NBA home stretch

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  • Dark Horse
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-14-05
    • 13764

    #1
    NBA home stretch
    Teams with nothing to play for, teams with everything to play for, and teams in between. Just some thoughts.

    Teams in the battle for playoff positioning will be sharp. This doesn't include Miami, which has the #2 spot and only plays for pride or improving intensity until the playoffs.

    Detroit has already gone on hiatus. They have the #1 spot in the East, and seem to realize that it is better to be rested for the playoffs than to be exhausted with home court. They will continue to take it easy and drorp the cash.

    Dallas and San Antonio have to keep going strong until the end. The difference between the #1 and #4 spots is just too big. Should make for easy covers, and could come back to haunt them in the playoffs. Already Dallas is getting thinner, and I wouldn't be surprised at key injuries with the Spurs.

    Phoenix may start to take the pedal off the medal pretty soon, if only it were in their nature. The #2 spot in the West is theirs. Would be a perfect time to ease Amare into the system, when he's ready.

    Denver is almost certain of the #3 spot in the West and could start slowing down. They're stretched very thin already.

    Of course the teams on the bubble should be playing at full capacity. Could make for some big upsets against resting top teams.

    Some of the bottom teams that are out of the playoffs already have their eye on next year. Talented bench players at Portland and New York could be out to prove themselves and set a positive tone for next year. Marbury would never admit it, but if his job is on the line in his beloved NY, he is almost certain to step it up.

    Don't be surprised to see the Knicks cover against the Heat today. That game is far more important to New York. Imagine what it would do to their spirit if they could beat Detroit and Miami in the same week. Never mind that neither of those teams really care right now.
  • imgv94
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-16-05
    • 17192

    #2
    Thank you DH. Great Post!
    Comment
    • Alamorich
      SBR MVP
      • 12-28-05
      • 1475

      #3
      That is great stuff DH...this part of the season calls for an adjustment to ones handicapping and I also think it calls for being very selective with picks. Lots of traps will be set from here to playoff time.
      Comment
      • Illusion
        Restricted User
        • 08-09-05
        • 25166

        #4
        Excellent post DH.
        Comment
        • bigboydan
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 08-10-05
          • 55420

          #5
          you gotta avoid betting on dead teams. those types of teams might look good to the eye with the lines you see, but thats just not the case at all.
          Comment
          • Dark Horse
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-14-05
            • 13764

            #6
            What is dead?

            Portland is 'dead', but you couldn't tell from the way they battled MIL yesterday until the closing seconds. I'm seriously considering taking them +1.5 tomorrow against the Bucks.

            ATL is 'dead', and DET might beat the 12.5 line tomorrow, but it would be the first time since February 1st that they'd win a game by more than 12 pts. If the stars align the Motown boys might spark, but otherwise they'll just continue their 'dead' ways until the playoffs.
            Last edited by Dark Horse; 03-19-06, 07:29 PM.
            Comment
            • Jay Edgar
              SBR MVP
              • 03-08-06
              • 1576

              #7
              Great post, DH

              I would only propose to refine it (and complicate it) by noting that I think the "coasting" teams will NOT coast for every single game -- rather they will pick their spots along the way, based on whatever moves them (revenge, sending a message, getting down by 21 in the first half and spontaneously picking it up out of pride)

              The best way to prepare for the playoffs if your position is locked up (or you don't care about it) is to get some rest while at the same time flexing the muscles here and there -- just less frequently.

              I fully expect that at some point in the next three weeks Detroit will, once or maybe twice, throw down a "this is what we can do" game. But as to when that will be, we can only guess.

              All the more reason to tred carefully the rest of the way, and wait for the playoffs (and the MLB opener)
              Comment
              • Alamorich
                SBR MVP
                • 12-28-05
                • 1475

                #8
                This should be a good time to bet dogs. Teams out of contention have guys playing for jobs and they will play hard when a "playoff" team comes to town...meanwhile the "playoff" team might be coasting along. If this is true than that means playing against Miami, Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Detroit....and it means playing on Orlando, NY, Atlanta, Portland etc.
                Comment
                • bigboydan
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 08-10-05
                  • 55420

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Dark Horse
                  What is dead?

                  the 76er's
                  Comment
                  • Illusion
                    Restricted User
                    • 08-09-05
                    • 25166

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Dark Horse
                    What is dead?

                    Portland is 'dead', but you couldn't tell from the way they battled MIL yesterday until the closing seconds. I'm seriously considering taking them +1.5 tomorrow against the Bucks.

                    ATL is 'dead', and DET might beat the 12.5 line tomorrow, but it would be the first time since February 1st that they'd win a game by more than 12 pts. If the stars align the Motown boys might spark, but otherwise they'll just continue their 'dead' ways until the playoffs.
                    I'm glad you brought that up. I'm gonna hammer the Hawks tomorrow.
                    Comment
                    • imgv94
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-16-05
                      • 17192

                      #11
                      Millionares running up and down the court for 2 hours nothing will
                      surprise me, except when the playoffs start.
                      Comment
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