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Sure you do!! Nobody blocks anybody on here, it's all talk, people are too noosy to block.
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Down goes DenverComment -
how expensive is it?Comment -
Wallco Chase 110 – Official Rules
Find a team that has lost three consecutive games (both S/U and ATS). Play a four game chase on that team to win (A) (B) (C) or (D). If a team is a favorite in any of the games, play the M/L, if the team is a dog in any of the games play the point line (-110). WE DONOT BUY POINTS IN THIS SYSTEM and we do not care if teams were favorites or dogs in the games before the four game chase starts. The only time we would buy points is if your team is a favorite by 1-3 points, and buying down to -1/2 is cheaper than the M/L. Other than that, we are always playing M/L and (-110). I use ScoresandOdds.com as official play site. If ScoresAndOdds.com has the game listed as a win, then the series is over. You may have had a different line then them and lost the game, if this is the case, the decision is yours whether or not to continue, but the game will be deemed a win at that point. ALL PUSHES ARE SEEN AS A NO-PLAY. We will treat those games as if they were never played and just skip them. So if your (B) bet is a push, your next bet will be a (B) bet. This system has not been back tested for pre-season or playoffs, this is for regular season only.
Bet Structure (for 4 game chase)
Chase 110 is definitely profitable. For each series loss in a four game chase @ (-110), you need 18.44 series wins to be even. In a chase system, assuming your initial wager is 1 unit, if you lose your (A) bet, your (B) bet will be your losses of (A) bet + 1 unit. So if (B) wins, your profit will be 1 unit. Same for (C) and (D). Recoup all previous losses + 1 unit. Any time a series wins, you will have profited 1 unit. So, for example, if my system is 70-0, I would be up 70 units, it can't be more than that, because our game odds are always (-110) or lower, unless you are risking more than one unit per bet. If you lose four consecutive bets: (A) (B) (C) and (D), you cumulative loss will be 18.44 units (assuming all four games were played at (-110) and betting to win one unit, slightly more if there was a M/L in one of the games). Another thing, if (A) (B) (C) or (D) wins, the series is over at that point, and system gets a win, the remaining games in the series do not get played. Here are four examples, winning the (A) bet is obvious, so I will skip that one:
Unit size = $100
Win (B) bet
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Win (+210)
Net result: 210 -110 = +100 (+1 unit)
Win (C) bet
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Loss (-231)
(C) - Risk 485 to win 441 - Win (+441)
Net result: 441 - 231 - 110 =+100 (+1 unit)
Win (D) bet
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Loss (-231)
(C) - Risk 485 to win 441 - Loss (-485)
(D) - Risk 1018 to win 926 - Win (+926)
Net result: 926 - 485 - 231 - 110 =+100 (+1 unit)
Lose (D) bet (series loss)
(A) - Risk 110 to win 100 - Loss (-110)
(B) - Risk 231 to win 210 - Loss (-231)
(C) - Risk 485 to win 441 - Loss (-485)
(D) - Risk 1018 to win 926 - Loss (-1018)
Net result: -1018 - 485 - 231 - 110 = -1844 (-18.44 units)
** Note: These bet structures are based on all games being played at -110 odds. Amounts could be a lot larger if M/L losses are in the mix.
Series Filters
Head to Head Filter: If a team loses three straight games (ATS and S/U), check that team’s schedule to see who their next four opponents are. If one of these teams is a team that is already being played in Chase 110, skip wagering on the new team until the first team has concluded their series. This is to avoid possibly betting on both sides of a game deep in a series (B-D bets). If at that point, the new team has continued their losing streak, you may then pick up your (A) bet on that team, and begin your four game chase. If two teams qualify at the same time, and are scheduled to play each other at some point in their next four games, the team whose potential four game chase would end sooner will be the play. However, if these two teams are scheduled to face each other in their respective (A) bets, this game will be played, taking the (M/L) on the favorite and (-110) on underdog. There is a chance you can win both ends of the bet, and no chance you can lose both, since one team will win. The risk/reward only seems favorable when teams are facing each other in their (A) bets, all other scenarios are just too risky. You may play all teams that qualify, regardless of who their next four opponents are and just take your chances. However, this isn’t recommended. This filter was created to eliminate a possible (D) bet disaster. The wins and losses for the season will be calculated using this filter.
