Just wanted to stop in here and say thanks to all the great cappers here. I've been lurking off and on for a while and have appreciated all the knowledge. I believe the Purdue/Minny game presents an opportunity and thought I would share it with you. I'll add that I follow Purdue basketball as close as someone can from 2000 miles away.
The Gophers have historically been an awful road team and a good to great home team regardless of the squad. After an uncharacteristic start to the Big Ten season (losses to NW, Wisky, Mich), they seem to have returned to that form by winning their last 3 home games by an average of about 15 points. Each team was ranked coming in. Even if Purdue had a good team I would be fearful of them being blown out...wierd things happen in The Barn.
Sun, Jan 29 (13) Indiana W 61-42
Sat, Feb 11 (12) Michigan St. W 69-55
Sat, Feb 18 (18) Iowa W 74-61
I'm sure you've heard of some of Purdue's troubles this year. They are missing their "to be" point guard (Terrance Crump - Suspended), last year's leading scorer (Carl Landry - medical redshirt), last year's second leading scorer (David Teague - medical redshirt), top freshmen recruit (PG Korey Spates - kicked off team for good), and top scoring freshmen (G Nate Minnoy - probably out for the year). Purdue is left severely undermanned at the guard position and consistently wears down in the second half. Believe it or not this team has made more progress than any I've seen at Purdue probably since 1996 but they still are not ready for a full 40 minutes of Big Ten action on the road.
Here are some details of Purdue's road woes:
Tue, Nov 29 at Florida St. L 57-97
Sat, Dec 3 at Evansville L 69-75
Sun, Dec 11 at Loyola Chicago L 65-80
Fri, Dec 30 at (4) Memphis L 70-90
Wed, Jan 4 at Northwestern L 53-66
Sat, Jan 7 at Michigan L 65-68
Wed, Jan 18 at Penn St. L 54-74
Sat, Jan 21 at (13) Indiana L 49-62
Sat, Jan 28 at (8) Illinois L 58-76
Wed, Feb 8 at (12) Michigan St. L 52-77
You see that in 6 Big Ten road games they have come within 13 points once against a Michigan team that I believe completely overlooked the Boilers that day (Purdue had a big early lead....led by 8 at the half...faltered down the stretch). I think Purdue's lopsided victory over the Gophers in Mackey eliminates the possibility of Minny overlooking them and probably will have revenge on their minds. Purdue has been able to hang with most clubs until half time on the road (Down by 8 at PSU, Down by 4 at IU, Down by 2 at MSU, Down by 8 at ILL, Up by 8 at Mich) but flat out wear down in the second half.
I see two ways to play this. I think the full game Minny at -11 or -12 is a great play but probably the best play may be to wait until halftime and hammer Minny for the 2H if the game is anywhere close.
I'm taking Minny -11 (bought a point at Pinny) as my second biggest play of the year (the other was FSU -11 over Purdue) because I won't be able to watch the game.
Sorry for the long winded report...even though I probably could have added many pages to it
Good luck if you play it
The Gophers have historically been an awful road team and a good to great home team regardless of the squad. After an uncharacteristic start to the Big Ten season (losses to NW, Wisky, Mich), they seem to have returned to that form by winning their last 3 home games by an average of about 15 points. Each team was ranked coming in. Even if Purdue had a good team I would be fearful of them being blown out...wierd things happen in The Barn.
Sun, Jan 29 (13) Indiana W 61-42
Sat, Feb 11 (12) Michigan St. W 69-55
Sat, Feb 18 (18) Iowa W 74-61
I'm sure you've heard of some of Purdue's troubles this year. They are missing their "to be" point guard (Terrance Crump - Suspended), last year's leading scorer (Carl Landry - medical redshirt), last year's second leading scorer (David Teague - medical redshirt), top freshmen recruit (PG Korey Spates - kicked off team for good), and top scoring freshmen (G Nate Minnoy - probably out for the year). Purdue is left severely undermanned at the guard position and consistently wears down in the second half. Believe it or not this team has made more progress than any I've seen at Purdue probably since 1996 but they still are not ready for a full 40 minutes of Big Ten action on the road.
Here are some details of Purdue's road woes:
Tue, Nov 29 at Florida St. L 57-97
Sat, Dec 3 at Evansville L 69-75
Sun, Dec 11 at Loyola Chicago L 65-80
Fri, Dec 30 at (4) Memphis L 70-90
Wed, Jan 4 at Northwestern L 53-66
Sat, Jan 7 at Michigan L 65-68
Wed, Jan 18 at Penn St. L 54-74
Sat, Jan 21 at (13) Indiana L 49-62
Sat, Jan 28 at (8) Illinois L 58-76
Wed, Feb 8 at (12) Michigan St. L 52-77
You see that in 6 Big Ten road games they have come within 13 points once against a Michigan team that I believe completely overlooked the Boilers that day (Purdue had a big early lead....led by 8 at the half...faltered down the stretch). I think Purdue's lopsided victory over the Gophers in Mackey eliminates the possibility of Minny overlooking them and probably will have revenge on their minds. Purdue has been able to hang with most clubs until half time on the road (Down by 8 at PSU, Down by 4 at IU, Down by 2 at MSU, Down by 8 at ILL, Up by 8 at Mich) but flat out wear down in the second half.
I see two ways to play this. I think the full game Minny at -11 or -12 is a great play but probably the best play may be to wait until halftime and hammer Minny for the 2H if the game is anywhere close.
I'm taking Minny -11 (bought a point at Pinny) as my second biggest play of the year (the other was FSU -11 over Purdue) because I won't be able to watch the game.
Sorry for the long winded report...even though I probably could have added many pages to it
Good luck if you play it
One post dont establish you in my book. 
