Oregon stands alone as potential Giant Killer 🤺
Oregon stands alone as potential Giant Killer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Giant Killers is back for our 14th annual forecast for the Sweet 16. As usual, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the regional semifinals. (Quick reminder: A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)
Perhaps we might additionally say: Welcome to our shortest-ever forecast for the Sweet 16. You might have noticed a good many favorites winning all weekend long, and, as a result, this bracket is heavy with Giants and short on plucky underdogs just itching to take them down. Nevertheless, there is indeed one game to talk about, so let's do this.
Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game, based on the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have most often led to tournament upsets in the past. As always, we've sorted our picks (or, in this case, pick) into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and, last and very likely least, Stay Away. (Hopefully, the titles are self-explanatory.)
Got that? Now, let's get to the good stuff. Here is the single Giant Killer opportunity remaining on the board:
SOUTH REGION
Stay Away
No. 12 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers
Upset chance: 6 percent
The Giant Killer model doesn't give Oregon much of a chance against mighty Virginia, and on paper, it's easy to see why. For the balance of the season, the Ducks showed limited ability on offense, and in particular, the perimeter shooting of Dana Altman's team left something to be desired.
Truth in advertising, however, requires us to point out that the news has been much better for Oregon on that side of the ball in this recent stretch of neutral-floor basketball spanning the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments. Over the past six games, Oregon has been accurate from both sides of the arc, while scoring 1.15 points per possession against four Pac-12 opponents, plus Wisconsin and UC Irvine.
As long as we're incorporating insights from recent basketball, you might also remember the Cavaliers bowing out of the ACC tournament against Florida State. The defining quality of the Seminoles is size, and that is one trait Oregon also has in abundance. Altman confronts you with, in effect, Payton Pritchard and four guys who are all 6-foot-9.
So, sure, you can squint and see this game as possibly landing more in "not completely crazy" territory, as opposed to a flat-out "stay away." Still, there's a reason the Hoos are a No. 1 seed, and a highly potent yet still (strangely) underrated offense is one of those factors.
Moreover, Oregon has been both good and fortunate during this current run, as opponents have combined to convert just 23 percent of their 3s. The one opponent that did shoot well from the outside, Arizona State, took the Ducks to overtime before losing 79-75.
Bottom line: The GK model isn't wild about Oregon's win probability, but given Oregon's 11th-hour turnaround, an upset here wouldn't be completely crazy.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Giant Killers is back for our 14th annual forecast for the Sweet 16. As usual, we're analyzing each Giant vs. Killer game in the regional semifinals. (Quick reminder: A Giant Killer is any team that defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher in any round.)
Perhaps we might additionally say: Welcome to our shortest-ever forecast for the Sweet 16. You might have noticed a good many favorites winning all weekend long, and, as a result, this bracket is heavy with Giants and short on plucky underdogs just itching to take them down. Nevertheless, there is indeed one game to talk about, so let's do this.
Our statistical model yields an upset probability for each game, based on the BPI of each team and on the stylistic factors that have most often led to tournament upsets in the past. As always, we've sorted our picks (or, in this case, pick) into four categories based on the likelihood of an upset: Best Bets, Worth a Long Look, Not Completely Crazy and, last and very likely least, Stay Away. (Hopefully, the titles are self-explanatory.)
Got that? Now, let's get to the good stuff. Here is the single Giant Killer opportunity remaining on the board:
SOUTH REGION
Stay Away
No. 12 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Virginia CavaliersUpset chance: 6 percent
The Giant Killer model doesn't give Oregon much of a chance against mighty Virginia, and on paper, it's easy to see why. For the balance of the season, the Ducks showed limited ability on offense, and in particular, the perimeter shooting of Dana Altman's team left something to be desired.
Truth in advertising, however, requires us to point out that the news has been much better for Oregon on that side of the ball in this recent stretch of neutral-floor basketball spanning the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments. Over the past six games, Oregon has been accurate from both sides of the arc, while scoring 1.15 points per possession against four Pac-12 opponents, plus Wisconsin and UC Irvine.
As long as we're incorporating insights from recent basketball, you might also remember the Cavaliers bowing out of the ACC tournament against Florida State. The defining quality of the Seminoles is size, and that is one trait Oregon also has in abundance. Altman confronts you with, in effect, Payton Pritchard and four guys who are all 6-foot-9.
So, sure, you can squint and see this game as possibly landing more in "not completely crazy" territory, as opposed to a flat-out "stay away." Still, there's a reason the Hoos are a No. 1 seed, and a highly potent yet still (strangely) underrated offense is one of those factors.
Moreover, Oregon has been both good and fortunate during this current run, as opponents have combined to convert just 23 percent of their 3s. The one opponent that did shoot well from the outside, Arizona State, took the Ducks to overtime before losing 79-75.
Bottom line: The GK model isn't wild about Oregon's win probability, but given Oregon's 11th-hour turnaround, an upset here wouldn't be completely crazy.