350-290 Wash spread Live
150-246 Wash ML +164
32-29 almost 4 mins until HT
150-246 Wash ML +164
32-29 almost 4 mins until HT
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I was going to type up reasons why but the main point is if you look at tomorrow’s card and filter for Pac 12 you’ll feel USC has to win bc it sets up perfectly for USC vs UCLA. I like to bet against this when the spread and % tickets lines up, but that’s just my thought process (a lot more applies).
The issue is that it’s been so hard to bet any live dog at worst odds than it opened at (+3.5 live here vs +6.5 open)*. When I made the bet I expecting the line to stay around +3.5 going in to the half — but wash took a lead and now it’s basically a pick em’. I prefer this 9/10 situations (especially since the tickets are on USC) but here I wanted to still see USC at a premium during the half (to give ppl betting the other side some peer pressure to add/ stick with it). That said, the original line -6.5 USC -300 ML pregame is still a realistic price people would play on the other side.
So it will come down to who’s chasing what here.
*Louisville at half last night was a pick. George Town got pushed down going in to half. Rhode Island tonight right off the tip, etc.Comment -
Took me forever to write that but it’s 46 wash vs 47 USC. I would think it stays like around +3.5/1.5 (maybe goes to +5.5/6.5 a few times) until the 3 minute mark and then either USC takes over or Wash pulls through. If wash wins it’ll be a barn burnerComment -
Just another example of live betting a dog at worst odds than it originally openedComment -
I hope someone faded this last night. Was I kiddin ?
Potential fade of the year postComment