gonzaga -17 @ santa clara??

[gojetsgomoxies]

santa clara has been playing really well.

any thoughts as to how gonzaga does against different tiers of WCC, different levels of spreads and home/away....

i will do some work and post it here.

can santa clara backdoor a cover at -17, or is that too small a point spread?.... tend to not think of backdoor in basketball. more ncaa football

[Wesley]

They played against each other @Gonzaga two weeks ago and Gonzaga won by 50...

[gojetsgomoxies]

did some work on killersports.com...

gonzaga has been good since (and including 2016) ATS vs. WCC teams (excluding WCC tourney in vegas)... not great though....... and i just chose 2016 onwards randomly. no explicit data mining (except perhaps in my mind)....

basically gonzaga is +10 ATS (win-loss difference)... that are 13-6 ATS with spread -12>spread>-20..... so that's much of their ATS value over the period.

i will have more but gonzaga has been very good ATS vs. other top and good middle-ish WCC teams... bad ATS vs. bottom feeder portland.

my strong LEAN is that this is sweet spot for gonzaga........ ATS spread is still consistent with gonzaga playing hard to the very end..... -25 points vs. mediocre WCC on road would scare me.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Wesley, thx, i didn't remember that game score/result...... and hadn't looked it up yet.

104-54............ shockingly, gonzaga wasn't red-hot on the 3 point %. just a bit above their average (if even that).. santa clara was 12.5% on 3 point shooting.

i'm curious on the number of possessions...... if santa clara plays up-tempo then gonzo must be a lock here.

[gojetsgomoxies]

santa clara hanging around nicely at halftime... just to be clear, my lean was gonzo

[cmatth1326]

Heavy on Gonzaga half time. They need style points wins regardless of what Ken Pom says.