thoughts?
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Some points to consider:
Portland has revenge on their side
the suffocating death trap known as the rose garden
Portland dominated in their last half last night after stinking it up for 6 quarters before that.
Portland dominated the clippers in the last meeting during the 4th quarter when both teams exuded great effort
clippers looked very average vs the bucks and too many days off and not enough games to really coordinate with each other may have an effect on the road in a place like the rose garden (and vs a team thats more talented with a deeper bench waiting to tear their heads off)
clippers may be overlooking this one as they already beat Portland and they may be looking ahead vs miami at home the next night (which I am POSITIVE the clippers have circled on their schedule before the season started) ;-)
With all that said, none of that matters until i see the line movement,.Comment -
PR9 which way do you think this line is gonna go?
I think pubs are gonna be all over the clipps on this oneComment -
Well they already have Portland at -5
not that it means anything but the last time they had such a spread at home this year they covered vs Denver. They had a similar spread vs the sixers but it was the first game of the season and williams and co nailed some ridiculous shots late for a backdoor cover. Portland was far better in that game and had a 14 point 4th quarter lead.
but of course, past performance means absolutely jack in a current game. It means diddly poo, it means nothing, nada, caput, ZILTCH !!. I will have to analyze tomorrow, see the line and movement, correlate it with ML to team spread, then differentiate it between the two teams for an overall better picture. Its way too early, a lot can happen between now and then,. i am busy checking things out for tonights action... and the championship bowl game in college football
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Line should fall, maybe to -4. I think we'll see Portland play their best in this game, but it looks to me like one that could go back and forth all game.
The B2B is a tough one, however Miami plays at GS the night before as well, so the Blazers and Heat are largely in the same situation the following night.Comment -
-5.5 already
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It's just 15 minutes past midnight and the line already moved to -5.5 with 81% of the bet volume going to PortlandComment -
sorry Paul. Just saw your post above about it moving to -5.5 hours ago. I glanced the line only now.
that early huh? hmmComment -
I think Vegas knows there is a massive contingent of new Clippers fans these days who fell for the hype and vegas wants money going to LA.. like in previous games when they were incredibly overvalued.
If people don't think vegas wants a big piece of that Clips potato pie they're absolutely crazy, and not with it. They're vastly mistaken.
i think the amount of bets going to portland so early for this game shocked them. I'd bet they thought slightly more would be going to LA so early getting the 5 pts
hence the lightning quick movement of the line (albeit just half a pt , for them to gauge further activity)
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at this point it seems like a square play, but I honestly thought it would have been the opposite. this is a surprise to me. i like all the angles that PR9 posted above, and agree with making a pretty substantial play. the only thing i'm debating now is to grab it now, or wait for a better number tomorrow. pinny is holding at -5.5 but is juicing the clippers (-114). The Greek has gone from -4.5 to -5.5 and currently holding. does it possibly come back down from the hook and settle at -5 or is it going higher? either way, i think it is a good play, clippers are looking ahead to miami the following night and portland, like PR9 said, will play hard at home, a top 3 arena in terms of a tough place to play on the road. what do you guys think? will it hold or is it going to move? and which way...Comment -
Initial thought is the blazers. Second thought is clippers. Third thought is in works.Comment -
Fukking whole SBR likes the Blazers. Havent even made the bet and already nervousComment -
Clippers handled the Blazers last time they met at Staples center. They only won by 5 but was up 17 going into the 4th quarter and took their foot of the pedal so to speak. This is a tough one to call IMO I think the Blazers get the W but I'm not sold on the cover yet.Comment -
(I'm posting the following because someone PM'd me asking what I thought about this game)
To be totally honest, I'm staying away from this one. I have had an absolutely terrific run with Portland over the past 5 games or so, and through the years I've learned when to slow down on a team when on a hot streak.
1) The -3.5 vs the Lakers was such an easy call going by the non line movement on that one, and with Felton playing the disrespect card with the media pumping up his teammates, as well as the Rose Garden being a house of horrors for the LA Fakers.. Easy 5 units gained on that one.
2) The line against OKC the game before was another easy call. If you recall I was all in on portland in that one. OKC looked tired in the tail end of the game the night before, while POR was fresh and rested coming off a road loss, however at the tail end of that clips game the blazers looked terrific.. and as I said then, it would carry over for the next game in OKC , and they won by double digits. Easy 5 units gained.
