Three '19 teams (not just Duke) rank among most dominant of decade 🏀
Three '19 teams (not just Duke) rank among most dominant of decade
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
2/15/19
We are currently witnessing historic college basketball greatness.
Though there was once a notion that this season lacked dominant teams, the reality is that there are currently three incredible teams, camouflaged by the fact that they are all playing in the same season.
Had the current versions of Gonzaga, Virginia and Duke played in almost any other season -- and without the other two -- each would have each been celebrated for being exceptional. Don't just take our word for it: Look at the numbers.
In order to get an apples-to-apples comparison, here are the top 10 College Basketball Power Index (BPI) ratings on Feb. 14 for all teams in all years that we have data for -- back to the 2007-08 season.
Highest BPI Rating On Feb. 14 (2007-08 To Present)
At this point in the season, literally only the 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats, who were in the midst of an undefeated regular season, were better than these teams by BPI's measure. Remember, BPI is measuring team quality rather than being a reflection of record.
This group's projections are no less impressive. Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga check in at a 25 percent, 24 percent and 24 percent chance, respectively, to win the NCAA tournament, per BPI. The next-best chance any team has to win it all is Michigan State ... all the way down at 5 percent.
If that feels like an awful lot of championship percentage points clustered at the top, it is. Though we've had midseason tournament projections for only a couple of years now, we can compare our current projections to our pre-tournament projections since the 2007-08 season. And lo and behold, the Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga threesome is more likely to win the championship than the top three teams from every season except, again, 2015. That season, with Kentucky at a 38 percent chance to win the whole thing, is in a virtual tie with the current projections.
Combined Chance To Win NCAA Championship Among Top Three Contenders, Pre-Tournament
So which of this season's trio is best? It's a hard question to answer.
Yes, Duke beat Virginia twice, but don't forget that Gonzaga beat Duke by two in November on a neutral court. Also, according to our game score metric, the Zags' 48-point victory last week over a Saint Mary's team that is 41st in BPI was just as impressive as Duke's 10-point victory at Virginia that same day.
Gonzaga ranks first in Division I in scoring in the paint, first in 2-point shooting percentage and sixth in 2-point shooting percentage allowed. While Gonzaga does play against weaker talent in conference play, in its game against Duke, the Bulldogs still shot 52 percent from 2-point range.
Meanwhile, Duke is also getting it done down low, and against stiffer competition. The Blue Devils have the 294th-best 3-point percentage in the country but make up for it by scoring the second-most points per game in the paint among major-conference or ranked teams. A big reason for its paint success is that Duke is sixth in the nation in offensive-rebound percentage (according to KenPom.com).
Don't count out the Cavaliers from the conversation. Though perhaps best known for its slow-paced offense and stifling defense, Virginia has the fifth-best adjusted offensive efficiency this season. Though it has lost twice to Duke, don't expect that to be predictive of the outcome should the two teams meet again in the ACC tournament or in the Final Four due to the unusual 3-point shooting that occurred in the first two meetings. Virginia shot well below its season average from beyond the arc in the first game, and in the second, Duke shot well above its average on 21 3-point shots en route to a 10-point victory.
So what's on the horizon for these teams? While there are no guarantees in college basketball, we do know this: Most likely, one of the three will win the NCAA tournament. Which one, however, is much harder to figure.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
2/15/19
We are currently witnessing historic college basketball greatness.
Though there was once a notion that this season lacked dominant teams, the reality is that there are currently three incredible teams, camouflaged by the fact that they are all playing in the same season.
Had the current versions of Gonzaga, Virginia and Duke played in almost any other season -- and without the other two -- each would have each been celebrated for being exceptional. Don't just take our word for it: Look at the numbers.
In order to get an apples-to-apples comparison, here are the top 10 College Basketball Power Index (BPI) ratings on Feb. 14 for all teams in all years that we have data for -- back to the 2007-08 season.
