NBA Preview 2007/2008 by Andre Gomes

**andre gomes** · 10-23-07, 02:07 PM

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Another season is coming and Spurs look as always since Tim Duncan entrance to collect another NBA Championship. This summer was quiet calm as Spurs didn’t change anything relevant in their roster. Brazilian Tiago Splitter will play in Spain, the 28th overall pick in the draft have to wait another year.

2006/2007 58W 24L 98.5/90.1 PPG
2005/2006 63W 19L 95.6/88.8 PPG
2004/2005 59W 23L 96.2/88.4 PPG
2003/2004 57W 25L 91.5/84.3 PPG

All the organization is supported by the greatness of Tim Duncan, if he stays fit the magic numbers 20 points 10 rebounds per game will appear, but playing year after year isn’t not easy for a guy that probably no other man had played more games than Duncan this years.

I expected a little more prospect in drafting or off season moves to improve forward position. Elson, Oberto and Horry (Bonner maybe) will be in the mix but Horry’s shutdown last season caused some problems to Spurs.

Last season they didn’t had to fight against Dallas but if that happen this season, Spurs might needed a little more they can afford. How long Manu Ginobili will be happy being a reserve? How many teams would like to have a starter like Manu? Manu gives anything to team, but he’s a superstar in his own right. Some tough calls to Popovich here.

For shooting guard Michael Finlay and Brent Barry will fill the position. Veteran Finlay had 2 different facets last season: as reserve and as a starter, curiously he’s numbers increased a lot when he started. From 8.5 PPG and 35%, for 11.4 PPG and 41%.

Finally the best man in NBA Finals: Tony Parker! Tony is now at his prime, probably no one would imagine these 3 years ago, but the fact is that Tony is a smart player, he redefined this game and with Popovich’s help Tony is now a top mvp candidate.
Do you remember when Tony Parker entered for Spurs years ago? Well, that Parker no longer exists! Last 3 seasons he decreased 3PTs attempts and their % Free Throws is amazing: 2005 – 65%; 2006 – 70%; 2007 – 78%.

Spurs and maybe Dallas will be the best road teams in the competition, they almost beat a record last season, and their ability to control the game in late situations is superb.

Spurs for sure will be in battle for a top spot in Western conference, but their chances to win championship won’t be bigger by the fact they are the reign champs. A possible matchup in Playoffs with Houston and then Dallas for example would be too much for a needed Tim Duncan

**andre gomes** · 10-23-07, 02:08 PM

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Could you imagine the Rockets as one of most exciting teams in the league? Well, with Rick Adelman this will happen.

Historic Stats:

2006/2007 52W 30L 97.0/92.1 PPG
2005/2006 34W 48L 90.1/91.7 PPG
2004/2005 51W 31W 95.1/91.0 PPG
2003/2004 45W 37L 89.8/88.0 PPG

At Sacramento, Adelman utilized the talents of forward Chris Webber and rookie point guard Jason Williams and turned the Kings into the highest-scoring team in the league, going from 93.1 points per game in 1997-98 to 100.2 ppg in 1998-99, even though the league average dipped from 95.6 ppg to 91.6 ppg.

Rockets last season made 97.0 PPG, it won’t be difficult score more than 105 PPG this season with the actual roster.

With Jeff Van Gundy, Rockets was always a slow paced rhythm, aggressive defense half court and supported in a static attack. Yao Ming and T Mac made good numbers but they can make much more together.

I believe the sign of Adelman was a perfect move to help Yao and Tracy improve their numbers. No question that Rockets will have better ball movement more assists and of course more FG attempts.

Yao was 25.0 PPG, almost more 7 points his career stats. Finally we will see Yao’s ability to assist and involved more players surrounded him.

Mutombo would help the team with his 10/15 min per game.

Everyone is expecting K. Durant or Gregg Oden (not anymore) to dominate Rookies competition, but I’ll put my hand in Argentinean Star Louis Scola! Scola was the FIBA Americas MVP - played against the likes of Amare Stoudemire and Dwight Howard. He’s relentless posture will help Yao against tough opponents, imagine a Manu Ginobili playing at PF position, that’s Scola.

How Tracy and Shane Battier cohabit in the same team? The simple solution is putting T Mac at SG position, Battier is a great defender and useful to some matchups that during season Rockets will need.

