Are nba totals really worth the risk???

[t-wizzle]

I haven't bet one all year but I'm looking at the totals tonight. Spurs-Mavs unders were screwed with the late shot, Jazz-Blazers went 1 point over, and Knicks-Magic went a 1.5 pts over. Year in and year out, NBA totals seem to be razor sharp and it just seems like so many bets are screwed by a late meaningless bucket. You could make the same argument for spreads but it seems to happen more often with totals.

Point is, unless you really believe that Vegas is wrong on a number (e.g. you have a game's over/under capped at a significantly different number), why even bother with nba totals? Seems to me to be

[No coincidences]

Yep, they're "sharp" alright.

That's one word.

Another would be "crooked."

[No coincidences]

FTR, t-wizz, as long as you watch line movement -- esp. at Pinny -- totals can be a lucrative business.

[t-wizzle]

FTR, t-wizz, as long as you watch line movement -- esp. at Pinny -- totals can be a lucrative business.

Yes, but they tend to react very quickly and consequently it's difficult to get them at the right number. You need to be really good and catch it before it moves.

[No coincidences]

Yes, but they tend to react very quickly and consequently it's difficult to get them at the right number. You need to be really good and catch it before it moves.

True. Pinny also likes to head fake every once in a while, because they know we're watching.

All in all, though, if you have a total that moves say at least 2-3 points in one direction from its opening number, you'll hit it more often than not.

[mattmc419]

Yeah I don't bet totals very often for that reason either. Too many things can cause it to go one way or the other - decision to shoot or not at the end of the game, intentional fouls, etc. There are times that the line seems off though, like a couple days ago when the Pistons and Celtics was 186 (an easy over)

[ANGRYBLACK]

The line wasn't off. The Celts play great D. Detroit is known to play some also. More times than not, this match up would end under 186...

[gtboy]

i hate betting on totals, to me it is more risky than just betting on the winner.

[blowseq]

Those Texas teams fvcked my under (191.5) last nite!!!

[MartR]

i hate betting on totals, to me it is more risky than just betting on the winner.

[Laker_crazy]

I Love Totals

[ManBearPig]

I Love Totals