When to play: Chase 110 will be played from day 1 of regular season. As the season winds down, when a team qualifies for a play (three losses ATS and S/U), make sure that team has at least four games remaining on their schedule. If not, that team doesn’t qualify. Results were based on a four game chase, so less than four games to play would lessen your chances of victory. Basic rule of thumb, if the losing streak starts in the last six games of a season, there is no way that team will qualify. If some pushes occur, it may go back a few more games.
** I haven’t had a chance to rebacktest the system to see how the 1-3-5 could be implemented, or what affect not playing M/L on favorites would have. I know there were more losses by playing favorites against the spread, but the extra income we would make by playing my 1-3-5 method could, possibly, more than offset them. I will check as soon as I get some free time. But for now, M/L is the play on favorites.
System Backtest (2003-2012)
2011-12(75-5) **Strike shortened season**
(A) 46-31
(B) 11-20
(C) 10-10
(D) 5-5
Total loss : -20.63 units
2010-11(85-0)
(A) 47-38
(B) 23-15
(C) 9-6
(D) 6-0
Total profit : +85 units
2009-10 (88-4)
(A) 63-29
(B) 11-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total profit : +11.5 units
2008-09 (86-6) THE BAD SEASON.Three losses involving large M/L.
(A) 48-44
(B) 20-24
(C) 13-11
(D) 5-6 (four of these won on next bet, too risky to play).
Total loss : -51 units
2007-2008 (86-3)
(A) 58-31
(B) 18-13
(C) 6-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +30 units
2006-07 (101-1)
(A) 64-39
(B) 23-16
(C) 11-5
(D) 4-1
Total Profit : +77.25 units
2005-06 (92-3)
(A) 61-34
(B) 17-17
(C) 10-7
(D) 4-3
Total Profit : +26 units
2004-05 (80-3)
(A) 56-27
(B) 10-17
(C) 7-10
(D) 7-3
Total Profit : +22.5 units
2003-04 (92-4)
(A) 48-48
(B) 30-18
(C) 10-8
(D) 4-4
Total Profit : +14 units
System created by Wallco99Last edited by Wallco99; 11-01-12, 06:53 AM.Comment -
Sounds good. After 24 games are you getting a feel from where his bets are coming from? Do you see any consistencies in the plays? Thanks for sharing them.Originally posted by h00diniComment -
Wallco99....i have just come across your chase system and would like to wish you good luck for the season.....however i would like to ask if you remember your system having any particular long streaks of A bet losses....my reason for asking is that your A bet hit rate alone is 60.5% (491 wins / 321 losses) with no season under 50%......i may run a labby on your A bets alone with that impressive % over 812 plays.....have you ever tried an A bet only chase or labby in the past...if so do you remember if it was successful or not?......thanks...Comment -
Just came home from work and the power is back on fellas!
Time to get this party started.Comment -
wb stevexComment -
if stevex still cant post the plays.
Detroit A bet (v1)
Utah A bet (v3)
Portland A bet (v3)
Denver B bet (v1)Comment -
Thanks knugen. At work now but will be posting my first official JM post around 5 EST when i get home.Comment -
No problems.
