Vegas Dave's NFL Picks Week 16 (Every Game w/ Write Up)
Getting these out very early this week, since there is a Saturday game and because I'm in a giving mood with the Christmas spirit and all.
Good luck this weekend!
THURSDAY
Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)
SATURDAY
Baltimore (+4.0) @ Dallas (-4.0)
This is a tough game to call, as Dallas has seemingly found a groove and will be very difficult to beat, especially at home. But I don't think Baltimore should be thrown out due to last week; they just ran into the league's toughest defense. Dallas has been picking it up on defense, but they are still nowhere near as stingy as Pittsburgh, and Baltimore should be able to score on them. Baltimore's defense is still as stout and scary as ever, even if they did fold on the last drive of the Steelers game. I think asking Dallas to win this game by more than 4 is asking a lot; I can see either Baltimore winning this game outright, or Dallas winning on a late FG or go ahead TD. I don't really see a comfortable Dallas win here, so I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
SUNDAY
Miami (-3.5) @ Kansas City (+3.5)
The first of many of the philosophy picks I talked about in the intro. Miami needs the win, Kansas City has nothing to play for and nothing to lose; I'll take the loose team in the spoiler role.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
New Orleans (-7.0) @ Detroit (+7.0)
As tempted as I am to take Detroit here trying to avoid the winless season, I'd also argue that New Orleans, now out of the playoff race, is almost equally motivated to not being the first team to lose to these guys. Indoors, on turf, the Saints should be able to run their offense as they please and cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
After watching Ken Dorsey play football, its pretty clear to me that the Cleveland Browns offense is done for the year. Not that Ryan Fitzpatrick is much better, but the Bengals are coming off of an upset win over Washington and I believe they have what it takes to build on that win and hand their rivals a loss this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
San Diego (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
This philosophy pick is another tailor made one, much like the ill-fated Jacksonville game was Thursday night. Everybody is betting on Tampa Bay here, as San Diego has been a big disappointment all year. Tampa Bay is 6 - 0 at home, San Diego is 0 - 3 against NFC South opponents, all reasons why the public is pounding Tampa Bay. But you know one of my favorite philosophy picks is betting against a team that has played in 3 straight divisional games; and Tampa Bay has done just that, playing three tough division games back to back to back against New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta. The Bucs should be pretty bruised up after that stretch, especially this late in the season. They are ripe for an upset, and I think San Diego gets it here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
Pittsburgh (-2.0) @ Tennessee (+2.0)
Another game simply too tough to call. Two excellent defenses, playing for home field advantage, should be a very gritty football game. I'm going to take the Steelers, simply because you can not move the football on the ground against them, and QB VS. QB, they definitely have the edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
San Francisco (-5.0) @ St. Louis (+5.0)
As a general rule, I like to bet home underdogs in division rivals this late in the season... but two teams completely out of it, this game comes down to nothing more than pride. And if the second half of the season is any indication, San Francisco has got a lot more of it. Besides, I've got enough philosophy picks this week!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
Arizona (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
7.5 seems like a lot of points, but I really can't bring myself to take Arizona. Heading up to the bitter cokl that is way out of their element, it will be very easy as the game wears on for them to say to themselves "We are already in the playoffs, who needs this?" and continue to get pounded by a team that is playing for their playoff lives. They don't meet the philosophy criteria because Arizona is NOT a lowly opponent.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
Buffalo (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)
Lowly opponent with nothing left to play for versus team that desperately needs this win. Get used to this recipe. As Buffalo showed us against the Jets last week, they aren't just going to roll over; they have a little fight left in the tank. As a plus side of being on the Bills, if Tampa Bay does beat San Diego, Denver will see this and know they have their playoff spot wrapped up, and they can rest this week. If San Diego wins, they will be that much more under pressure and prone to make mistakes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
New York Jets (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
