Breaking Down ATS Trends
By: SBR Staff
Betting on the situation is a staple among NFL handicappers. Some teams play better at home, while others revel in the adversity that is the road. A review of teams’ performances against the spread last season may be handy, but bettors should be aware of certain statistics that tend to even themselves out over the course of a few seasons. Here are some 2005 stats to learn from.
The Denver Broncos emerged as NFL handicappers’ favorite team last season, compiling an 11-4-1 mark against the spread. Denver went 4-1-1 ATS within the AFC West, and covered all three times they were getting points. The Broncos also saw 10 of their 16 regular-season games go over their posted totals.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants and Washington Redskins all went 10-5-1 vs. the number during the 2005 NFL regular season. Jacksonville compiled that profitable mark by coming through when many handicappers might not think they would. The Jags were 6-2 ATS on the road and a perfect 4-0 vs. the spread as underdogs. And Jacksonville, while thought of as a defensive-minded team, also ran up a somewhat surprising 10-5-1 over/under record, in part because 12 of their games had posted totals of 39 and less.
Kansas City covered the spread in seven of their eight homes games last year, and the Chiefs covered seven of eight games in which they were favored.
The Giants had similar numbers as KC, going 7-2 ATS at home (remember, they played a 'road game' vs. the Saints at The Meadowlands) and 9-3 when chalk.
Washington’s resurgence showed through with a 5-2-1 mark against the spread last year on the road, an 8-2 ATS mark as favorites, and a 5-1 record vs. the number within the NFC East.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers were particularly unkind to their financial backers last season. Pathetic Oakland went 5-11 against the number, 2-8 ATS as underdogs and a sorry 0-6 vs. the spread within the AFC West.
Philly labored through a 5-11 ATS season, going 1-5 vs. the spread within its home division, the NFC East. St. Louis was lousy across the board, going 5-11 against the number, 2-6 ATS at home, 2-6 ATS as favorites and 1-5 ATS within the NFC West.
New Orleans went a pocket-picking 5-10-1 vs. the spread and just 3-8-1 ATS as an underdog. And Green Bay, which lost five games straight up by a field goal or less, went 5-9-2 vs. the number, 1-5-1 ATS as chalk, and 0-5-1 ATS within the NFC North.
None of those five teams, you’ll notice, had even a .500 straight up record last season. Which goes to show that winning games leads to covering spreads.
Other interesting ATS numbers from last season include:
By: SBR Staff
Betting on the situation is a staple among NFL handicappers. Some teams play better at home, while others revel in the adversity that is the road. A review of teams’ performances against the spread last season may be handy, but bettors should be aware of certain statistics that tend to even themselves out over the course of a few seasons. Here are some 2005 stats to learn from.
The Denver Broncos emerged as NFL handicappers’ favorite team last season, compiling an 11-4-1 mark against the spread. Denver went 4-1-1 ATS within the AFC West, and covered all three times they were getting points. The Broncos also saw 10 of their 16 regular-season games go over their posted totals.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants and Washington Redskins all went 10-5-1 vs. the number during the 2005 NFL regular season. Jacksonville compiled that profitable mark by coming through when many handicappers might not think they would. The Jags were 6-2 ATS on the road and a perfect 4-0 vs. the spread as underdogs. And Jacksonville, while thought of as a defensive-minded team, also ran up a somewhat surprising 10-5-1 over/under record, in part because 12 of their games had posted totals of 39 and less.
Kansas City covered the spread in seven of their eight homes games last year, and the Chiefs covered seven of eight games in which they were favored.
The Giants had similar numbers as KC, going 7-2 ATS at home (remember, they played a 'road game' vs. the Saints at The Meadowlands) and 9-3 when chalk.
Washington’s resurgence showed through with a 5-2-1 mark against the spread last year on the road, an 8-2 ATS mark as favorites, and a 5-1 record vs. the number within the NFC East.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers were particularly unkind to their financial backers last season. Pathetic Oakland went 5-11 against the number, 2-8 ATS as underdogs and a sorry 0-6 vs. the spread within the AFC West.
Philly labored through a 5-11 ATS season, going 1-5 vs. the spread within its home division, the NFC East. St. Louis was lousy across the board, going 5-11 against the number, 2-6 ATS at home, 2-6 ATS as favorites and 1-5 ATS within the NFC West.
New Orleans went a pocket-picking 5-10-1 vs. the spread and just 3-8-1 ATS as an underdog. And Green Bay, which lost five games straight up by a field goal or less, went 5-9-2 vs. the number, 1-5-1 ATS as chalk, and 0-5-1 ATS within the NFC North.
None of those five teams, you’ll notice, had even a .500 straight up record last season. Which goes to show that winning games leads to covering spreads.
Other interesting ATS numbers from last season include:
- The Miami Dolphins, who won their last six games to finish at 9-7 straight up in head coach Nick Saban’s first season, went just 1-5 ATS within the AFC East.
- The Cincinnati Bengals, champions of the AFC North, went just 2-6 ATS at home but 6-1-1 vs. the number on the road.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers, who of course made that great road run through the AFC playoffs last season, went 6-2 ATS on the road during the regular season. In fact, over the past five seasons, Pittsburgh is 27-14-3 ATS (including playoff games) away from home.
- The Cleveland Browns, winners of just six games outright, went 3-1 ATS as favorites.
- The Indianapolis Colts were probably a bit overlined at home, going 3-5 ATS in Indy, but the Colts went 6-2 vs. the number on the road.
- The San Diego Chargers didn’t make the playoffs, but they helped supporters cash in by covering in three of the four games in which they were underdogs.
- Lovie Smith’s Chicago Bears were solid at Soldier Field, going 6-2 ATS at home, and the Bears cleaned up within their division, going 4-1-1 ATS vs. Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota.
- The Minnesota Vikings, 9-7 last year under difficult circumstances, went 6-2 vs. the spread at the Metrodome, 6-1 ATS as chalk and 5-1 ATS within their division.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, champions of the NFC South, went 4-1-1 within their division.
- The Carolina Panthers continued their winning ways while traveling, going 5-2-1 ATS on the road last season. So in four seasons under head coach John Fox, the Panthers are an amazing 26-11 (including playoff games) vs. the number away from home.
- The Seattle Seahawks were kind to bettors in situations, going 6-2 ATS at home, 8-4 vs. the number when favored, and 5-1 ATS within the NFC West.
- And the Arizona Cardinals went 4-2 ATS when favored last year, but just 2-8 vs. the spread when getting points.