3) The other night, the line movement screamed telling you that POR was going to blow out the Cavs. Coming off an embarrassing loss and against an unproven Cavs team this was an easy call when the line jumped to -11.5 right before tipoff. An easy 5 units gained there. And an additional 5 units gained with the 2H wager I had on POR as they were up 7 at halftime despite only shooting 20%. POR is a 2nd half team and it was one of the easiest bets of the year to go POR -4 for the 2nd half in that one against a poor cavs team at the rose garden. Total units gained = 10
4) In Phx, the line begged you to take POR, but us folks at sbr are too smart for that. In the BettingWiz thread on this game, I clarified I had 2u on Phx and another 1H, and another 2H.. Total = 4 units gained.
So I've had a good decent run with Portland and this one I'm now questioning. I'm feeling a little weary on it to be honest. Now they're juicing the clips. That son of a bitch chauncey billups can nail 4 consecutive 3-pointers at any time. And he knows the rose garden very well. So does CP3, and Caron Butler. They know that place very well. That POS Billups has lost a few bets for me in previous years, nailing late daggers like a machine. And he gets hot at the most unexpected times. He can play like total shit for 3 quarters then bite you in the ass. And he loves doing it on the road too against a jeering crowd. When that little bastard gets hot you're fukked. I'm not risking this game.
I know there's a lot pointing to POR covering this game. But I'm laying off as I am more convinced on other plays for tonights action. We have a very nice board to work with tonight, and I'm being responsible here. There will be better spots imo.
ps- however i did hear from portland that they want to start games better. I MAY lay a unit on a 1Q or 1H wager here. not sure yet.. and then see what happens and make a decision at halftime. But either way, it will be very small wagers for this one if i do place anything on it
BOLComment -
Great discussion in here. I'm on the clips +5.5 fwiwComment -
dangerous game
something about it doesn't feel right. I should be feeling much better about it.
staying away
better plays on tonight's board imhoComment -
Good value on Clips +5.5Comment -
PR9 you must be up 40 - 50 units easy so far in the NBA?
All you seem to be doing is counting easy wins.Comment -
up around just under $20,000 profit so far this NBA season.
$5000 on x-mas gave me a huge jump and confidence builder. Went a perfect 5-0 on x-mas betting $1100 on every game. So started the season with a big bang.
Only bet that high on 3 games since then (being responsible with my winnings, learned so much from past mistakes) and all 3 of those hit too. All 3 were underdog bombs.
without the 8-0 home run bomb record, Id be over $10k aheadComment -
Felton is one of the worst starting pg's in the league in my opinion. That's why I don't think the Blazers are winning anything this year. He can't hold up against the elite in a 7 game series.
He hits one shot and he starts calling for it. He thinks he's feelin it after he makes a 15 foot jumper then starts chucking up everything.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
No argument there. I hate Felton with a passion. I swear everytime I bet the Blazers he tries to tank the game, it's one of the reasons I'm afraid to go big here.
Nevertheless they are still a great team and Jamal Crawford joining the team just took their bench to the next level.Comment -
Pretty sure Sweetjones55 play is on blazers tonightComment -
For the situation and matchup, the line stinks. Clippers coming off 1 game in the last 5 days and should be well prepared for this game. It might start great for the Blazers, but I think this game will be close.
IMO, if I can't confidently say I would be playing a game at -7, and I can't find it at -4, then I lay off a -5.5 spread. It's that awkward spot where the line says it won't come down to the final shot, but your team also won't be in control of the game.Comment -
action seems to be fairly balanced in this game. Keep an eye out for late movement before tip off.Comment -
7 units at -5.5
fade awayComment -
Jamal Crawford is having his worst game of the season and the Blazers are still ahead.
TURN IT ON, YOU FUKKFACE.Comment -
cp3 has doen nothing in the first half because of foul trouble. Aldrich is turning into a volume shooter. You'll need some Crawford and Mathews magic maybe.
I've been waiting patiently all week for tomorrows card. i haven't been anything in days.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
LOL i knew you would be mad because you had them. I told you not to bet memphis at this stage in the season. Gay is working into the rotation and this is not the memphis team that you will see come 7 game series. i already warned you.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
1U on Blazers 2nd half ml.Comment
