ACC Sunday Showdown...

[FlyinAir]

Pitt @ Miami 5:00 CT

Really excited about this one as Pittsburgh has been playing really well lately, plays great tempo on offense and is coming off a win AT Chapel Hill, but at this rate who hasn’t beaten UNC? (Clemson just broke a 0-59 streak last night). Which just made me look to see how Pittsburgh does coming off an Dog Win in conference play and they’re 1-10 9.1% SU and 2-9 18.2% ATS coming off such performance. Not only that, Pittsburgh is 1-8-1 ATS coming off a 70+ point performance in their last 10. If you’re a true basketball bettor you’d know Pittsburgh is horrible on the road in conference play over the last four seasons, posting an 2-27 6% Straight up away conference record, but they can’t be that bad right? How’re they facing teams coming off B2B losses? Pittsburgh is 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 situations. Pitt’s also lost 11 straight when playing on the road with a total of 140 or higher. Miami FL though, is coming off two losses as mentioned vs two top 10 teams in the country though, so we can balance those out. Miami though has only played 3 home games since before thanksgiving and in each of those games it’s been 88,91 then 62 point loss vs Duke with plenty of 70+ point games to start the season as well. Point being this Miami team is statistically about even with Pittsburgh in pace but Miami simply has better guard play in Chris Lykes and number two man Dejan Vasiljevic who absolutely turn up when playing at home. A few situations I liked about Miami was Miami playing as a Favorite coming off atleast two ATSLosses they’re 25-5 83% Straight Up and just about even ATS. If you’re this far understand our favorite system for our wager: Miami is 30-7 81% Straight Up (15-1 SU L16) coming off a Dog Loss and playing as a Home Favorite. If you were you throw the first month of conference play parameter on that situation it moves to 9-1 SU. We’ll take the better guards at home by a bucket

TAKE: Miami -2.5 -110

[FlyinAir]

2 Sunday Big Ten Matchups

BIG TEN


Michigan St / Purdue 12:00 CT
The first B10 game kicks off first thing in the afternoon with Michigan State playing a road favorite, and if you've been paying attention Big Ten Away favorites are a staggering 3-10 23% ATS this season thus far, including six straight unders. Not only that, B10 away favorites are 1-9 ATS when the line is -5 or smaller in the last 10 situations. In which Michigan State has never been apart of those trends, which is a plus. A positive system we've been playing and enjoying a 16-1 ATS run is Michigan St playing as an Away Favorite with a line -5 or smaller 67.7% ATS in database history. This line though is so small because we haven't seen Purdue a Home Underdog in 4 seasons, and they're 90% SU at home winning each game by an average of 20+ points. But looking at the players and understanding rebounding wins games: you have to give the #2 defensive rebounding team in the country the nodd, in Michigan St whose also top 50 in offensive rebounding. They're pace of play is also top 70 in the country compared to Purdue's low 200 national pace rank. We'll see another close matchup this afternoon, but I'll take the better team by the bucket.

Take: Michigan St -3 -110

Michigan / Minnesota 1:00 CT
Another afternoon B10 game should decide our fate early on, but were also really confident on this play as Minnesota's big guys are some of the best in the country. Daniel Oturu is a rebounding machine and somebody I want my money on vs a smaller Michigan team on the road. Minnesota is coming off a tough road loss at Michigan St, but we all know how great they are. But we have to consider Minnesota hung in the game the whole first half before losing the second half by 12 points. But if you're a true College Basketball bettor you'll know Minnesota is top 20% in points scored at home, averaging 80.2 points (compared to Michigan's 68 road point average). Last thing to consider on Minnesota; they're 33-4 89% Straight Up playing as a home favorite with a total 140 or larger in the last four seasons. I do like that Michigan is 1-11 8.3% Straight Up and 2-10 ATS 16.7% ATS playing as an Away Dog with a total of 140 or higher. Michigan is also 15-34 30.6% Straight Up when playing in the first month of conference play as a Dog in database History. I'll take another better team, much bigger rebounding team, and great home court advantage by a bucket.

TAKE: Minnesota -2 -110

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