I don't even have to waste my time with a write up on this one, do I? Same story as the others, helped by the fact that the Jets have been slumping big time, and Seattle has perennially been a great home team. Also, the Jets have already lost when traveling out west to San Diego, Oakland, and San Francisco; would them struggling in this game really be a huge shocker?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
Houston (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)
Oakland has, unfortunately for me, mailed this season in. Houston, meanwhile, has been surging. The philosophy part of me says okay, Houston just beat Tennessee in an emotional game, they are due for a big letdown... and Oakland was just crushed last week in embarrassing fashion, they will be out for payback this week... but honestly, how many times can I make compelling arguments for the Raiders only for them to go out and lose by 20+ every week? I just can't do it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Washington (+5.0)
Taking the road less traveled isn't always fun. Trying to figure out in your mind how a team that has been cruising along as well as the Eagles have is going to have trouble with a team like Washington (who just lost to Cinci last week) is awfully tough. Actually picking the Redskins? Even tougher. But this stadium will be rocking with the chance to eliminate their hated rivals from playoff contention. Especially after their loss last week, Washington should put together one of the best games of their season next week; and it should be enough to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
Tough game between two hungry teams. I'm going to take the Vikings though; they are seemingly on a mission, Tavaris Jackson looked good last week, and the team seems to be clicking on both sides of the ball. In Atlanta I might go the other way, but this city is hungry for the playoffs and the building should be rocking pretty hard. I think Minnesota will find a way to come out on top in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
Carolina (+3.0) @ New York Giants (-3.0)
The Giants are beat up and broken, as I knew they would be eventually after the daunting schedule they have faced. Without Brandon Jacobs, they just aren't the same dominant team. Even with his likely return Sunday, he will be nowhere close to 100%. Like Tampa Bay, the Giants have played in 3 straight division rivalry games and are now favored, a spot that I instantly bet against. It rings even truer in a division like the NFC East, which is arguable the most physical in football. I don't think the Giants will have their best effort in them Sunday, and Carolina has the capability to capitalize on it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina
MONDAY
Green Bay (+4.0) @ Chicago (-4.0)
I suppose this game could arguably meet the same criteria that led me to take Jacksonville, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Seattle, as Green Bay is done for and the Bears are fighting for their playoff lives. But in the games mentioned, all but Buffalo were at home, which plays a huge part in what makes them so tempting. And Buffalo is getting a touchdown. Green Bay at only +4.0 here just isn't tempting enough to take. This may come back to haunt me, but I believe Chicago matches up well against Green Bay, and they should win this game and cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago
Good luck this weekend!
THE INTRO
Well its tough to find a much more brutal way to lose money than that Jaguars loss last night.
But it still illustrates a point that you will see is very prevalent as the season comes to a close; teams that have nothing left to play for often give teams that have everything left to play for huge fits.
There will be a lot of philosophy picks this week, because while everyone else will be betting these teams because they "need wins and the other team doesn't care", I'll be picking against them.
Last week we saw teams with nothing left to play for go 6 - 2 against the spread against teams fighting for something.
Thursday night, we saw the Jags winning 24 - 14 at the end of 3, and it took a minor miracle for the Colts to cover the spread. Not every team will get so lucky, and not every team has Peyton Manning.
Embrace the chaos. This is what makes the NFL so fun.
And for you college fans, I have this week's bowl games covered in this newsletter as well.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 6 - 8 - 2 (.429)
Without the spread: 12 - 4 - 0 (.750)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 114 - 104 - 6 (.523)
Without the spread: 143 - 80 - 1 (.641)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 - 6 - 0 (.750)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
Well its tough to find a much more brutal way to lose money than that Jaguars loss last night.
But it still illustrates a point that you will see is very prevalent as the season comes to a close; teams that have nothing left to play for often give teams that have everything left to play for huge fits.
There will be a lot of philosophy picks this week, because while everyone else will be betting these teams because they "need wins and the other team doesn't care", I'll be picking against them.