Highest BPI Rating On Feb. 14 (2007-08 To Present)
| 2014-15 | Kentucky | 23.4 |
| 2018-19 | Gonzaga | 22.4 |
| 2018-19 | Virginia | 22.2 |
| 2018-19 | Duke | 22.0 |
| 2012-13 | Florida | 21.8 |
| 2009-10 | Duke | 21.6 |
| 2009-10 | Kansas | 21.2 |
| 2008-09 | North Carolina | 21.0 |
| 2013-14 | Duke | 20.7 |
| 2017-18 | Villanova | 20.7 |
At this point in the season, literally only the 2014-15 Kentucky Wildcats, who were in the midst of an undefeated regular season, were better than these teams by BPI's measure. Remember, BPI is measuring team quality rather than being a reflection of record.
This group's projections are no less impressive. Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga check in at a 25 percent, 24 percent and 24 percent chance, respectively, to win the NCAA tournament, per BPI. The next-best chance any team has to win it all is Michigan State ... all the way down at 5 percent.
If that feels like an awful lot of championship percentage points clustered at the top, it is. Though we've had midseason tournament projections for only a couple of years now, we can compare our current projections to our pre-tournament projections since the 2007-08 season. And lo and behold, the Duke, Virginia and Gonzaga threesome is more likely to win the championship than the top three teams from every season except, again, 2015. That season, with Kentucky at a 38 percent chance to win the whole thing, is in a virtual tie with the current projections.
Combined Chance To Win NCAA Championship Among Top Three Contenders, Pre-Tournament
| 2007-08 | 54% | Kansas | Memphis | UCLA | Kansas |
| 2008-09 | 47% | North Carolina | Memphis | Pittsburgh | North Carolina |
| 2009-10 | 59% | Duke | Kansas | Syracuse | Duke |
| 2010-11 | 50% | Ohio State | Kansas | Duke | Connecticut |
| 2011-12 | 54% | Kentucky | Ohio State | North Carolina | Kentucky |
| 2012-13 | 61% | Florida | Louisville | Indiana | Louisville** |
| 2013-14 | 46% | Louisville | Florida | Arizona | Connecticut |
| 2014-15 | 73% | Kentucky | Duke | Wisconsin | Duke |
| 2015-16 | 41% | Michigan State | Kansas | Virginia | Villanova |
| 2016-17 | 46% | North Carolina | Gonzaga | Villanova | North Carolina |
| 2017-18 | 55% | Virginia | Villanova | Duke | Villanova |
| 2018-19* | 73% | Duke | Virginia | Gonzaga | TBD |
| *Current | |||||
| **Vacated | |||||
So which of this season's trio is best? It's a hard question to answer.
Yes, Duke beat Virginia twice, but don't forget that Gonzaga beat Duke by two in November on a neutral court. Also, according to our game score metric, the Zags' 48-point victory last week over a Saint Mary's team that is 41st in BPI was just as impressive as Duke's 10-point victory at Virginia that same day.
Gonzaga ranks first in Division I in scoring in the paint, first in 2-point shooting percentage and sixth in 2-point shooting percentage allowed. While Gonzaga does play against weaker talent in conference play, in its game against Duke, the Bulldogs still shot 52 percent from 2-point range.
Meanwhile, Duke is also getting it done down low, and against stiffer competition. The Blue Devils have the 294th-best 3-point percentage in the country but make up for it by scoring the second-most points per game in the paint among major-conference or ranked teams. A big reason for its paint success is that Duke is sixth in the nation in offensive-rebound percentage (according to KenPom.com).
Don't count out the Cavaliers from the conversation. Though perhaps best known for its slow-paced offense and stifling defense, Virginia has the fifth-best adjusted offensive efficiency this season. Though it has lost twice to Duke, don't expect that to be predictive of the outcome should the two teams meet again in the ACC tournament or in the Final Four due to the unusual 3-point shooting that occurred in the first two meetings. Virginia shot well below its season average from beyond the arc in the first game, and in the second, Duke shot well above its average on 21 3-point shots en route to a 10-point victory.
So what's on the horizon for these teams? While there are no guarantees in college basketball, we do know this: Most likely, one of the three will win the NCAA tournament. Which one, however, is much harder to figure.