What's your betting method for NFL?

[jesterson]

Not so much strategy per se, but what kinds of bets and how many games do you do each week?

This will only be my 2nd season doing this seriously, but last year I'd pick 2 or 3 "locks" to parlay the money line on with a large amount, and I'd do 1 or 2 5+ team, 6 pt teaser parlays for a small amount. It worked quite well, as most weeks my lock hit, and I hit a couple of the big parlays, one at 80-1.

Definitely though, I'm going to wait a couple weeks in before going at it seriously, it's such a different league in the first week from the rest of the year. Case in point, last year's Saints win over Carolina in week 1....but I'll probably toss around a little bit just for fun.

[McBa1n]

My strat is pretty straightforward.

I like to pick as close to gametime as possible, because of parity in the NFL - I have to see the team before I put money down on them, usually (I WON'T bet before Saturday no matter what, I don't remember the last one I picked pre-maturly other than the SB or the Chargers over the Skins where LT's touchdown in OT covered - and a FG would not have... I normally lose otherwise).

The other thing I do is find games where the monely line is 3 to 1 or worse against me and push a big part of my stake. It's risky as hell... I only lost a bit when GB beat ATL last year at 4 to 1 against me, but other than that, that's usually where I pay the bills...

It's good when sick teams play against teams that have people betting for them just to bet on them (dallas, pitts, miami) - you can get great moneylines in those games... People LOVE betting those teams because they want them to win - not because they think they have a chance. That = good for me.

But then again, I only make 1/week of those type of bets for obvious reasons... It's just hard to shop for the correct price sometimes... And having the discipline to walk away from short odds is paramount.

Generally, the moneyline is kindest until about week 6-7 in the NFL. If you do your homework and watch all the games and pay close attention, you should kill on the ML.
After that, people have caught onto trends - and so do the books... Then it takes a LOT more work to make the phat lewts.

[austintx05]

IMO - Everything i sports is situational. Looking for what side the value lies is key. I developed a system to create " my own line" or show a point edge a team had over the other. I would then compare this to the line Vegas sets. If I found a big enough edge, I would bite on it. It would probably take until week 4 or 5 before I can impliment it as home field advantage if factored in and it was developed on the basis of off/def production for the current year. Last years stats will do no good.

Aside from systems, I am very selective and try to pick my spots. For those who have read my plays in the bases room, you can tell I am fairly selective. Sometimes its hard enough picking 1 winner. Why try and pick 6 games where you will need to win 4 or better to make a profit over the juice?

I am anticipating this season and hopefully I can learn a great deal from experienced bettors.

[RageWizard]

My Strategy goes as follows:

1st Identify (1) game (either side or totals) that is what I consider the strongest on the board.
2nd Identify (2) other games (either side or totals) that I believe are also winners.
3rd Place a large investment (75% of the weeks amount) on the game identified in step 1.
4th Place (2) parlays with one items being the game identified
in step 1 and the other being the two games identified in step 2 for 12.5% each.

This system has worked well for me the last 7 years.

[Justin7]

After a few weeks, look for the team with the worst turnover differential. Bet on them.

Look for the team with the best turnover ration. Fade them.

If these two play, take out a mortgage.

[bigboydan]

I always like to watch which teams seem to play up and down to the compatishion for one thing. turnover ratio's, weather reports, east/west coast swings, and of course consensus numbers. thats just a few things i look for on top of the normal type stuff.