Beating the closing line calculation

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  • JeseleyH
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-04-15
    • 4

    Beating the closing line calculation

    Hi,

    I was wondering, the perquisite to winning long term is beating the closing line, but how do you calculate by how much % you beat the closing line? Yes rather newbish question but if anyone can explain the calculation then would be appreciated.

    As an example I have a bet that I took at 1.85 and it closed at 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports. I beat the closing line by how much though? Did I beat it by more than by at least 2% which is the Pinnancle's margin?

    The way I was thinking is just divide by 1 to give percentage, with 1.78 at 56% and 1.85 at 54%, is that the right way? And is so, basically at that closing line I'm just 'equalling' Pinny's margin of 2% and long term wouldn't make any profit really and would break even or so?

    Thanks in advance guys,
    Cheers.
  • Waterstpub87
    SBR MVP
    • 09-09-09
    • 4102

    #2
    I'm going to convert to American odds because that is what I am familiar with.

    You bet like -118, it closed at -128. If pinnacle quotes -105/-105 pricing, with 5 cents on both sides. The vig free close would be -123/123.

    So you got -118, beating the close by 5 cents. This would be you having approximately a 2.5% hold.

    In real life, you actually beat it by slightly more than that because 1.85 = -117.65, and the close was -128.21

    Comment

    • Bill Dozer
      www.twitter.com/BillDozer
      • 07-12-05
      • 10894

      #3
      A helpful tool is the half point calc. It gives you a general idea of how much you need to beat the spread by to be in the + in different sports.

      Comment

      • JeseleyH
        SBR Rookie
        • 12-04-15
        • 4

        #4
        Thanks guys, now I was wondering about lines in general.

        Are closing lines as indicative of your long term results in low liquid markets? I'm talking specifically about a market where for example one tipster has big affect, and his pick is going cause usual drop of 10-20% of odds, but after years of profit he has a bad year, the market and the odds wouldnt adjust much as people would pile on his tips, therefore the closing odds wouldn't reflect the actual probability.

        Just in general, would I be right to assume that the lower the liquidity the more subjective the % closing line is?

        Comment

        • Waterstpub87
          SBR MVP
          • 09-09-09
          • 4102

          #5
          Originally posted by JeseleyH
          Thanks guys, now I was wondering about lines in general.

          Are closing lines as indicative of your long term results in low liquid markets? I'm talking specifically about a market where for example one tipster has big affect, and his pick is going cause usual drop of 10-20% of odds, but after years of profit he has a bad year, the market and the odds wouldnt adjust much as people would pile on his tips, therefore the closing odds wouldn't reflect the actual probability.

          Just in general, would I be right to assume that the lower the liquidity the more subjective the % closing line is?
          The theory is that, Yes, in smaller markets it would matter less.

          Easy way to test:

          Find which games during season moved substantially
          Take the opener in games that moved substrantially
          If you win a significant amount of money, it would signal that beating the closing line works in this market

          Comment

          • laprikon
            SBR Rookie
            • 06-06-18
            • 18

            #6
            error

            Originally posted by JeseleyH
            Hi,

            I was wondering, the perquisite to winning long term is beating the closing line, but how do you calculate by how much % you beat the closing line? Yes rather newbish question but if anyone can explain the calculation then would be appreciated.

            As an example I have a bet that I took at 1.85 and it closed at 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports. I beat the closing line by how much though? Did I beat it by more than by at least 2% which is the Pinnancle's margin?

            The way I was thinking is just divide by 1 to give percentage, with 1.78 at 56% and 1.85 at 54%, is that the right way? And is so, basically at that closing line I'm just 'equalling' Pinny's margin of 2% and long term wouldn't make any profit really and would break even or so?

            Thanks in advance guys,
            Cheers.
            i can recommend you undedogchance tracker you can find it at MB site

            Comment

            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388189

              #7
              Beating closers still does not mean your going to win , most people do not have the bankrolls to hang in their when things go bad

              Beating closers might be beneficial long term but bankrolls will hurt that theory

              Comment

              • byronbb
                SBR MVP
                • 11-13-08
                • 3067

                #8
                you can use https://sportsbettingcalcs.com/ to make no-vig lines. No-vig the pinny ML close consider this the "true price" compare it with your bet. So getting +105 on a -105/-105 which is no vig of +100 is worth 2.5% in EV as per the ROI converter. Then you can do things like correctly size your wager with using a 1/4th kelly stake.

                Comment

                • BeatTheJerk
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 08-19-07
                  • 31794

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Bill Dozer
                  A helpful tool is the half point calc. It gives you a general idea of how much you need to beat the spread by to be in the + in different sports.
                  Bill you failed me when you tried to recover my 18k from Sportsbook.com, shame on you pal & f u c k off. Maybe if the money was @ Betislands I could’ve got it back before they went belly up. SBR pushed betislands on us like a whore in heat & they ultimately stole millions from customers.

                  Comment

                  • lonegambler23
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-22-16
                    • 9761

                    #10
                    Originally posted by jjgold
                    Beating closers still does not mean your going to win , most people do not have the bankrolls to hang in their when things go bad

                    Beating closers might be beneficial long term but bankrolls will hurt that theory
                    grow a sack and start winning gold. enough with the negative nancy

                    Comment

                    • jjgold
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 07-20-05
                      • 388189

                      #11

                      Comment

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