Putting T Mac as SG immediately starts a problem to Adelman: Luther Head, Steve Francis, Bonzi Wells, Kirk Snyder all for one spot!

Bonzi Wells could figure heavily in Houston’s plans now that Rick Adelman is at the helm. Wells had the best year of his career playing for Adelman and the two sides are confident he can be that good again. Luther Head recently signed a new contract and he’s part in the future of organization.

And what about Steve Francis? There’s a possibility to Rockets get ridded of him, Francis has the best numbers of his career with Rockets but he has no understanding of how to feed the post and isn’t a good decision-maker. In the Adelman system a player like him can’t fit in the roster.

Finally the problematic position for Rockets: Point Guard.

Rafer Alston has been a solid starter for Houston with 13.3 PPG and 5.4 APG, but his name is talked to a possible trade and even worst he’s been messed up in extra-sports problems. The guy was in jails two times in a short time and he need to clean his head.

Mike James returns to Rockets after a disappointing season in Minnesota. He was a good season in Toronto averaging 20.3 PPG but has the cold numbers of 2.61 TO/game. I simply don’t know if he has the player Adelman wants to his system. James is shooting minded Point Guard and Adelman needed a guy to make day on 7/8 assists per game.

These Rockets have the best roster since Hakeem’s Olajuwon NBA Champions team, if T Mac and Yao stay fit all season they could easily grab 55 win or plus. Facing the playoffs then is another question, but until now we will see a running Rockets.

**andre gomes** · 10-23-07, 02:08 PM

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Jerry West made in May an great decision to name Marc Iavaroni as the new Memphis coach. Iavaroni will surely have the most problematic job in the league, as he’s not only will have to implement his own methods but he will have also to change the whole mentality of the club, as a 22-60 record last season clearly requires such change.

So the million dollar question here is “Is Iavaroni the right man?”

The answer for me is quite easy: Yes, no doubt!

Marc Iavaroni spent the previous five seasons with the Phoenix Suns, and if you remember in 2003-04 season when Phoenix had a 29-53 record, in the next season Phoenix managed to have the best record in NBA: 62-20. So Iavaroni will have the same task this year with the Memphis that he had and did with brilliant success with the Suns.

What can we expect from a former Mike D’Antoni assistant? Of course an exciting Run and Gun style, that is the propose of Iavaroni’s adventure in Memphis. Last season, after Mike Frattelo departure, Memphis tried to use a run and gun style but completely failed! They didn’t have a guy who could control the rhythm and could choose the best decision (a Steve Nash version Memphis). Chucky Atkins was one of those guys playing as PG, but how a guy with 3.7 apg could control a run and gun team? Impossible! Chucky Atkins is out of Memphis this season inevitably.

Memphis drafted Mike Conley Jr. at 4th position. It was a good pick; Conley Jr has a great future. He is too unselfish, also a great defender and a tenacious player, but it might be too soon to lead a team to success in their first season. There are some skills that he will need to improve, specially the 3-point range and taking more risks with the shots.

Kyle Lowry is another possibility. Lowry, the second-year point guard from Villanova, was on the verge of taking over as the team’s starting point guard as a rookie last year before fracturing his wrist and having to sit out almost the entire season. Lowry has an amazing speed, TJ Ford style but he isn’t capable of leading this team.

Of course only Veteran point guard Damon Stoudamire could do this job. Stoudamire has worked out all summer and reportedly is ready to play at a high level and regain his starting job. If he can stay fit Stoudamire is the right man to do this job.

Memphis has also signed Spanish star Juan Carlos Navarro, Gasol’s teammate in the Spanish national team. He will be quite useful in the roster, with Mike Miller and Tarence Kinsey competing with him for the SG position, but Navarro offers a different option that Miller used to provide to team. Navarro penetrations in clutch plays will be noticed this season.

And what about Rudy Gay? Well, Iavaroni is the right guy to help him in developing into a future All Star. Don’t forget Iavaroni was an assistant coach for the Cleveland Cavaliers under former Grizzlies Head Coach Mike Fratello for two seasons (1997-99), concentrating his efforts on the development of the team’s front court players.

Gay has the strength and amazing physical skills that will turn him onto a style very similar to Suns star Shawn Marion. He plays in SF position but he could play at power forward providing Memphis a more flexible team when they need to pace the game onto an open court style.

