Trying to help everyone make $$$$$$$$$

**magic8ball** · 06-15-10, 11:55 PM

Ok, so I bet 13x to win 10x on the lakers series. Now my options are 1. let it ride. 2. Hedge with the Celtics ml (at more than 2-1) or take the Celtics points and try for a middle. Please explain how I went wrong again. I started the thread not to pull a lock outa my ass, like many do here, but to show how thinking outside the box offered other options besides 3x juice or 6.5 points (not that the points turned out to be a problem), and all I get is it wont work, or Celtics win. Good luck with game 7 Einsteins.

**u21c3f6** · 06-17-10, 05:16 PM

Magic, You did not go wrong. It was a well thought out hedge (and one that I did as well). The Championship odds "told" everyone that the line for a game 7 should be well over 200. I set my hedge to breakeven if Boston won Game 6 leaving me with a position in Game 7 that became profitable at a line of only 214 and above. We got a bonus IMO because LA won by a large margin which sent the line around 300 early on.

Most of my sports wagering involves a hedge of some sort. For me, hedges are actually more predictable, have less risk and can generate very good profits because you can use a larger % of your bankroll to set them up. Good luck on your future hedges.

Joe.

**big0mar** · 06-17-10, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by magic8ball

Ok, here's the thesis. Step 1. You put $2000 on the lakers series line at evenish odds. Step 2. Bet the Celtics game 6 ml for about +250 for about $1000. OUTCOME Celts win you're up $500ish. Step 3. If lakers win, you bet $900 more on the Celtics ml at +250ish. Thereby if in game 7 the Lakers win, you earn $100ish. If the celts win, you earn $225ish. Show me the fault.

The fault is in your math. With this scenario, if the Celtics win in 7, you would have lost $750 overall.

-$2000 on Lakers future
-$1000 on Celtics game 6
+$2250 on Celtics game 7

Am I missing something?

**big0mar** · 06-17-10, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by magic8ball

Ok, so I bet 13x to win 10x on the lakers series. Now my options are 1. let it ride. 2. Hedge with the Celtics ml (at more than 2-1) or take the Celtics points and try for a middle. Please explain how I went wrong again. I started the thread not to pull a lock outa my ass, like many do here, but to show how thinking outside the box offered other options besides 3x juice or 6.5 points (not that the points turned out to be a problem), and all I get is it wont work, or Celtics win. Good luck with game 7 Einsteins.

No offense, but it isn't really thinking outside the box at all.

**u21c3f6** · 06-17-10, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by big0mar

The fault is in your math. With this scenario, if the Celtics win in 7, you would have lost $750 overall.

-$2000 on Lakers future
-$1000 on Celtics game 6
+$2250 on Celtics game 7

Am I missing something?

I should have looked at Magic's actual scenario a little closer before responding. It was still an excellent hedging opportunity but I agree that Magic's set-up was not the best. My personal scenario was that I had 2.75 units on LA Championship for every one unit I had on Boston ML in game 6. This left me the position as I posted above.

Joe.

**chiliv5** · 06-18-10, 05:26 PM

This is a good plan..........

**magic8ball** · 06-18-10, 08:33 PM

For what it's worth guys, I did not do all the computing, I even said I was not going to hedge with Boston game 6 after rethinking it. I bet LA 13x to win 10x on the series that I unfortunately hedged in game 7 on parlays involving Bost ml and LA -7. The theory in general was not meant to be profitable no matter what the outcome. (It would not be gambling if that were the case), it would just be (getting money). If anyone sees that in the future let me know. Oh well, on to football. Something I usually make money at.