A few days ago, someone posted that it is always better to bet hoop underdogs of +2.5 or less on the Money Line than the take the points.
Well, I went back and analyzed the results of all NBA Underdogs since 1990 and all CBB Underdogs since 2000 with lines of +1, +1.5, +2 and +2.5 respectively. The results are below. I brike out NBA and CBB ino two sectoins: the conventional -110 establishments and the reduced juice -105 shops.
Please note that Equiv ML is defined as the Money Line that would have produced the same results as taking the points on every game. If the actual Money Line on the dog you are looking at is greater than the Equiv ML, the theoretically the Money Line is the better play. If the actual Money Line is less than the Equiv ML, then it is better to take the points.
Based on these results, I would say that for NBA, the Money Line is almost always the better play at full juice, and even where ATS is -105, the Money Line should almost always be the better play up to dogs of +2. At +2.5 -105 however, I would say that taking the points is usually the better move unless you could get an ML of +126 or higher. I say this because the Equiv ML in this case of +125.4 is pretty close to the actualy MLs of most +2.5 dogs, which is around +125.
CBB looks like a bit of a different animal. At -110 places, the Money Line looks like the better play in MOST cases, but not "almost always" like NBA. The biggest difference comes in the -105 shops, where with the exception of +1.5 underdogs, I would say it is usually a better play to take the small points.
Well, I went back and analyzed the results of all NBA Underdogs since 1990 and all CBB Underdogs since 2000 with lines of +1, +1.5, +2 and +2.5 respectively. The results are below. I brike out NBA and CBB ino two sectoins: the conventional -110 establishments and the reduced juice -105 shops.
Please note that Equiv ML is defined as the Money Line that would have produced the same results as taking the points on every game. If the actual Money Line on the dog you are looking at is greater than the Equiv ML, the theoretically the Money Line is the better play. If the actual Money Line is less than the Equiv ML, then it is better to take the points.
Code:
[B]NBA Underdogs of +2.5 or less Results since 1990 (through games of 1/29/08) NBA @ -110[/B] Spread W L P Pct Units 1 410 390 19 51.3% -19.00 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1 410 409 50.1% -105.1 Spread W L P Pct Units 1.5 323 337 0 48.9% -47.70 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1.5 309 351 46.8% -101.9 Spread W L P Pct Units 2 462 477 33 49.2% -62.70 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2 442 530 45.5% 105.7 Spread W L P Pct Units 2.5 518 528 0 49.5% -62.80 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2.5 448 598 42.8% 119.5 [B]NBA @ -105[/B] Spread W L P Pct Units 1 410 390 19 51.3% 0.50 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1 410 409 50.1% -100.1 Spread W L P Pct Units 1.5 323 337 0 48.9% -30.85 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1.5 309 351 46.8% 103.6 Spread W L P Pct Units 2 462 477 33 49.2% -38.85 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2 442 530 45.5% 111.1 Spread W L P Pct Units 2.5 518 528 0 49.5% -36.40 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2.5 448 598 42.8% 125.4 [B]CBB Underdogs of +2.5 or less Results since 2000 (through games of 1/29/08) CBB @ -110[/B] Spread W L P Pct Units 1 653 680 41 49.0% -95.00 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1 653 721 47.5% -104.3 Spread W L P Pct Units 1.5 406 404 0 50.1% -38.40 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1.5 379 431 46.8% 103.6 Spread W L P Pct Units 2 512 480 37 51.6% -16.00 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2 477 562 45.9% 114.5 Spread W L P Pct Units 2.5 515 572 0 47.4% -114.20 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2.5 440 647 40.5% 121.1 [B]CBB @ -105[/B] Spread W L P Pct Units 1 653 680 41 49.0% -61.00 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1 653 721 47.5% 101.1 Spread W L P Pct Units 1.5 406 404 0 50.1% -18.20 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 1.5 379 431 46.8% 108.9 Spread W L P Pct Units 2 512 480 37 51.6% 8.00 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2 477 562 45.9% 119.5 Spread W L P Pct Units 2.5 515 572 0 47.4% -85.60 SU W SU L SU Pct Equiv ML 2.5 440 647 40.5% 127.6
CBB looks like a bit of a different animal. At -110 places, the Money Line looks like the better play in MOST cases, but not "almost always" like NBA. The biggest difference comes in the -105 shops, where with the exception of +1.5 underdogs, I would say it is usually a better play to take the small points.