Memphis signed Darko Milicic to help Gasol in the front court, but he has yet to truly live up to the hype that surrounded him prior to entering the NBA. Darko has never had the opportunity to play in a system that mostly resembles the international game, which is where the Darko hype began.

The Grizzlies new style will be built around having interchangeable parts at all five positions. Darko fits well in this system. I believe this is the last chance for him to perform well in NBA, a bad season and Darko will no longer be part of any nba team roster.

What can Memphis do in this season? Reach the playoffs?

It’s possible, but they will need to perform well quickly and the players will have to understand Ivaroni’s philosophy. Being part of southwest division is not easy, 12 games against Dallas, Spurs and Rockets will be a tough task for the team. Expect only to go over and over when Memphis faces teams with the same philosophy as theirs.

**andre gomes** · 10-23-07, 02:09 PM

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

If we look for teams with losing records in 2006-2007, wihout a doubt the Hornets are the team that didn’t make big moves to change or improve the roster. Their structure is basically the same.

Analyzing last season, the reason for that is quite simple: the Hornets simply didn’t exist in 2006/2007! Their big 5 last season only played together 7 games, a miserable number (4-3 record) and the team still could have managed a possible spot in the playoffs (39-43 record).

Byron Scott is a good coach, no doubt! Those two seasons in New York Nets 2001-02 and 2002-03 proved himself as a top coach. After a 26-56 in 2000 Byron led the Nets not only to a very positive records but also a two NBA finals trips.

2001-02 52W 30L
2002-03 49W 33L

This will be his 4th season in New Orleans and Byron is improving the team year after year, as their winning margin is increasing every year in his Hornets adventure. Last season we saw too many problems: consistent injuries and even a home to play! Analyzing what the Hornets can do this season is simple and easy. If the Big 5 play at their maximum level, reaching playoffs won’t be a tough task for them.

Chris Paul is the general and the brain of this Hornets! I expect he continues developing and reaching this season into a All Star level. He started 2006-07 in a superb style averaging 19.2 points, 9.4 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game in December before a stress fracture in his foot knocked him out of the lineup for the whole month of January.

Did your saw those numbers? They aren’t numbers of an All Star, those numbers are from a MVP contender! Paul’s comeback after that injury wasn’t the same although his numbers remained relatively solid. A great season will bring CP3 to the elite.

Tyson Chandler, was until last season a typical overrated player: great psychical skills but with no brain (no offense) and his typical silly fouls in the attack or unnecessary defense fouls was unfortunately for him his visit card. Chicago traded him based on those facts, but Chandler has grown up fast last season!

He averaged 16.1 rebounds per game in February and upped his scoring average from 8.0 to 12.7 after the All-Star break. This amazing improvement made Tyson one of three legitimate big men on the USA team roster in Las Vegas.

Chandler’s ability to grab rebounds will be crucial for the Hornets! If he is able to reach 12/13 rebounds per game, Chris Paul and all his mates will know that Tyson will provide them many second chances.

Chandler is well complemented with Forward David West. He is entering his fifth campaign at age 27 (usually it’s when NBA players have their primes) and made a good season last year with averaging numbers of 18.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game while shooting 48% from the field and 82% from the line. Don’t forget West 2 years ago competed with Boris for most improved men in the league.

It’s sounds bizarre for the Hornets, but when he had the best numbers last season, a strained right forearm knocked him down for 30 games and stopped him from contending for an All-Star berth, as those numbers deserved a chance at least.

And what about Peja Stojakovic? 13 games last season are almost a joke. Another story to tell for the Hornets: Peja before picked that injury (he needed a back surgery) was averaging 17.8 points per game and shooting 40.5% from the three-point range. If Peja stays fit this season, he will benefit of Chris Paul’s prime time and grab open looks for his well famous ability to shoot 3pt.

Hornets made only one major sign, a guy who can compete for a spot in the starting lineup: Morris Peterson from Toronto. In my opinion he should take advantage of a hole at the shooting guard position that Rasual Butler only adequately filled last year. Peterson’s sign show us that Byron Scott wants to increase the rhythm in offense and offer to Paul valid options in the wings.

After analyzing the probable starting lineup the preview is clear: if these guys stay healthy, Hornets will make some damage. The only concern comes from the bench. It might be a hard task for Scott to offer more than 20 minutes to any reserve guy.

