Questions on Celtics/Grizzlies game tonight

**sweetjones55** · 11-13-10, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by ayuntalo

SJ i just took Memphis..
dont know if this is a valid point for you but..
different variables in this game..at the end i picked memphis knowing that celtics frontline are banged up and memphis fronline offense is good..i think that will be a big factor

Memphis has Randolph/Gasol, Boston has Garnett/Davis. I don't think there is a big mismatch there. KG has been playing out of his skull.

**BernardMadoff** · 11-13-10, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

At the end of the day all the linesmakers and sportsbook owners are inherit gamblers.

Remember also all of these books put alot of faith in a few oddmakers or maybe even 1 or 2 people who come up with the number, their just copycats who run with the number and put it at their book.

**ayuntalo** · 11-13-10, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Memphis has Randolph/Gasol, Boston has Garnett/Davis. I don't think there is a big mismatch there. KG has been playing out of his skull.

im gonna disagree..randolph and gasol has good ofensive moves and they are much bigger..
stat wise maybe it will be near, but i think if covered one on one..gasol and randolph will score in post more times than not..
im just new to nba betting though and obviously you know better in nba betting, bet lets see bro

**BernardMadoff** · 11-13-10, 04:19 PM

So what really is going on, we know more bets are coming on Boston, I have a hard time believing enough is coming on Memphis to hold the number, if so someone definitely knows something or Vegas just isnt moving the number.

**sweetjones55** · 11-13-10, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

So what really is going on, we know more bets are coming on Boston, I have a hard time believing enough is coming on Memphis to hold the number, if so someone definitely knows something or Vegas just isnt moving the number.

Not only do I not believe there isn't enough money comin in on Memphis to hold the line at the number but think about when the books dropped the line to -2.5 two times already.

There is no way the number should not be moving, there can't be the same amount of action on this game. I am going to find out from the owner of two huge sportsbooks the amount of action on both sides and settle this for everyone.

**BernardMadoff** · 11-13-10, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Not only do I not believe there isn't enough money comin in on Memphis to hold the line at the number but think about when the books dropped the line to -2.5 two times already.

There is no way the number should not be moving, there can't be the same amount of action on this game. I am going to find out from the owner of two huge sportsbooks the amount of action on both sides and settle this for everyone.

Yeah that drop to -2.5 was to suck some more money on Boston to make people think their getting value by crossing 3. Bettors have learned and have gotten smart to know its a no play or Memphis but their heart will still steer them to Boston. In these cases Boston would win and not cover 9% of the time and cover about 10-15% of the time if the information given is accurate.

**Snowball** · 11-13-10, 05:06 PM

good posts all

so what u going with jones.. the "sharp" play ?

**Dexter** · 11-13-10, 05:27 PM

i think this is a classic example of the following: (numbers are fictitious)

600 Bets Made - Celtics
100 Bets Made - Grizzlies

(thats 85% action on boston)

$1mill has come in on boston
$900,000 has come in on memphis (including a few huge bricks dropped at the windows by wiseguys that the books know are their *sharp* players)

thats why the books dont bump the line higher imho...

**sweetjones55** · 11-13-10, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

i think this is a classic example of the following: (numbers are fictitious)

600 Bets Made - Celtics
100 Bets Made - Grizzlies

(thats 85% action on boston)

$1mill has come in on boston
$900,000 has come in on memphis (including a few huge bricks dropped at the windows by wiseguys that the books know are their *sharp* players)

thats why the books dont bump the line higher imho...

Could very well be, I am still trying to get real hard numbers for the $ amounts on each team from two big sites.

I did find out that someone put $250,000 on the Heat to win $10,000. Pretty insane if you ask me.

**Dexter** · 11-13-10, 05:39 PM

what do you guys think is more accurate for public bet%'s.....thespread.com or sbrodds.com?

right now sbr has bos at 60%....thespread 84%

**BernardMadoff** · 11-13-10, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

what do you guys think is more accurate for public bet%'s.....thespread.com or sbrodds.com?

right now sbr has bos at 60%....thespread 84%

Depends on which book its reporting from, Sbr uses 5Dimes I think. Also if you wont to believe its as accurate to the minute as it says it is.

