I think my brother is a really good punter

[whateverman]

I don't know anything about sports. I don't follow it either.




But my brother is watching sports on TV, tracking scores, playing sports, betting on it all the time. He used to bet on like 15 games and hit like 13 of them. So he was allways losing or maybe being break even. But then I realized maybe he would make plus if he bets on single games. So I build him a webpage where he tracks all of his picks. I will not show the url here cause it's probably against the forum rules and it's not even important. I started this thread cause need some help and I have a few questions at the end of this post.




His ROI on all games is 13.11%.
Over 50% of his picks is on over 2.5 goals in soccer. His ROI there is 21.06%.
His overall socer ROI is 15.11%.
Basketball ROI is 3.6%.
Hockey ROI is 9.04.




His biggest downswing was losing 4 games in a row.
He is also saying that he was hitting bad lately case there were not so many soccer games cause the season is over and lots of them were friendly games wich he don't like cause they are very unpredictable




He allways bets the same amount on games and that's 1/20 of the bankroll. I want to invest some money now but I am still scared cause the sample we got is only for 3 months.




Now here are my questions:
1. Do you think I should wait more? How much do you think a good sample size would be?
2. What do you think a safe bankroll management would be?
3. Most of the bets are placed on betfair or Bet365. Are there any better bookies out there with good odds for soccer?
4.Do you have any thoughts about or suggestions about our plan?

[CraigConey]

Learn how to spell and proofread before you wager your money. Or don't. Maintain your shit level of literacy, I don't care.

[easyliving]

I used to play soccer back in high school and was told by the football coach I had a big foot and I would make a great punter, but I was too lazy as it was the same time of the year as soccer, So even today I still consider myself a good Punter as well

[jetsjets1028]

then try him out..

[whateverman]

I gave him 200€ to play with, but just so that it's more interestnig than play bets with no money. But I think I will wait some more for the big bucks.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Post all plays on here or never happened

[statnerds]

He allways bets the same amount on games and that's 1/20 of the bankroll. I want to invest some money now but I am still scared cause the sample we got is only for 3 months.

5%? Wow.

Variance.

Broke.

And then your dilemma will have resolved itself.

[James D]

Post all plays on here or never happened

If you post his plays in the forum you will get some serious input in respect to his ability. Post his plays once he makes them if possible

[James D]

Learn how to spell and proofread before you wager your money. Or don't. Maintain your shit level of literacy, I don't care.

I assume english is not his first language, no need to be a smart ass.

[AribaAriba]

tout alert, newb beware

[kick10]

post the play n we'll monitor it

[jankee]

whateverman,
Has 1/2 of octopus Paul reincarnated in your brother?

[stevenash]

I once kicked a 44 yard FG.
Can't punt very well though

[Topo]

Lower your bet percentage. Shop around for books with the best lines. Sbobet, 188bet, and Pinnacle are generally the best. You may want to stick with Bet365 if you take advantage of their bonus offer and enjoy live betting. Start slow, and make sure the edge is a permanent skill before you raise the stakes.

[shevabets]

5%? Wow.

Variance.

Broke.

And then your dilemma will have resolved itself.

Not necessarily. Just don't raise the stakes (e.g. keep betting 5% of the original, not the updated bankroll balance) and be highly selective. 5 plays a month, not 5 plays a day.

[Noleafclover]

Not necessarily. Just don't raise the stakes (e.g. keep betting 5% of the original, not the updated bankroll balance) and be highly selective. 5 plays a month, not 5 plays a day.

Exactly. I bet 5% in NFL, but make 40 plays where some people make 120. You mentioned your bet size, but not your amount of bets. If you bet more than 1 play a day, I'd say the critics are right. But if you're very selective, you have shown a high rate of return so far, and bet sizing is one rule I intend to break myself.

I waited 2 years for NFL betting. Intend to wait at least one year in other sports.

Edit: I do disagree with shevabets on one thing, you should raise stakes at intervals to reflect your updated bankroll, say 50/25% profit, depending on your risk tolerance.