Does it really matter? How this year is going it seems like the answer is no and it is reflected in the line anyway, does anyone have the numbers how teams playing the 2nd game in the back to back ATS?
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Thanks for the help guys
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Well I can't answer definitively for this year since I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I can tell you my impressions of what the case has generally been historically (although I might be somewhat off on some of my impressions), and my impressions anecdotally.
Historically, it is a bit of an overrated factor, in recent years teams on back-to-backs suffer a negligible amount ATS, probably because it's such an easy factor to measure that the market has been able to accurately factor it into the lines, overall. However, road teams on the second games of B2Bs still seem to take a tougher hit, and that is a factor which, if I remember correctly, still hasn't been fully factored into NBA lines. I might be misremembering the ATS part, but it's definitely the case that road teams on the second games of B2Bs suffer, and should get an extra boost in the lines.
But anecdotally, it is still a factor that can have a big impact depending on the travel situation and the teams involved. Look no further than the Phoenix/Lakers game from early on in the year, when Phoenix got back from Seattle at 4 AM or something like that. It was clearly a key factor that contributed to the "unexpected" result of that game that deviated from the closing line so starkly.
So overall, I'd say that as a general factor, it's overrated in importance, but on a case-by-case basis, it can certainly be a hugely important factor.Last edited by The HG; 12-08-07, 02:39 PM.Comment -
Thanks for the comments HG, I know starting now I am lowering my stock in the back to back, only time will tell how it works.Comment -
I looked into that and found that without applying additional filters the effect is negligible. If you want to look how different teams perform playing back-to-back (which might be a possible angle but something I personally do not use) you can do this here:
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Thanks dataComment -
Teams playing the second of a back-to-back since 2000:
ALL: 2044-2164-74, 48.6% ATS
Home off of Home: 47-50-0, 48.5%
Road off of Home: 643-685-29, 48.4%
Home off of Road: 611-639-21, 48.9%
Road off of Road: 743-790-24, 48.5%
Grossly overrated angle that is just in the 51% range across the board.Comment -
You have to look at it on a team by team basis. Teams that rely on flow, such as the Suns, are great without rest. A couple of seasons ago the Spurs were terrible without rest. Location can play a role. Road teams without rest used to run out of gas out Mile High, etc.
Today was the exception. Suns without rest, on last game of five game road trip, with plane trouble (arriving in town early in morning), against worst team in league, and a nice dose of home refs added.
Still, the Suns covered 1Q.
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It's generally reflected in the line.
For example, home court in the NBA is assumed to be worth about 3.5 pts on average. But, I've found if both teams are rested (ie neither played last night) it's only about 3.2 pts. If the home team is rested though, and the vistor not, home court is worth about 4.7pts.
As Dark Hourse said, some teams to well, some don't. But, as a whole you'll find the teams rest is usually reflected in the line.Comment -
i have been following another guy whos been tracking this trend the last 2 weeks or so.....7-0 since tracking this. road dogs who win outright are 0-7 ats when playing the very next night. i dunno, looks interesting anyways, no action on it tonight.Comment -
Yeah this will be an interesting game, for sure, especially since Miami is basically rotating 5 guys at the 1 through 4. Haslem, Wade and Quinn all played 40+ mins last night.
On the other hand, Miami has covered twice recently on the road on a B2B against tough teams, Utah and GS.
But yes, Phoenix is a few notches better than either of those, and different as well, as DD blowouts are not an uncommon thing for them. And this might easily be one where Miami mails it in, knowing the road trip is done after this.
On the other hand, for "conventional wisdom" angle people, Phoenix is on their first game back off of a long road trip.
But I agree that psychologically, ending that trip with a loss probably leaves Phoenix with a bad taste, while Miami psychologically is in a bad spot, having just pulled off a road win, finally, and playing the last game of a long and disappointing road trip.
Very interesting game, at first I liked Miami because the line is so big, but now if I had to take a side it would be Phoenix.Comment -
The system tracks "road dogs who win outright". Miami was a favorite vs. Clippers and therefore the game at Phoenix falls outside of the system.Comment -
thanks for pointing that out to him data. ya beat me to it.Comment -
In my opinion it depends on the team. Some teams are good enough to win back to back like Orlando. Tonight you have Miami doing a back to back but they are not good enough win at Phoenix and you have Houston doing back to back playing Phliadephia tonight. Houston could lose but Philadephia may not be good enough to get a win.Comment -
streak still alive with a toronto win over atlanta tonight...looks like wed.night we got the clippers at the hornets...streak says to play the hornets.
gotta be honest, the streak is 8-0 (since tracking)but this is the 1st one that worries me a little. gotta roll with it thoughComment -
portland fits the trend as well... road dog winner last night, playing g.s. so tonights road dogs who win but dont cover ats games are...
g.s.-5 at portland....play g.s.-5
clippers+5 at bobcats....play bobcats-5Last edited by raydog; 12-13-07, 01:24 AM.Comment -
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hell yeah, ima fukin dumbass. i hope whoever follows realized that it was the bobcats by the team playing the clippers and the # that was posted. was in a huge hurry at work. and played the hornets as well and just got em fukt up typing too fast. sorry bout the wrong team posted but like i said, hopefully everyone caught on after seers post. thanks broComment -
If I'm not mistaken it was 0-2 last night.Comment -
yep.Comment