Then i let u post from tomorrow!
hope for some losses tonight so we have som 7/5 playsComment -
7/5 is technically on since its nov right? it was just cutting all oct games out? or is there a minimum number of games needed before 7/5 comes in?Comment -
"Note: I will be posting the 7/5 plays this season, no one else. Only in the extreme situation that we are close to game time and I haven't posted will someone else list the 7/5 plays. Unless that circumstance occurs, look for my posts for the 7/5 plays. <!-- edit note --><!--<!-- / edit note -->
-->Last edited by thelimit0310; 10-26-12 at 12:04 PM. "
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are this ML or ATS?Comment -
"Note: I will be posting the 7/5 plays this season, no one else. Only in the extreme situation that we are close to game time and I haven't posted will someone else list the 7/5 plays. Unless that circumstance occurs, look for my posts for the 7/5 plays. <!-- edit note --><!--<!-- / edit note --> -->Last edited by thelimit0310; 10-26-12 at 12:04 PM. "
right but, 7/5 filters were no october. just asking if there was a minimum number of games before it came into effect or 7/5 is ready to go because its NovComment -
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got it. tyComment -
Alright fellas first official post of the year for all 3 versions of the JM NBA System. This is the format I will use for the rest of the year so if you guys want me to change any thing up, chime in. After I post I will follow up with some things that I'll be including for me personally to track this year if that's okay...
11/2/2012
V1
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 1-0
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 1-0
Current series pending: 2
1. Detroit Pistons A Bet +4 1/2 @ Phoenix Suns (*Risking 110 TO WIN 100)
Detroit Pistons A Bet (with buying 3 Points) +7 1/2 @ Phoenix Suns
2. Denver Nuggets B Bet -6 @ Orlando Magic (**Risking 110 TO WIN 100)
Denver Nuggets B Bet (with buying 3 points) -3 @ Orlando Magic
V2
Current chase record W/OUT buying point: 0-0
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 0-0
Current series pending: 0
V3
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 0-0
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 0-0
Current series pending: 2
1. Utah Jazz A Bet -3 1/2 @ New Orleans Hornets (Risking 110 TO WIN 100)
Utah Jazz A Bet (with buying 3 points) -1/2 @ New Orleans Hornets
2. Portland Trailblazers A Bet +8 1/2 @ OKC Thunder (Risking 110 TO WIN 100)
Portland Trailblazers A Bet (with buying 3 points) +11 1/2 @ OKC Thunder
*Instead of putting down units because each person has a different unit measure they go by, I'm going to put down the exact same amount I'm betting while running my labby for each system. Nobody has to copy those risk amounts AT ALL. Trust me your lines will get pretty big with any system so you want to make sure you're not over betting.
**I'm betting the same amount for the B bet because I missed the Denver A bet against Philly so just wanted to throw that in there so nobody got confused.
My lines might be a bit different than yours depending at which book your playing at as well so if you can get a better line then go for it. Lets make some money folks!Comment -
Hi Stevex.
Could you maybe BOLD UNDERSCORE the team to bet on? Just like Wallco style.
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You got it brotha. Whatever you want me to change fellas just let me know!Comment -
Nice format stevex!
Are u only gonna use labby for all versions and not 7/5 at all?Comment -
Just playing all 3 versions of JM NBA with each having there own labby and that's all.Comment -
Great job steve!Comment -
Thanks fellas!Comment -
Nobody's done it yet, so I figured it would be a good time to mention it since no one would be singled out. If anyone responds to a post that contains OFFICIAL plays, which was posted by either stevex, the limit, or myself, please don't "quote" our post in your post. This happened on many occasions last season, and it really clutters the thread. If for some reason we notice that we made an error in our post and we go back and correct it, it would be different than the information in the incorrect post, if it gets quoted before we had a chance to fix it. Then people start saying the plays are wrong because they see them in the quoted post, and don't realize we made changes to the original post because they stopped reading further down. If it happens a few times then you will see what I mean. Thanks.Comment -
Steve, just one thing. Your format looks great, but at the top of your post, in bold letters, could you add JM Traditional System. This will be a good idea since we are running three different things on here, then people can just scroll down and look for the bold print of our systems if they are only looking for plays. Thanks.
** You may want to do yourself a favor and somewhere on your post add one or more of the three posts that involve the 1000 questions that come up each year about JM system.
1. Post #50 explains 1-3-5
2. Post #107 explains JM schedule
3. Post #140 explains JM rulesLast edited by Wallco99; 11-02-12, 05:22 PM.Comment