The positive factor of the numerous injuries last season is no doubt the minutes that guys like Devin Brown, Jannero Pargo or Rasual Butler had. The fact is that 9 players had more than 20 min/game last season, and 7 of them managed to had more than 10 points per game. Hope that situation can help these guys in developing quickly.

This season can be Chris Paul’s Prime time in NBA, and the Hornets carried by him can reach a playoff spot without many problems

**andre gomes** · 10-23-07, 02:10 PM

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Another NBA season to come and once again Dallas is coming with high expectations, especially Mark Cuban!

Last season was a tremendous blowout. Dallas unluckily had the worst possible matchup in the first round, as they had to face the Warriors. Dirk couldn’t found a way to get rid of his versatile opponents (Don Nelson knows too well Dirk) and Dallas said goodbye too early to the championship.

I don’t have any doubt (at least is my opinion) that Dallas would have grabbed the ring if Warriors disaster didn’t happen. The team was so well prepared to face the Spurs that Dallas forgot to prepare to a so specific matchup.

What Avery Johnson can do this season?! Dallas can get even better?

Little general Avery has a hard job to do! Motivate guys who aren’t prepared to lose, that are the tough job.

The roster for this season is basically the same, only minor players like Austin Croshere or Greg Buckner left Dallas. Both were replaced by Trenton Hassell and Eddie Jones. Those guys won’t make a big difference, maybe a good strike in a couple of games but the structure of Dallas depends of 4 players.

What player can make the big difference this season for Mavericks? Dirk, Terry, Howard? None of them! It might sound a little bit strange, but Devin Harris is that guy! Harris signed a lucrative five-year extension a couple weeks ago, with a $42-million-dollar contract.

Harris has already showed us a solid defense and an amazing blow-by speed, but those 2 great facts aren’t enough! His jump shot needs a lot of work. Harris is depending right now too much of his blowout speed penetrations.

Avery Johnson can think of launching even Harris and Terry in the starting lineup, it’s a possible scenario, but Harris also needs to improve his team ball notion. Harris averaged 3.7 apg last season. For an elite team point guard those numbers aren’t famous.

A Devin Harris doing 6 apg and a better jump shot will be worth his $42 million contract and can provide the team the boost they need.

Jason Terry will make his numbers! In his career he never had lower than 41.5% in FG – his first season in NBA! He can do better in passing the ball, but Hey! He’s a shooter, we can’t expect a playmaker role for him in every game.

Josh Howard’s last season improvement was a remarkable factor for Dallas, as his jump shot technique is great now and maybe Dirk can teach him something useful. His 18.9 ppg, 6.8 rbp and 1.2 spg are from a NBA all Star and Howard proved he deserves this status.

He will be used sometimes in the PF position, sending Dirk to 5 when Dallas faces small frontcourt guys. Howard is a smart guy who can easily adapt to new situations.

Jerry Stackhouse will be as usual the 6th man of the team. He can easily get 15/20 points in a good night and Dallas will badly need him sometimes to change a game.

For center position, Dallas started this campaign with a problem: Erick Dampier had a shoulder surgery, which put him off until the end of June, and thus won’t be at 100% when the season starts, so right now Diop is in number one spot to fill this position.

Diop is a defensive player, a valuable player to a tough matchup against any good forward, look the final minutes of him against Spurs in game 7 two years ago, but he can’t create his own chances. Maybe Dallas need a guy to complete the roster in this position, some rumors appoint Chris Webber to do this job, but the fact is that Dallas need one more guy.

And finally, the reigning MVP Dirk Nowitzki. I heard a lot of things last season saying he can’t resolve a game; his hand shakes when a clutch play is coming. Come on!? Did you saw Dirk’s decision against Spurs 2 years ago (Basket and fault sending the game for overtime)?

Did you really saw the last quarters where he simply made day by day the good choices?

Dirk this season will make a great season again, his incredible range of shooting made him one of the guys in the league almost impossible to stop and this season it won’t be different.

I think Dallas won’t do better this season, as they have learned a lesson that they don’t need to fight until the end of the season to have the best possible record. Just see that the Spurs won their last 2 championships without being the best team in Western conference.

