The single best NFL handicapper I've ever known says SF wins in a blowout

[london2k]

Obviously, you have to make your own decisions about who to bet in the SB. But I have monitored a LOT of NFL handicappers over the years and almost ALL of them, from Boxslayer to Root lose money in the long run. One guy whose plays I DO bet on isn't a tout at all. He's a guy I know who has a Masters degree in statistics. He has a formula that he came up with several years ago that has been phenomenal over the four years I've known him. His picks aren't for sale, and he himself doesn't bet a dime, except in his office pool.....but the guy is amazing. He told me before last weeks games that he made Baltimore the likely winner over NE and that getting +300 was "criminal insanity on the part of Vegas".

For the SB, his line is SF -23. Take it or leave it, I am merely passing it on. Personally, I would never in a million years bet against this guy, but I realize that many people here are betting Baltimore, so all I can say is good luck to all of us, and may the best team win.

p.s. The Hank Stram mechanical Superbowl system, which is almost 90% over the last 30 years is also calling for a huge SF win. I wouldn't bet ANY mechanical system myself, but it's just an interesting side note.

[Slimpickens]

Sounds like a smart guy. Ive got San Fran winning 37-10. I think they cover the -23 LOL.

[Catchn_Picks]

And the Prediction Machine just made the Drudge Report with their SB prediction.


http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/201...er-bowl-xlvii/


Computer Model Says 49ers Over Ravens In Super Bowl XLVII

By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Super Bowl XLVII will only be played once, and it will be on the field in New Orleans. But with two weeks to fill in between the championship games and the Super Bowl, there’s some time to run some numbers.
PredictionMachine.com, a website that predicts the outcome of sporting events based on computer models, ran more than just “some” numbers. They ran Sunday’s 49ers vs. Ravens match-up through their system 50,000 times to see what the most likely outcome of the game will be.
The 49ers won the game 66.9% of the time, and scored an average of seven points more than the Ravens in the simulations (28.6 to 21.3), with San Francisco outgaining the Ravens by an average of 85 yards per game.
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco completed an average of 20.9 of 35.3 passes per game, with 1.3 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions. The 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick completed an average of 17.2 of 28.8 passes, for 1.6 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions, and rushed for 38 yards.
The 49ers get the edge in the following matchups: San Francisco run offense vs. Baltimore run defense, San Francisco pass offense vs. Baltimore pass defense, and the Baltimore run offense vs. San Francisco run defense (they note this as the difference maker). The only advantage that Baltimore has is their special teams.
This particular computer model has predicted the correct winner of seven of the last nine Super Bowls.More information about the simulations can be found at PredictionMachine.com.

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[Da Manster!]

Tell your buddy that I will gladly take the Ravens (+23)!....

[BigDofBA]

A few things that should concern anyone that follows the OP's advice.

1) This genious bettor never wagers real money on games....Why not if he is so good?

2) He is predicting a 23 point San Francisco win. Not going to happen.

[tto827]

A few things that should concern anyone that follows the OP's advice.

1) This genious bettor never wagers real money on games....Why not if he is so good?

2) He is predicting a 23 point San Francisco win. Not going to happen.

Also how accurate can a formula be that says SF is a 23 point favorite?

[kingz]

you sir are a dumbass. get details about the algorithm or dont speak

GG

[Slimpickens]

A few things that should concern anyone that follows the OP's advice.

1) This genious bettor never wagers real money on games....Why not if he is so good?

2) He is predicting a 23 point San Francisco win. Not going to happen.

Just to be clear Im not following anyones advice.

[lakerboy]

A few things that should concern anyone that follows the OP's advice.

1) This genious bettor never wagers real money on games....Why not if he is so good?

2) He is predicting a 23 point San Francisco win. Not going to happen.

you are predicting it wont happen. i could say that you will be wrong as well.

[pdubb86]

[london2k]

A few things that should concern anyone that follows the OP's advice.

1) This genious bettor never wagers real money on games....Why not if he is so good?

2) He is predicting a 23 point San Francisco win. Not going to happen.

1) There are actually quite a few good handicappers who themselves don't bet. The best ncaa basketball handicapper (better even than RAS at its peak) that I've come across was a geeky young guy on the East coast. Old timers who were "inside the loop" so to speak, will recall "Bobby" from the late 80s. Lots of wise guys got his plays and passed them around......but the guy himself didn't bet a penny, despite being rock solid on college hoops.

2) "Not going to happen".....who says? You have no idea what the final score will be, and in fact lots of superbowls have ended up with huge margins. If for some reason you don't like the fact that one handicapper calls for an SF blowout, just bet more on Baltimore. The money will probably be lost, but somebody has to lose.

[M.W.]

Obviously, you have to make your own decisions about who to bet in the SB. But I have monitored a LOT of NFL handicappers over the years and almost ALL of them, from Boxslayer to Root lose money in the long run. One guy whose plays I DO bet on isn't a tout at all. He's a guy I know who has a Masters degree in statistics. He has a formula that he came up with several years ago that has been phenomenal over the four years I've known him. His picks aren't for sale, and he himself doesn't bet a dime, except in his office pool.....but the guy is amazing. He told me before last weeks games that he made Baltimore the likely winner over NE and that getting +300 was "criminal insanity on the part of Vegas".

For the SB, his line is SF -23.

Actual final:

Balto 34
SF 31