Good luck with this G
I will be following.....
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Good luck with this G
I will be following.....Comment -
I will be following too
good luck fellaComment -
I will be following too
good luck fellaComment -
Thanks guys right now I am unhappy with C bets...too many...so going to see if I can work on it for a few days...
I did receive a couple of systems to look at tonight but not really what I am looking for... If anyone has anything even a link with a system that works that can be modded drop me a pm...Comment -
Ok lets switch everything around... this system which has absolutely nothing to do with the other two...results (lots more losses) but lets look for a second or two... all would be -110
2010 system #3
also a 3 game chase
A wins- 75
B wins- 35
C wins- 15
losses 21
2009 system #3
a-73
b-35
c-13
losses 18
More games...but still to many losses with this system...maybe stopping at the end of B games after doubling on the B? Still not working none of the 3 systems tested are related in any way...Comment -
How many losses would we be able to sustain to show a decent profit whether betting as a $10 bettor or a unit bettor? Just trying to figure how many losses we could afford... Or a strategy of maybe stopping after say a 2 game chase, or a different amount after game A, not constantly doubling...Comment -
Guys I did receive 3 systems for review in my private messages last night nothing that I am sure I could use right now...the baseball one I will take a look at in spring but if it works will be added as a second system...my baseball system works fine... The hockey one may be interesting but the odds... Other than that if anyone has anything else to send in a pm I will review tonight...Comment -
if you risk 1, 2, 4 neither 2010 nor 2009 show a profit
if you risk 1, 2, 0 (only a and b) +2 units in 2009, -11.2 units in 2010
Avoiding the C bet seems better
so again the #3 is not profitable, not right now
Lets take for example #3, on avg A bets won 51.9%, B 24.5, C 9.8 and loss 13.68% of the time...assuming 1:2:4 risked you would lose 11.73% of your money
Assuming the win% ratio between A:B:C stays the same, which is in this case 5.3: 2.5 : 1, what would be the loss % to break even ?
0= (5.3*1*0.90-2.3*1-1*1-X*1) + (2.5*0.90*2-1*2-X*2) + (1*4*0.90-X*4)
0 = (win a -losses game a) + (win b -losses game b) + (win c - losses game c)
next step is you take together everything where we have no X
0 = 7.37 - 7X
7X = 7.37
X = 1.05
Now we add 5.3 + 2.5 + 1+ 1.05 = 9.85
Now we devide 100% / 9.85 = 10.15% = 1
A :B :C : Loss
53.81 : 25.38 : 10.15 : 10.66 = 100 %
that would be 1 combination for a 3 game chase
2 game chase is the same, you could also set more variables than just X, you could set 1 for A, B and/or C, but to solve that it gets a bit more difficult...Comment -
Will keep working...there has to be something...and I do not want it to be quarters I know alot of people work at different hours and are not always home during the games to be jumping in live... Each night for a week i will try something different...two nights down 5 to go...Comment -
ok last night spent my time on a 4 game chase... This one has promise... It went 128-9... Adding one filter 2 losses would be eliminated and 3 wins. What I like here is most of the games ended after either A or B... I think I have two systems that I am interested in going with now... but need to work on the filters...
Also with the 128-9 system needs further back testing...Comment -
money management will be the key...when I start the thread it will not be the morrison style of doubling till the end...one system will involve mainly -110 plays...the other may require the buying of 3 points...will spend tonight further backtesting 128-9 system...Comment -
ok so going back to the thought of a 2 game chase doubling at -110...what record will we need to produce a winning year? Going to stop at B will give totals in a few...Comment -
ok here is the last system broken down by filtering into two systems for one year..
Going to call them System Y and system Z
ok...system Y break down...
A-37
B-16
C-08
D-02
TOTAL WINS-63
LOSSES 7
System Z
A-40
B-18
C-05
D-03
TOTAL WINS 66
LOSSES 2
Thoughts? Original numbers were off by one...Comment -
I think with the shift of the heavy weight of wins to the A and B games I have something here... Cutting out the C and D games would really adjust risk downward... and would only cost us an additional 18 losses... I believe I could run with this one! Ant thoughts would be appreciated from you math gurus...
I will need to back test another year or two...Last edited by G's pks; 09-25-10, 10:43 AM.Comment -
system Y and Z for -110 both ?
A:B ratio 1:2 ?
at first it looks pretty solid, lots of A and B wins... more years would be great
wont be able to reply back until sunday around 1pm or so
GLComment -
OK... I have found a modified system I am going to be posting this year...I prefer not to be asked any questions about it, do not want people posting/guessing picks. It will be another weighted system where I will be capping and making decisions within the system as needed it will be started in a new thread when the season starts...no preseason crap for me ever.
The thread will be called G's NBA system thread. I will post information in there on how to follow the picks. There should be from
75-150 series a year hopefully... GL everyone...
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I will be sure to keep an eye on this G, and will most likely be following come October. I have a system of my own that I've been working on, backtested for the last 3 seasons and shown a nice profit. Only another month to wait!
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GL...pretty sure I have a winner running a another year right now... But it looks like the right one for me...Comment