Total opened at 195.5 -- now at 192 and still dropping

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Total opened at 195.5 -- now at 192 and still dropping
    I've even seen a few 191.5's out there.

    Even so, 56% of the public's still on the under as of late Wednesday night.

    Take the over, folks. This one flirts with 200. Fresh legs, should be a close game, two teams who play well with decent rest....I'm not buying a 4-point Vegas error in the opening number. It's a trap for the under IMHO.

  • Pauulzcappin
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-23-10
    • 20295

    #2
    Comment
    • beanbag
      SBR MVP
      • 01-21-10
      • 2364

      #3
      love this play!
      Comment
      • Sildenafil
        SBR High Roller
        • 05-18-10
        • 174

        #4
        - The 1st Q total of 48.0 has gone over 5 out of last 7 meetings between these 2 @ LA
        - The 1st Q total of 48.0 has gone over 8 out of last 14 meetings between these 2 overall.

        - The 1st half total of 95.5 has gone over 6 out of last 7 meetings between these 2 @ LA
        - The 1st half total of 95.5 has gone over 11 out of last 14 meetings between these 2 overall.

        - The full game total of 192.0 has gone over 3 out of last 7 meetings between these 2 @ LA.
        - The full game total of 192.0 has gone over 8 out of last 14 meetings between these 2 overall.


        1st half over is a safer bet for me based on these stats than the full game over
        Comment
        • PAULYPOKER
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-06-08
          • 36581

          #5
          They are just trying to even the $ out there cowboy don't get fooled..........................
          Comment
          • babyanni
            SBR MVP
            • 09-23-09
            • 1780

            #6
            yeah i like the over as well
            Comment
            • SparJMU
              SBR MVP
              • 02-18-10
              • 1648

              #7
              As soon as this line came out I hammered the under. The under is the play of this series, I plan on betting it almost every single game.
              Comment
              • Foals
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 01-20-10
                • 857

                #8
                Was thinking about playing the under, now not I'm not so sure
                Comment
                • soxwin
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-05-10
                  • 1885

                  #9
                  the key for the celtics or the under is playing as a team just as it was in 2008. If they play 1 on 1 hoops on either offense or defense they lose and the games will go over. if the Lakers can get the c's out of the team concept, then the Lakers and the overs are near certainty
                  Comment
                  • ECSdesign
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 06-01-10
                    • 60

                    #10
                    If the Celtics are going to win, I like the under. Fresh legs also can mean increased defensive intensity, not just improved shooting.
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                      They are just trying to even the $ out there cowboy don't get fooled..........................


                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                      I've even seen a few 191.5's out there.

                      Even so, 56% of the public's still on the under as of late Wednesday night.

                      Take the over, folks. This one flirts with 200. Fresh legs, should be a close game, two teams who play well with decent rest....I'm not buying a 4-point Vegas error in the opening number. It's a trap for the under IMHO.

                      Comment
                      • shoebox
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-26-08
                        • 5710

                        #12
                        Who doe that favor? Celtics!!
                        Comment
                        • No coincidences
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 76300

                          #13
                          At 191.5 now. Get it while you can, folks.
                          Comment
                          • No coincidences
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 76300

                            #14
                            Originally posted by shoebox
                            Who doe that favor? Celtics!!
                            Public likes Boston and the under so far, shoe. 55 and 60%.
                            Comment
                            • anjaru
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-27-10
                              • 558

                              #15
                              I disagree. Too many days off in between usually results in sloppy plays and missed shots from not being in rhythm. Also, with defensive-oriented teams like these two, you can bet the intensity will be there. It will take a few quarters for them to get their shots back. Don't be fooled into thinking that it's a trap bet. In these playoffs we've learned that the spread has not been on target with the actual game points.
                              Comment
                              • No coincidences
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 76300

                                #16
                                Originally posted by anjaru
                                I disagree. Too many days off in between usually results in sloppy plays and missed shots from not being in rhythm. Also, with defensive-oriented teams like these two, you can bet the intensity will be there. It will take a few quarters for them to get their shots back. Don't be fooled into thinking that it's a trap bet. In these playoffs we've learned that the spread has not been on target with the actual game points.
                                Yes and no. I think you're going to see more up-tempo than what you may assume at first blush.
                                Comment
                                • CLASSIC ROCK
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 07-23-09
                                  • 574

                                  #17
                                  yea,like the under here
                                  Comment
                                  • Wilforth
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 05-10-08
                                    • 16309

                                    #18
                                    1H UNDER 95.5 (-110)
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Wilforth
                                      1H UNDER 95.5 (-110)
                                      Really? I could see a relatively high-scoring 1Q (50-52 points), so I don't know if I agree with that -- but BOL, Wil.