**andre gomes** · 10-23-07, 02:11 PM

I will upload later the remaining previews

**andre gomes** · 10-27-07, 05:29 AM

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Warriors and Don Nelson had last season a Cinderella play-off run to remember, knocking down the 1st seed Dallas Mavericks.

The most relevant fact is that the Warriors didn’t use any magic potion to get good results! They just had J Rich and Baron Davis fit at the same time and both guys combined with the new roster after the Warriors – Pacers trade had a big role in the great late run into the playoffs, as Golden State went 16-5 in the last 21 games.

For this season, Don Nelson after demanding the Warriors more money in his pocket, signed a new contract that will of course keep the same system: a powerful run and gun style.

The multiple rotations in frontcourt positions that Don Nelson loves so much had against Utah the predictable result: a 4-1 loss in the series.

That series was dominated by Utah frontcourt ability to out rebound the Warriors, as Utah averaged more 19.6 rebounds per game than the Warriors in this matchup! It’s impossible to any team to win a series with so huge handicap.

In the regular season this year, the Warriors will face the same problems where they will have to face teams with a powerful frontcourt. Don Nelson will continue to send Matt Barnes and Stephen Jackson to the power forward position, as they will give the Warriors a boost in speed and agility in the attack, but the “rebound handicap” will also go through.

Warriors added two big men rookies in the roster, and one of them can grab quality minutes. Stephane Lasme is a guy who almost has only defense in their focus. Nelson has said that Lasme “can guard anyone”. That defensive presence could really help a Warrior squad while facing a dominant player like Boozer.

And what about J Rich’s departure for the Bobcats? Can Warriors manage to solve this problem?

Some experts said that the Most Improved man last season Monta Ellis will be ready for Jason’s place. But come on, it’s unrealistic! Well, it’s possible but Nellie is a smart coach and if Warriors has innumerous problems being constantly out rebounded every game what could happen if they send a 6’3 player to the shooting guard position?

Nelson has already said that he felt Ellis is too small to play as a SG despite his scoring ability and track history, so I expect Ellis’s role to be Baron Davis’ primary backup at the point guard position.

This scenario would bring Italian Marco Belinelli to the initial lineup, and Nelson has said that Belinelli is ready to go.

Belinelli may not be asked to do much more than spot up from beyond the arc and stroke threes because Baron Davis and S. Jackson will assume that role. If you don’t know this player, just watch the summer league highlights.

Bellineli averaged 22.8 ppg with 44.4% in threes; in the first game he reached 37 points in a stellar and amazing 14-20 FG.

Baron Davis is the franchise player here, and the main question is to know if he can able to be fit all season. In my opinion it’s very hard for him, as Davis is a powerful athletic who depends too much of his explosiveness, and playing 82 games with the same energy is impossible! That’s why Nellie wants Monta Ellis to be a consistent backup of Davis.

Stephen Jackson won’t play the first 7 games due to a suspension and he will need a couple of weeks to reach his optimal condition.

Warriors’ bench may need one or more quality players. Matt Barnes is a great value, as he plays many positions and provides a great spirit, stealing balls, rebounding well and lately also putting some 3’s. He’s an indispensable all around guy that any team needs.

Austin Croshere can be also a solid backup sign. Croshere’s ability from shooting outside will be useful to the Warriors’ run and gun system as he can also fight to get some rebounds.

Andris Biedrins and Michael Pietrus will need to work and show some signs of improvement. Biedrins’ had his participation in the team being decreased in the last part of the season, after Don Nelson changed the rotation, so it’s very important for him to show something to make Nelson to trust him again.

Predict the Warriors this season depends of Don Nelson’s ability to make quality rotations to avoid that guys like Baron Davis get some injury lay-offs. A Run and gun system badly needs fast and healthy players and the Warriors need to have all players fit to grab a possible Cinderella’s spot again.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:29 PM

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Reggie Theus will begin his first year as the 21st Head Coach of the Sacramento Kings on their Franchise history.

Theus will be a future top coach in the league, I don’t have any doubt about this, as he compiled a 41-23 record on his two years with New Mexico State in the NCCA tournament, guiding the Aggies to a tie for the fifth-best turnaround in all of Division I basketball and the best single-season improvement of any NMSU squad since the 1985-86 season.

He turned around a program that went 6-24 the year before he arrived (2004-05), and he leaded the team to a 16-14 record, including wins over the rival New Mexico and NCAA Tournament participants Pacific and Utah State. Theus’ Aggies then improved to a 25-9 last season, winning the Western Athletic Conference Tournament.

