So, in the pool, no one has equal or more points to me so far, that has VA over MI ST like I do. Thus, if VA beats Mi ST, I win the pool (500). 1 with more points so far than I, has VA over TT, so I would lose if TT beats MI ST.
Some options to use are as follows:
VA wins it all +155
VA doesn't win it all -175
VA loses final game +176
Someone else wins final game -211
If I risk like 175 to win 100 on the VA doesn't win it all, covers me if they lose today or the final. Then, risk like 100 to win 135 on TT ML @ +135, covers me if TT wins today. If TT wins it all, both hedge plays can win.
Now, if bracket wins, am up 225 (500 - 275).
If TT wins today & the final, am up 235 (100 + 135)
If TT wins today & loses to VA in final, am down 40 (135 - 175) [can add another small hedge if final is VA vs. TT, by taking VA ML over TT (-130) for like 65 to win 50. Thus, if TT beats VA would be up 170 (235 - 65), and if VA beats TT, would be up 10 (135 - 175 + 50)
If MI ST & VA win today, presume win 100 on VA not winning it all, and lost 100 on TT ML, so am even. Can hedge this scenario by risking like 100 on MI ST ML (-102) over VA. Thus, am up like 100 if MI ST wins it all (100 {VA doesn't win it all} + 100 {MI ST ML} - 100 {TT ML}), or up like 125 if bracket wins (500 - 175 {VA doesn't win it all} - 100 {TT ML} - 100 {MI ST ML}).
If Aub & MI ST win today, would be even (100 {VA doesn't win it all} - 100 {TT ML})
If Aub & TT win today, would be up 200 (100 {VA doesn't win it all} + 100 {TT ML})
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Have a headache from doing that. Am guessing I'm missing something, and/or there is a better way. Welcome any suggestions, and/or confirmation that what I wrote above will guarantee not losing.
Some options to use are as follows:
VA wins it all +155
VA doesn't win it all -175
VA loses final game +176
Someone else wins final game -211
If I risk like 175 to win 100 on the VA doesn't win it all, covers me if they lose today or the final. Then, risk like 100 to win 135 on TT ML @ +135, covers me if TT wins today. If TT wins it all, both hedge plays can win.
Now, if bracket wins, am up 225 (500 - 275).
If TT wins today & the final, am up 235 (100 + 135)
If TT wins today & loses to VA in final, am down 40 (135 - 175) [can add another small hedge if final is VA vs. TT, by taking VA ML over TT (-130) for like 65 to win 50. Thus, if TT beats VA would be up 170 (235 - 65), and if VA beats TT, would be up 10 (135 - 175 + 50)
If MI ST & VA win today, presume win 100 on VA not winning it all, and lost 100 on TT ML, so am even. Can hedge this scenario by risking like 100 on MI ST ML (-102) over VA. Thus, am up like 100 if MI ST wins it all (100 {VA doesn't win it all} + 100 {MI ST ML} - 100 {TT ML}), or up like 125 if bracket wins (500 - 175 {VA doesn't win it all} - 100 {TT ML} - 100 {MI ST ML}).
If Aub & MI ST win today, would be even (100 {VA doesn't win it all} - 100 {TT ML})
If Aub & TT win today, would be up 200 (100 {VA doesn't win it all} + 100 {TT ML})
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Have a headache from doing that. Am guessing I'm missing something, and/or there is a better way. Welcome any suggestions, and/or confirmation that what I wrote above will guarantee not losing.