                                      Comment
                                      • PAULYPOKER
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-06-08
                                        • 36581

                                        #20
                                        The only side the Public likes in this game Coin is the UNDER,,the $ is even everywhere else

                                        So this is the only solid Vegas play,, so take the over watch the game and try to spot which team will be the dominant force in this series................
                                        Comment
                                        • nobull
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-24-09
                                          • 830

                                          #21
                                          if ever there was a time to go all in on the over, its tonight. back up the truck and load up on some OVER easy. should be over by the end of the 3rd Q. this game will be a foul fest thanks to our beloved refs make no mistake about it. kobe will indeed get the most foul shots of all.
                                          Comment
                                          • PAULYPOKER
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-06-08
                                            • 36581

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by nobull
                                            if ever there was a time to go all in on the over, its tonight. back up the truck and load up on some OVER easy. should be over by the end of the 3rd Q. this game will be a foul fest thanks to our beloved refs make no mistake about it. kobe will indeed get the most foul shots of all.
                                            I like your Style............................
                                            Comment
                                            • Goat Milk
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 03-24-10
                                              • 25850

                                              #23
                                              Lakers 103 Boston 86
                                              Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                                              Comment
                                              • PAULYPOKER
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-06-08
                                                • 36581

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Goat Milk
                                                Lakers 103 Boston 86
                                                Lakers 95 Boston 94
                                                Comment
                                                • Goat Milk
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 03-24-10
                                                  • 25850

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                  Lakers 95 Boston 94
                                                  Then your over is no good.
                                                  Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-06-08
                                                    • 36581

                                                    #26
                                                    LA.97 +Bo. 96 = 193

                                                    Now it is


                                                    Comment
                                                    • suicidekings
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                      • 9962

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                      The only side the Public likes in this game Coin is the UNDER,,the $ is even everywhere else

                                                      So this is the only solid Vegas play,, so take the over watch the game and try to spot which team will be the dominant force in this series................
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Shifty107
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-05-10
                                                        • 1582

                                                        #28
                                                        Joey Crawford Reffing tonight. Expect AMAZING to happen.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pat venditto
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 05-07-07
                                                          • 14347

                                                          #29
                                                          I like boston and over in this one.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • PAULYPOKER
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-06-08
                                                            • 36581

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by pat venditto
                                                            I like boston and over in this one.




                                                            Just kidding Patty you'd better not jinx this fukker
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Raadmand
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 02-15-10
                                                              • 87

                                                              #31
                                                              The Over is know locked after 2 hours of analysing.

                                                              Conclusion: The value on the Over was just getting to big to pass. At BetFair i have my bet matched at 2.26 and with my percentage of 45% it's represent a small value.

                                                              Cheers.

                                                              And good luck tonight guys.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • frostno98
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 09-11-07
                                                                • 9769

                                                                #32
                                                                If Boston wants to win, this game going under. It might take the Lakers until game 2 to figure how to adjust to Boston D. This will the first game in awhile, where every single Lakers is going to be actually defended. Unlike that Phoenix series. Plus Odom won't be going off, with Rasheed Wallace coming off the bench to put him in check.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • No coincidences
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                                  • 76300

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by frostno98
                                                                  If Boston wants to win, this game going under. It might take the Lakers until game 2 to figure how to adjust to Boston D. This will the first game in awhile, where every single Lakers is going to be actually defended. Unlike that Phoenix series. Plus Odom won't be going off, with Rasheed Wallace coming off the bench to put him in check.


                                                                  Why would you say that?

                                                                  I personally think Boston is overrated defensively. They're a good defensive team, but not a great one.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-06-08
                                                                    • 36581

                                                                    #34
                                                                    This is how I see it tonight> LA. wins,, Boston covers and the Total goes over
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Goat Milk
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 03-24-10
                                                                      • 25850

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Boston is a great defensive team NC let's not get carried away.
                                                                      Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                                                                      Comment
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