Brad Miller was just 9.0 ppg last season and he didn’t have such low numbers (under double digits) since the 2000-01 season. An average of 5.1 rpg isn’t good enough for a center and the Kings needs a good rebounder badly right now.

They signed Mikki Moore to improve the frontcourt positions. Moore is coming from his best career season and his energy will be contagious to the team.

Unfortunately for the Kings Fans, Brad Miller isn’t the only player in the wrong side of his career. Sharref Abdul-Rahim is another big example. For the first time in his career, Rahim had under double digits points per game, averaging 9.9 ppg, I’m talking about a guy that has an average of 18.2 ppg on his career.

To complete the role of frontcourt guys, what about Kenny Thomas? Well, just to remember that he’s coming from the weakest season of his career averaging just 5.3 ppg last season, almost half of his career average.

With such negative information for this particular position, it’s impossible for Theus to make a positive season (Hitting over 50% W/L). I mean it could be possible if the Kings had an unselfish playmaker, right now I am remembering Steve Nash’s impact for the Suns.

For the Kings, no way it will happen! They have an erratic Mike Bibby and he is told the media his desire to be traded and his future is not certain yet. Only with an awesome Bibby, the Kings could fight for one of the last spots in the playoffs picture.

More than a player who makes 15/20 points per game, the Kings need a guy who can systematic make 6/7 assists per game and Bibby can’t provide such numbers, as he has an average of 5.1 apg in the last 2 seasons.

I can’t mention Sacramento Kings without naming Ron Artest, as he’s the X factor for the Kings this season. Artest’s fighting spirit and his ability to make any task is amazing. Ok! But there’s a big problem: he needs to focus on basketball! But if his head is clear, watch out! He can make some impact. He’s such a versatile player. Last season Artest was the best rebounder, it’s amazing since Artest is a typical SF player. In a team that lacks a clean up in the defense, he can help a lot in the organization.

I left the star to the end. I’m talking about Kevin Martin. He has an amazing jump shot skill and if we look to his improvement season after season, you will notice that. 2004 – 2.9, 2005 – 10.8 and 2006 – 20.2. He improved 9.6 points per game last season! In this season he can easily reach the 25 points per game mark, but I expect other things for him, especially because Sacramento’s opponents will start putting two players to prevent him to play his best. He had 2.2 apg last season and I expect a boost in his numbers this season, reaching at least 3/4 apg.

Bibby, Martin, Artest, Rahim and Miller will be the strong structure of the team this season, and the Kings really don’t have a good support for those players (Moore is the guy that can make a strong role). I can’t see the Kings going to the playoffs this season, in fact it’s hard to believe they can reach 30 wins in such a tough conference.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:29 PM

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Can a blowout injury from a superstar affect all the team hopes for a good season?

That’s the actual situation that Clippers will be facing in the upcoming season because of Elton Brand’s injury. Brand isn’t expected to play at least until 2008 and this could blow the chances of a positive season, as there are so many powerful power forwards in the Western Conference that Elton Brand absence should be too much for the Clippers.

The Clippers last season with a healthy Elton Brand averaged 41.1 rebounds per game, compared with 39.3 for their opponents, with makes a good differential of +1.9 rebounds per game. Without Brand, Clippers will face a new big problem that isn’t easy to solve.

They signed Ruben Patterson who comes from a positive season averaging 14.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.9 apg and 1.36 steals per game and his well balanced game will help the Clippers to minimize Brand’s absence but he can’t replace him for sure.

It sounds a little strange but this organization will depend of a 38 year old Sam Cassell!

The Clippers tried to cut back on Cassell’s role by giving the starter’s job to Shaun Livingston last season until the youngster wrecked his knee in an awful fashion. Despite Livingston’s absence, Cassell will be hard pressed to play more than 25 minutes per game. I have a lot of doubts about Cassell’s ability to stay fit and get prepared to lead the team. Last season he played 58 games averaging only 24.3 minutes per game and these numbers are from a guy who jumped off the bench and made some good runs, but not for a leader.

Brevin Knight will likely split time with Cassell and when he gets some reasonable numbers he can perform well and help his team mates with his passing skills.

