[RunBookRun]

... is there really a way to accurately and consistently predict the outcome of any sporting events? Especially such an especially rapid game like basketball where a dozen lead changes can occur in a single game, with far too variables to possibly anticipate.. are we just chasing unicorns and crawling around on the forest floor for fresh Bigfoot tracks?


Handicapping appears to be as much about player psychology as it is matchup evaluation. There is a reason why successful players in the regular season repeatedly fail perform when there are no guarantees of tomorrow (Harden, Prescott et al).
i have created (and abandoned) dozens of strategies that were initially successful but failed after continued exposure to ever expanding circumstances on and off the court. Even ex-players (now analysts), armed with first person knowledge of all aspects of the game fail to continually fail to predict the outcome and games/series, usualy deferring to teams with better record/home court.


Though we all understand there has never been a Bigfoot or any sporting event that will play out 100% as expected, i will continue to develop handicapping strategies and to post picks based on my discovery.

[RunBookRun]

Jan. 25, 2024


Denver@NY Knicks
NY (+0.5) 1st HALF


Nuggets on last night of 12 day road trip, just want to go home. Knicks playing well (rested) and at home.Expect slow start by Nuggets, if Denver does something big tonight, it will come 2nd Half.

[RunBookRun]

7 min. left.. knicks up 17.

safe to look away now. glad I went heavy

[RunBookRun]

prolly low scoring 2H.. but will leave it alone. more tmrw

[RunBookRun]

CLE@MIL (second leg B2B) has some weaknesses we can exploit
will look deeper

[RunBookRun]

CLE@MIL
Bucks 20 fast break pts.
10 offensive rebounds
28 free throws

game given away
coaches must have went off on the lads
adjustments not only message to bucks, but to fans:
"don't think we can't come in here and win. we can"

CLE@MIL
CLE (+3) 1st HALF

[RunBookRun]

Jan. 27, 2024

Phi@Den
PHI (+7.5) 2H

Sixers look fine 1H.

[RunBookRun]

weakness detected. tomorrow afternoon

[RunBookRun]

Jan. 28, 2024

Injury riddled Memphis getting job done on road last two. 4-2 last 6 games. Holding opponents Under 110 pts (last 9 games except Clippers. I think today more of same.

Mem@Ind
MEM (+9) Game

IND PTS Under (119)

[RunBookRun]

IND will probably cover the (-3) in the 3Q against Memphis,
but will leave alone. not official pick.

[RunBookRun]

I did end up taking IND 3Q for a modest bite.
nothing close to previous selections.. just for a little spice. all good.
\
can see possibilities tmrw

[RunBookRun]

lot of games tonight

[RunBookRun]

Feb 2, 2024

Hot Miami takes cold Washington

Mia@Was

MIA (-2.5) 1Q
MIA (-4.5) 1H

[RunBookRun]

not seeing any sides today... maybe try Totals for a change

[RunBookRun]

Feb 10, 2024

SAS@BKN (57) Over

PHI@WAS (62) Under

[RunBookRun]

ok. all good for today

[RunBookRun]

Feb 14, 2024


Sas@Dal

DAL (-3.5) 1Q

[The_Mr-B_]

... is there really a way to accurately and consistently predict the outcome of any sporting events? Especially such an especially rapid game like basketball where a dozen lead changes can occur in a single game, with far too variables to possibly anticipate.. are we just chasing unicorns and crawling around on the forest floor for fresh Bigfoot tracks?


Handicapping appears to be as much about player psychology as it is matchup evaluation. There is a reason why successful players in the regular season repeatedly fail perform when there are no guarantees of tomorrow (Harden, Prescott et al).
i have created (and abandoned) dozens of strategies that were initially successful but failed after continued exposure to ever expanding circumstances on and off the court. Even ex-players (now analysts), armed with first person knowledge of all aspects of the game fail to continually fail to predict the outcome and games/series, usualy deferring to teams with better record/home court.


Though we all understand there has never been a Bigfoot or any sporting event that will play out 100% as expected, i will continue to develop handicapping strategies and to post picks based on my discovery.

