How to hedge my $1 bracket pool that wins 500 if VA beats MI ST?

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  • 4sees
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-29-17
    • 567

    #1
    How to hedge my $1 bracket pool that wins 500 if VA beats MI ST?
    So, in the pool, no one has equal or more points to me so far, that has VA over MI ST like I do. Thus, if VA beats Mi ST, I win the pool (500). 1 with more points so far than I, has VA over TT, so I would lose if TT beats MI ST.

    Some options to use are as follows:

    VA wins it all +155
    VA doesn't win it all -175

    VA loses final game +176
    Someone else wins final game -211

    If I risk like 175 to win 100 on the VA doesn't win it all, covers me if they lose today or the final. Then, risk like 100 to win 135 on TT ML @ +135, covers me if TT wins today. If TT wins it all, both hedge plays can win.

    Now, if bracket wins, am up 225 (500 - 275).

    If TT wins today & the final, am up 235 (100 + 135)
    If TT wins today & loses to VA in final, am down 40 (135 - 175) [can add another small hedge if final is VA vs. TT, by taking VA ML over TT (-130) for like 65 to win 50. Thus, if TT beats VA would be up 170 (235 - 65), and if VA beats TT, would be up 10 (135 - 175 + 50)

    If MI ST & VA win today, presume win 100 on VA not winning it all, and lost 100 on TT ML, so am even. Can hedge this scenario by risking like 100 on MI ST ML (-102) over VA. Thus, am up like 100 if MI ST wins it all (100 {VA doesn't win it all} + 100 {MI ST ML} - 100 {TT ML}), or up like 125 if bracket wins (500 - 175 {VA doesn't win it all} - 100 {TT ML} - 100 {MI ST ML}).

    If Aub & MI ST win today, would be even (100 {VA doesn't win it all} - 100 {TT ML})
    If Aub & TT win today, would be up 200 (100 {VA doesn't win it all} + 100 {TT ML})

    ----------

    Have a headache from doing that. Am guessing I'm missing something, and/or there is a better way. Welcome any suggestions, and/or confirmation that what I wrote above will guarantee not losing.
  • stackz125
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-03-16
    • 6191

    #2
    Let it ride.
    Comment
    • 4sees
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-29-17
      • 567

      #3
      Doesn't make much sense for me to make more if TT wins it all, then my bracket (VA). Was just trying to see if instead of all (500) or nothing, if I could hedge so that I could still make say 300 if VA beats MI ST, and 100+ if not. So no matter what happens, I'll make money. Took a break and ate something, and will brainstorm so more.
      Comment
      • 4sees
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 12-29-17
        • 567

        #4
        Doesn't make much sense for me to make more if TT wins it all, then my bracket (VA). Was just trying to see if instead of all (500) or nothing, if I could hedge so that I could still make say 300 if VA beats MI ST, and 100+ if not. So no matter what happens, I'll make money. Took a break and ate something, and will brainstorm so more.
        Comment
        • 4sees
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 12-29-17
          • 567

          #5
          Was thinking the easiest way to go, if I want to guarantee winning at least 100 on my $1 pool, is risk 110 on Aub +6. If VA wins, most I can win from pool now is 390 (500 - 110). Bonus of course is, if VA wins but doesn't cover the points, I can still win both.

          The just keep doing the same to hedge the VA over MI ST pool pick, which would be 110 on TT, and then 110 on MI ST. I thought if at any time my pool is down, then I won the 100 bet and am up 100. Or, lost all 3 hedges for minus 330, and max pool win then of 170. But no, If VA covers today, and TT also wins to take my pool down, am not up anything (Though up 100 on TT, am down 110 on the Aub).
          Comment
          • 4sees
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 12-29-17
            • 567

            #6
            Ahh, so that takes away the bonus of the chance of winning both, and so instead of 110 on Aub PS, it's 50 on the AUB ML @ +290. If Aub wins, pool is down, and am up 145 right there. If VA wins, lost 50 means max pool win of 450 (500 -50).

            Then, would risk 150 on TT +1.5 @ +103. If TT wins SU, pool is down, and am up 103 (153 -50). Chance to still win both is alive. If MI ST covers, am down 200 (50 + 150), so max pool win of 300 (500 - 200).

            Then, If risk 250 on MI ST ML @ E, lock in a win either way ... but it's just 50. MI ST wins get the 250, minus the 200 lost today, or it's the 500 pool minus 450 in lost hedges (50 + 150 + 250). Is why I was first thinking need to use those prop lines vs game lines.
            Comment
            • 4sees
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 12-29-17
              • 567

              #7
              Try this: 100 on AUB ML @ 290, and 100 on VA loses final game @ +175. If pool wins, am up 300 (500 - 200 lost today). If Aub wins, pool is down and am up 290 right there. So, am just hedging that Aub doesn't take down VA, and then it doesn't matter MI ST/TT. If VA loses final game, am still up 75 (175 - 100).
              Comment
              • 4sees
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-29-17
                • 567

                #8
                Am now trying to tweak the last strategy in order to win more (100+) on if VA loses final game, and win less if Aub wins today. Must reduce that Aub ML bet down some.
                Last edited by 4sees; 04-06-19, 05:06 PM.
                Comment
                • 4sees
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-29-17
                  • 567

                  #9
                  Risk 75 on Aub ML @ +270 to win 202, and risk 125 on VA loses final game @ +175 to win 218. Now, if pool wins, am still up 300 (500 - 200 lost today). If Aub wins, pool is down, and am up 202 right there. If VA loses final game, am still up 143 (218 - 75). Starting to look better now.
                  Comment
                  • 4sees
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 12-29-17
                    • 567

                    #10
                    My main pool has MI ST over Aub. So, really think Aub can win SU (but before Emari went down), much less cover. Something tells me both faves don't cover, but may win SU. Thus, am going with the AUB ML for 46 to win 125 to start this hedge. If Aub wins, will take the 125. If VA wins, will ponder some more on that one if it happens.
                    Comment
                    • 4sees
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 12-29-17
                      • 567

                      #11
                      148xxxx 4/6/2019 3:08PM Money Line 46.30 125.01 Basketball - 803 Auburn +270 for Game
                      Comment
                      • 4sees
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-29-17
                        • 567

                        #12
                        My main pool for $5 with MI ST over Aub for a $6K pool, is down because the only 1 ahead of me by a point also has MI ST over Aub. And, not only is this the only 1 ahead of me & only by 1 point that has MI ST over Aub, the tie breaker score was identical to mine except for 1 point less for MI ST.
                        Comment
                        • 4sees
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-29-17
                          • 567

                          #13
                          Am ok with risking/hedging the 50 on the Aub ML there. Meant I didn't have to sweat all that. Didn't get the VA to not win it @ +175, but I wish I had. At this Point for me, have come this far, will just look for the Spartan blessing, to give me a bracket pool chance at the max 450 (500 - 50). Thus, instead of getting the risk free up 100+, am now looking at either losing 51 (net) if TT wins, or probably up either 300 VA pool wins (500 - 200)/or up 100 MI ST hedge if MI ST does (150 MI ST ML - 50 Aub ML). C'mon Sparty
                          Comment
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