**BernardMadoff** · 11-13-10, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

i think this is a classic example of the following: (numbers are fictitious)

600 Bets Made - Celtics
100 Bets Made - Grizzlies

(thats 85% action on boston)

$1mill has come in on boston
$900,000 has come in on memphis (including a few huge bricks dropped at the windows by wiseguys that the books know are their *sharp* players)

thats why the books dont bump the line higher imho...

Where did you get the actual amount in dollars bet on each team?

**sweetjones55** · 11-13-10, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Where did you get the actual amount bet on each team?

He said at the top of the post "numbers are fictitious. Look again

**sweetjones55** · 11-13-10, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

what do you guys think is more accurate for public bet%'s.....thespread.com or sbrodds.com?

right now sbr has bos at 60%....thespread 84%

Sportsinsights

**ParlayKing** · 11-13-10, 05:45 PM

Definitely a good discussion topic, this will help us later on in the season. But for this game a side shouldn't be chosen, it's a coin flip IMO

**Dexter** · 11-13-10, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Where did you get the actual amount in dollars bet on each team?

notice i said the #'s are "fictitious"

**Dexter** · 11-13-10, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

Sportsinsights

thats a paid for sight.....thespread.com mentions this:

Data Provided by SportsInsights.com

**y2kr1000** · 11-13-10, 05:53 PM

The line is set correct fot this game. Grizzlies play an uptempo game and have home court advantage. In saying that, it is hard not to like Boston in this spot since they have such depth and experience with one another. Grizzlies is probably the smart play but why bet against a team that is doing so well and has an excellent road record? I'm taking Boston for a straight up win in this one.

**sweetjones55** · 11-13-10, 05:56 PM

Grizzlies are now +3.5 on Legends, +3 -101 on Pinnacle.

**Pauulzcappin** · 11-13-10, 05:57 PM

Already booked 3x on Memphis spread/ML, gonna add another 2x

**nbarlotta3** · 11-13-10, 06:02 PM

Trap game for the Celtics. They just played a bunch of tough times and are probably going to come out flat against Memhis.

**jdhender** · 11-13-10, 06:17 PM

Gasol will give them problems with offensive rebounds - gay/mayo/conley are not tough enough to keep paul/ray/rajon in check (need a physical/athletic 3 to control pierce) - would be surprised to see memphis in this game

**aireent777** · 11-13-10, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by y2kr1000

The line is set correct fot this game. Grizzlies play an uptempo game and have home court advantage. In saying that, it is hard not to like Boston in this spot since they have such depth and experience with one another. Grizzlies is probably the smart play but why bet against a team that is doing so well and has an excellent road record? I'm taking Boston for a straight up win in this one.

exactly

**lakerboy** · 11-13-10, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Somewhat in theory yes. Depends on what you mean by equal action, I assume you mean number of bets then of course not, but we know the money being wagered on either side is what matters. When they put out a number what I think they try to do is have in mind which way they think it will move, a line of -3 is good for them, because the thinking is it will move closer to -4, but we know 3 is a key number to cross, so now you got people buying a point and by that it starts to work in their favor again. Thats their gamble if anything, not picking sides.

Give me some more data on this 3 being a key number to cross. Im interested. Thanks.

**impper** · 11-13-10, 11:34 PM

Looks like Griz was the right play in regulation but they crapped the bed in OT. haha

**BernardMadoff** · 11-14-10, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Give me some more data on this 3 being a key number to cross. Im interested. Thanks.

Going by how coache's strategize, plays out quite a bit this way in college bball. With time running down and down 5 or 6 many teams will try for a quick 2 or 3. Down 4 more times than not they go for a quick 2, if made their down by 2 and looking to foul. I heard this explained better by a pro gambler , can't recall his name right off but I'll find his name tomorrow since I'm on phone right now, it made sense how he explained it, he's pretty well known in poker and college bball.

**BernardMadoff** · 11-14-10, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Going by how coache's strategize, plays out quite a bit this way in college bball. With time running down and down 5 or 6 many teams will try for a quick 2 or 3. Down 4 more times than not they go for a quick 2, if made their down by 2 and looking to foul. I heard this explained better by a pro gambler , can't recall his name right off but I'll find his name tomorrow since I'm on phone right now, it made sense how he explained it, he's pretty well known in poker and college bball.

Alan Boston.