Unfortunately for the Clippers, the current roster contains more than a few questionable effort/attitude guys like Chris Kaman, Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley.

The veteran shooting guard has not responded well in reaching the level of the 30 years old. Mobley’s point totals have fallen off in four seasons in a row and despite having played heavy minutes, his numbers dropped from 17.8, 17.2, 14.8 and for 13.8 points per game last season, but his average minutes didn’t drop, so it’s easy to predict that Cuttino will need to bounce back to reach the form he had 5 seasons ago. Cuttino seems to have lost range, as he has strangely cut way back on three points attempts even though he still shoots a high percentage from downtown. Last season he shot almost minus 100 attempts that he used to shoot.

The rest of the group “questionable effort/attitude guys” Chris Kaman and Tim Thomas will have to make a solid step if they want be part of this organization.

Thomas (11.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 38.2% 3PT) and Kaman (10.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.55 bpg) sleepwalked through the season after promising playoff runs in 2006 that yielded new contracts for both. They have all the conditions to make a better season in 2007/08, especially Thomas who has the versatility to play at the PF position that can be well handled by Dunleavy.

Maggette may be the closest thing that Clippers will have in consistence this season, as last season in 75 games, he had a 16.9-point, 5.9-rebound campaign while shooting 45% from the field and 82% from the free throw line. Without Brand Maggette will be more influent in the offensive labor for sure.

The top pick draft by the Clippers is Al Thornton. He possibly could have developed more than Clippers staff expected, but without Elton Brand his numbers will increase more than he expects. Thornton averaged 19.7 points and 7.2 rebounds per game as a senior while shooting 53% from the field, 79% from the line, and 44.4% on threes. His high turnover rate should be a cause for concern, as he averaged 2.5 giveaways compared to 0.7 assists and he clearly needs to improve these numbers.

The one thing that I know about these Clippers is that they will lose many games and reaching the playoffs would need to be considered a miracle, as they would need a Sam Cassell with an extraordinary physical condition that he doesn’t have anymore.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:30 PM

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

At the time I’m writing this article, I don’t know where Kobe is going to play this season, as the novel hasn’t stop yet and daily we see rumors that Kobe is gone. The only thing I’m sure is that Kobe is one of the Top 3 players in the league, I know and everybody who watch the games knows that also.

Even with this, Kobe doesn’t seem too anger or unfocused, as in last pre season game against Seattle he just played 18 minutes, but scored 20 points, 4 assists and 5 rebounds, including 16 points in the third quarter. I believe Kobe will stay at LA but the paradox of this team is that the Lakers depend more of the supporting cast than Kobe himself.

First of all, Lakers made a smart move adding Derek Fisher to the roster. He maybe won’t get much more than thirty minutes per game, but he will be a good source of threes and his presence should lead to a few more assists for Kobe.

Everybody knows that Bryant will be double/tripled our even quintuple-teamed and in those situations Fisher’s ability to knock them down threes will good for the team.

Lakers got rid of Smush Parker in a good move for them, as Parker with the Lakers uniform couldn’t develop in the right way. He has career numbers of 2.9 apg and 1.84 turnovers per game, how the hell this player can be a starter? No way.

The problematic position for the Lakers is the big man center. Phil Jackson insists in Andrew Bynum and he has potential to be the next center that the team needs for the next 10 years, but this is just too soon and Bynum needs time and space with no pressure for him to develop in the right way.

Luckily for the Lakers, Chris Mihm is back and he can help the team in such a depleted area. He almost will over pass Kwame Brown, who sooner or later won’t be part of this organization.

Lamar Odom hasn’t yet achieved his full potential, I think his potential seems to be fading away and Odom won’t ever be a superstar. The main question is to know if he can just be a quality player who stays healthy. Last season he had some injuries that almost blow the team chances from grabbing a playoff spot.

If Odom can stay health and play 80 games with his regular numbers (15 ppg and 9 rpg), he will help the team a lot.

Luke Walton and Brian Cook are going to the fifth season with the Lakers and both have good relative numbers but they can do better. Walton last season was more involved in the team, with almost more 2 rpg and 2 apg than his career numbers.

Finally the European crew will help in the rotations, as Vujacic, Radmanovic and especially Turiaf can turn Lakers into a deeper team. Radmanovic must have a good season after the last season scandal and Turiaf who masters Zen has already said that maybe he could be part in the starting lineup, as he could offer aggressiveness in the frontcourt.