Last week we saw teams with nothing left to play for go 6 - 2 against the spread against teams fighting for something.
Thursday night, we saw the Jags winning 24 - 14 at the end of 3, and it took a minor miracle for the Colts to cover the spread. Not every team will get so lucky, and not every team has Peyton Manning.
Embrace the chaos. This is what makes the NFL so fun.
And for you college fans, I have this week's bowl games covered in this newsletter as well.
THE RECORD
Last Week
With the spread: 6 - 8 - 2 (.429)
Without the spread: 12 - 4 - 0 (.750)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 1 - 0 - 0 (1.000)
Season
With the spread: 114 - 104 - 6 (.523)
Without the spread: 143 - 80 - 1 (.641)
^^Philosophical Picks^^: 18 - 6 - 0 (.750)
THE PICKS
* - Indicates Upset Pick
^ - Indicates Philosophical Pick
THURSDAY
Indianapolis (-6.0) @ Jacksonville (+6.0)
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Jacksonville (Loss)
SATURDAY
Baltimore (+4.0) @ Dallas (-4.0)
This is a tough game to call, as Dallas has seemingly found a groove and will be very difficult to beat, especially at home. But I don't think Baltimore should be thrown out due to last week; they just ran into the league's toughest defense. Dallas has been picking it up on defense, but they are still nowhere near as stingy as Pittsburgh, and Baltimore should be able to score on them. Baltimore's defense is still as stout and scary as ever, even if they did fold on the last drive of the Steelers game. I think asking Dallas to win this game by more than 4 is asking a lot; I can see either Baltimore winning this game outright, or Dallas winning on a late FG or go ahead TD. I don't really see a comfortable Dallas win here, so I'll take the points.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Baltimore
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Dallas
SUNDAY
Miami (-3.5) @ Kansas City (+3.5)
The first of many of the philosophy picks I talked about in the intro. Miami needs the win, Kansas City has nothing to play for and nothing to lose; I'll take the loose team in the spoiler role.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Kansas City
New Orleans (-7.0) @ Detroit (+7.0)
As tempted as I am to take Detroit here trying to avoid the winless season, I'd also argue that New Orleans, now out of the playoff race, is almost equally motivated to not being the first team to lose to these guys. Indoors, on turf, the Saints should be able to run their offense as they please and cover this spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New Orleans
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New Orleans
Cincinnati (+3.0) @ Cleveland (-3.0)
After watching Ken Dorsey play football, its pretty clear to me that the Cleveland Browns offense is done for the year. Not that Ryan Fitzpatrick is much better, but the Bengals are coming off of an upset win over Washington and I believe they have what it takes to build on that win and hand their rivals a loss this Sunday.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: *Cincinnati
San Diego (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
This philosophy pick is another tailor made one, much like the ill-fated Jacksonville game was Thursday night. Everybody is betting on Tampa Bay here, as San Diego has been a big disappointment all year. Tampa Bay is 6 - 0 at home, San Diego is 0 - 3 against NFC South opponents, all reasons why the public is pounding Tampa Bay. But you know one of my favorite philosophy picks is betting against a team that has played in 3 straight divisional games; and Tampa Bay has done just that, playing three tough division games back to back to back against New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta. The Bucs should be pretty bruised up after that stretch, especially this late in the season. They are ripe for an upset, and I think San Diego gets it here.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Diego
Pittsburgh (-2.0) @ Tennessee (+2.0)
Another game simply too tough to call. Two excellent defenses, playing for home field advantage, should be a very gritty football game. I'm going to take the Steelers, simply because you can not move the football on the ground against them, and QB VS. QB, they definitely have the edge.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Pittsburgh
San Francisco (-5.0) @ St. Louis (+5.0)
As a general rule, I like to bet home underdogs in division rivals this late in the season... but two teams completely out of it, this game comes down to nothing more than pride. And if the second half of the season is any indication, San Francisco has got a lot more of it. Besides, I've got enough philosophy picks this week!