When theres only 2 options for certain pick you can always flip a coin. Heads is team on left side, tails is the one on right. Odds of picking correct side is 50/50 either way so may as well have a little fun with it I guess. I use my lucky 1884 Morgan Silver Dollar

[RunBookRun]

starting experiment. closing previous (this thread) at 7-3-0

so, same thread, but new capping style.

[RunBookRun]

Feb 27, 2024

Dubs@Was
WAS (+4) 1Q

Wizards at home. Warriors playing poorly, only scored 97pts against terrible Hornets adjusting to life without Hayward. Hornets scored a mere 84, (wasn't Dub D.)

Expect more of same from Golden St. early in this one. Washington + points.

[RunBookRun]

tomorrow better than tonite.
only thing that caught my eye was NOR@IND Over 58.5 1Q
but I prefer Sides. so will wait.

[RunBookRun]

March 2, 2024

Por@Mem
POR (+0.5) 1Q

Blazers on fire 2H last game.. same city.. same team.
I think continuation for at least another Qtr.

[RunBookRun]

March 3, 2024

Cha@Tor
TOR (-2) 1Q

Toronto scoring 4 straight games over 120pts, Charlotte choking out 4 straight under 100. Charlotte won first game/reg. season series.. then Toronto next two. Raptors want to make certain that they don't split series. Will come out hard 1Q, play solid 'D' early hoping to get a leg up before Halftime. Toronto (-2)

[RunBookRun]

closing 2nd trial.. record 2-1-0

[RunBookRun]

NBA Cheatcode (3.0)

March 7, 2024

starting off with a couple of faves

Bkn@Det
BKN (-0.5) 1Q

Mia@Dal
DAL (-1.5) 1Q

[RunBookRun]

well, 0-2 is a non-starter for a capping system. abandon immediately.. (3.0) closed 0-2
running similar test (cheat code 4.0), early testing indicates go.

March 9, 2024

Bkn@Cha
CHA (+2) 1Q

Charlotte trying to get back to form when they won 5 of 6 stretch two weeks ago. Would like to start strong back at home, since terrible performance vs Orlando March 5th.

(not official, for observation)
Dal@Det
OVER (60.5pts) 1Q

Dallas wants to start fast after losing 3 of 4.
Pistons gain steam with strong 2H over Brooklyn, back in 'W' column, back at home for 5 games.

[RunBookRun]

maybe make the target a bit larger. 1Q too narrow a target. or back 1Q with 1H. so win both or even out.

[RunBookRun]

March 9, 2024

sas@gsw

OVER (55.5) 1Q

OVER (110.5) 1H

[RunBookRun]

noticed something new.. shift in approach. (5.0)

Mon. March 11, 2024

Dal@Chi

CHI (+1) 1Q

[RunBookRun]

Mon. March 11, 2024

Cha@Det Over (53.5) looks promising. but with new strategies, prefer Sides until fully vetted.
if this 1Q goes over 60pts. Then we have something.

[RunBookRun]

more tweaks..

[RunBookRun]

yesterday lucky loss. revealed good information.

if WSH (-0.5) vs.MEM 1Q

——— and———

NYK (-2) vs.PHI 1Q

both happen, then progress made

[RunBookRun]

ok. getting better. every win/every loss = progress.
took note of flaws in WSH pick over Memphis last night.

from those observations I gather that
CHARLOTTE (-0.5) over Memphis 1Q, not a blowout, handful of pts.

[RunBookRun]

Charlotte 31 Memphis 19. better than expected.
will have to check why, but glad to be on right side of expectation.

perhaps this is the method distilled to the essence that is effective for my means.
Charlotte/Memphis will be game 1 of the lengthy experiment. nbacheatcode (6.0)

[RunBookRun]

Thurs. March 14th

a few things tonite, but this is the one I like best.
Rockets win 5 of 6, three in a row, WSH not good. Houston should be able to squeeze the cover out 1Q.

HOUSTON (-2.5) over Washington 1Q