CFL - Saskatchewan at Hamilton Aug 26th

[SBRforum Staff]

A CFL Over

Expect plenty of offense in Ontario this Saturday when Saskatchewan visits Hamilton for a CFL tilt.

By: Ron Raymond

http://www.phoenixsports.com

Sometimes it’s best to play right away against the team who just smoked you last game, as the wounds are still fresh and you get another kick at that cat!

Saskatchewan has just released their General Manager Roy Shivers, and Eric Tillman will be the new GM in Saskatchewan. Therefore, players who were comfortable under the old regime will consider this a new start under a new GM, and I expect a high scoring game. Plus, Hamilton needs to find a way to score points at Ivor Wynne, as they’ve only managed 22 points in their last three games at home and are averaging 9.0 points at home this season.

In fact, I don’t see this pattern continuing for long and we have two good solid CFL QB going here this Saturday. Points will not be a problem Saturday night at Ivor Wynne Stadium in Hamilton, Ontario.

Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as Home team as a Underdog - Vs Non-Division Opponent - Vs Non-Conference Opponent - With six days off - Coming off a game scoring 17 points or less - Outcome: The OVER is 9-4-1 for the Home Dog in this spot since ’96.

Forecast: Hamilton 29 Saskatchewan 28
Play: OVER 47.5

[Hulu]

I'd pass on this play myself. The logic that suggests a new GM equals a high-scoring game is a little strange to me. Yes it may inspire some players to play harder but that applies equally to the defence so to suggest that a high scoring game is inevitable is a huge leap in logic for me. Here are some things to consider.

-Saskatchewan's starting QB was knocked out last week with an apparent hyper-extended elbow and it is not known who will start this week. His backup, Marcus Crandle is capable but has not had a lot of practice reps.
-Hamilton's starting QB Jason Maas has only led the team to one TD and 2 FG in the last 8 quarters of play. He is nursing strained abdominal muscles. Also, a lingering shoulder injury is rumored to be affecting his deep ball ability.
-Hamilton's running game has been through a series of injuries
and neither Josh Ranek or Corey Holmes is 100% healthy.

The only thing that I see in favour of the over is the fact that Hamilton's secondary is a patchwork that has changed every game this season. And for this game Jason Goss, arguably the teams best starting defensive back, is suspended while attending to some family matter.

This game will be lopsided alright but the only question is whether Hamilton can score enough points to bring the total over. Given their inconsistant play this year (especially at home where they have scored a grand total of 2 points in their last 2 games) I can't see how anyone would buy into the over on this one.

The safer play would be SASK -4.5 -105 but for me this game is a pass.

[bigboydan]

i don't think i could bet on Hamilton in this game, although i'd lean twords the under in this spot myself.

[Hulu]

More info for this contest...

-Hamilton is still going to miss the services of their leading tackler DB Tay Cody as well as starting safety Wayne Shaw (in addition to the absence of Jason Goss noted above)
-Hamilton's starting middle linebacker Bobby Brooks is out with a sprained ankle and guess what..his backup Augustin Barrenechea is on the bench too leaving Steve Josue a former 7th round selection of the Green Bay Packers to get his first start at MLB, not his natural position.

With the cats defence this banged up, Saskatchewan -4.5 -105 (Pinnacle) is looking pretty appealing right now.

I should also note that I am a cats season ticket holder. I normally hate betting against my favourite team but the forecast is for rain, heavy at times. Dammit, if I have to sit there and watch my team get killed in the pouring rain...I'm gonna make some money doing it.

[crackerjack]

Thanks for the info Hulu. Heavy raining will affect the total, so I'd steer clear of the over, but I might follow your play and take Sask...

[Hulu]

Have to make a couple of corrections on game day.

It was not Saskatchewan's starting QB that was knocked out last week...he was already injured and it was backup Marcus Crandle who went down with the hyper-extended elbow early in the game. So it will be their 3rd string QB Rocky Butler who gets the nod here. Butler has some starting experience under his belt in his 5 years with the Roughriders and has excellent mobility and makes few big mistakes.

Also, the weather forecast has changed to overcast with only 40% chance of showers. I'm still bringing my black and gold poncho though

My pick is still Sask -4.5. Hamilton's patchwork defensive backfield and completely inept offence unfortunately make this one look like a rout.

Interesting fact...since Billionaire Bob Young bought the Ti-Cats in 2004, it has not rained at a single home game. The year before his purchase of the team, it rained at 8 of the nine regular season home games.

[crackerjack]

Good call Hulu. Over will probably hit as well, so Ron deserves some props, but you were spot on with your analysis of this matchup.

[Hulu]

Thanks crackerjack. Yes the game went over as well but thanks to only one team. Hamilton scored only 8 points and none of them on offense. The rain held off too for the most part which was nice.