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: San Francisco
Arizona (+7.5) @ New England (-7.5)
7.5 seems like a lot of points, but I really can't bring myself to take Arizona. Heading up to the bitter cokl that is way out of their element, it will be very easy as the game wears on for them to say to themselves "We are already in the playoffs, who needs this?" and continue to get pounded by a team that is playing for their playoff lives. They don't meet the philosophy criteria because Arizona is NOT a lowly opponent.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: New England
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New England
Buffalo (+7.0) @ Denver (-7.0)
Lowly opponent with nothing left to play for versus team that desperately needs this win. Get used to this recipe. As Buffalo showed us against the Jets last week, they aren't just going to roll over; they have a little fight left in the tank. As a plus side of being on the Bills, if Tampa Bay does beat San Diego, Denver will see this and know they have their playoff spot wrapped up, and they can rest this week. If San Diego wins, they will be that much more under pressure and prone to make mistakes.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Denver
New York Jets (-4.5) @ Seattle (+4.5)
I don't even have to waste my time with a write up on this one, do I? Same story as the others, helped by the fact that the Jets have been slumping big time, and Seattle has perennially been a great home team. Also, the Jets have already lost when traveling out west to San Diego, Oakland, and San Francisco; would them struggling in this game really be a huge shocker?
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Seattle
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: New York Jets
Houston (-7.0) @ Oakland (+7.0)
Oakland has, unfortunately for me, mailed this season in. Houston, meanwhile, has been surging. The philosophy part of me says okay, Houston just beat Tennessee in an emotional game, they are due for a big letdown... and Oakland was just crushed last week in embarrassing fashion, they will be out for payback this week... but honestly, how many times can I make compelling arguments for the Raiders only for them to go out and lose by 20+ every week? I just can't do it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Houston
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Houston
Philadelphia (-5.0) @ Washington (+5.0)
Taking the road less traveled isn't always fun. Trying to figure out in your mind how a team that has been cruising along as well as the Eagles have is going to have trouble with a team like Washington (who just lost to Cinci last week) is awfully tough. Actually picking the Redskins? Even tougher. But this stadium will be rocking with the chance to eliminate their hated rivals from playoff contention. Especially after their loss last week, Washington should put together one of the best games of their season next week; and it should be enough to cover.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Washington
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Philadelphia
Atlanta (+3.0) @ Minnesota (-3.0)
Tough game between two hungry teams. I'm going to take the Vikings though; they are seemingly on a mission, Tavaris Jackson looked good last week, and the team seems to be clicking on both sides of the ball. In Atlanta I might go the other way, but this city is hungry for the playoffs and the building should be rocking pretty hard. I think Minnesota will find a way to come out on top in this one.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Minnesota
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Minnesota
Carolina (+3.0) @ New York Giants (-3.0)
The Giants are beat up and broken, as I knew they would be eventually after the daunting schedule they have faced. Without Brandon Jacobs, they just aren't the same dominant team. Even with his likely return Sunday, he will be nowhere close to 100%. Like Tampa Bay, the Giants have played in 3 straight division rivalry games and are now favored, a spot that I instantly bet against. It rings even truer in a division like the NFC East, which is arguable the most physical in football. I don't think the Giants will have their best effort in them Sunday, and Carolina has the capability to capitalize on it.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*Carolina
MONDAY
Green Bay (+4.0) @ Chicago (-4.0)
I suppose this game could arguably meet the same criteria that led me to take Jacksonville, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Seattle, as Green Bay is done for and the Bears are fighting for their playoff lives. But in the games mentioned, all but Buffalo were at home, which plays a huge part in what makes them so tempting. And Buffalo is getting a touchdown. Green Bay at only +4.0 here just isn't tempting enough to take. This may come back to haunt me, but I believe Chicago matches up well against Green Bay, and they should win this game and cover the spread.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Chicago
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Chicago