I won’t assume the risk by telling that the Lakers won’t qualify to the postseason, as with Kobe and Phil Jackson in any team they can perform pretty well, but it won’t be easy. The Lakers will be in that kind of situation of needing to fight in the last days for a spot in the playoffs.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:31 PM

PHOENIX SUNS

Another season to come and the Suns will try to finally claim the Championship again and at least the title of the most exciting team no team can knock them down as long as Steve Nash stays healthy.

Nash is the truly star in the league, not also performing great numbers but mainly helping his team mates to get the best of them.

Just analyze Nash’s numbers in Phoenix: in three seasons he shoot always over 50%, how many Point Guards would love finish one season with such numbers? He averaged 11.2 assists per game and 17.6 points per game in his amazing journey in Arizona.

But we must don’t forget that Nash has the sweet age of 34 and D’Antoni must preserve him for the postseason.

In the last 3 seasons D’Antoni committed the sin of not preserving Nash. Just look that his backup Marcus Banks only averaged 11.2 minutes per game last season. With the draft pick D. Strawberry maybe D’Antoni will understand that the Suns will need a fresh Steve Nash in April and will give more time to rest.

The famous system run and gun designed for the suns needs top athletes, and the Suns last season averaged 95.6 possessions per game and leaded the league in points per 100 possessions, averaging 113.9. These numbers illustrate how much efficient Phoenix is playing run and gun.

The biggest move for Phoenix in the off season was Grant Hill. His versatility will get him some spot minutes at the back-up PG, SG, SF and even PF position, and this kind of position flexibility only makes him more valuable.

Hill is certainly a good bet if he quickly adapts to the run-and-gun style of Mike D’Antoni because Grant is a world class passer for a forward and he will get a lot more opportunities to run the floor and make plays than he did in Orlando.

And what about Shawn Marion? The major concern about the Matrix isn’t how he will play, but where. In Phoenix, Marion is assured to put up big numbers in every category.

It sounds strange, but Marion is the player who better adapts in Steve Nash’s playbook. Marion is probably the quickest frontcourt guy in the league and this quickness in service of a run and gun team is perfect.

The X factor for Suns this season is once again Amare Stoudemire’s knees. In normal conditions Amare has the ability to lead the league in field goal percentage while averaging 25 points and 10 rebounds per game and not needing too many minutes to do them.

The supporting cast that Phoenix has is capable of making a big damage. Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell and Boris Diaw are a trio that can help the other superstar trio to get good numbers.

Barbosa’s speed is always a problematic matchup for any opponent, but D’Antoni can’t make him a point guard, as he’s a typical scorer, not a PG.

Raja Bell needs to increase his assists per game, as he always help the team with his aggressiveness and he is dangerous when he’s left wide open.

Boris Diaw needs to bounce back after a disappointing last season, with the departure of Kurt Thomas, Diaw will have more opportunities to play in the interior positions where he feels comfortably and he can use his passing abilities to make damage against lower pos.

Some reports are saying that Diaw is trying to slim back down to his playing weight. In pre season he’s playing more than the usual and don’t forget he also played in the summer FIBA Eurobasket championship.

Can Phoenix grab finally a ring? It’s possible but it will depend of the postseason matchups and Steve Nash’s and Amare Stoudemire’s health.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:31 PM

CHICAGO BULLS

After they have won for the first time a playoff series after the Jordan Era, the Bulls will be fighting this season for something more. The conference final seems to be their minimal objective. The roster for this season is extremely complete, but maybe because of that, they can’t find a leader for the team. Neither Wallace,Gordan, Hinrich or Deng were able to assume himself as the leader of the team last season, the player who would be capable of carrying the Bulls to an even higher level of basketball.

Maybe for what Luol Deng did in the playoffs may put him in a position closer to have that statute, as he had 22.2 ppg, 8.7 rpg and the amazing 52.4% FG. His ascension has been excellent and he keeps upping his numbers with 4 more ppg in each season. If Deng continues with this tendency (numbers of 22.0 ppg and 8.0 rpg are already from an All-Star player), he may get even closer this season to be the leader of this team.

Scott Skiles is maybe the NBA coach that most uses rotations and last season only one played had more than 35 minutes per game (Luol Deng with 37.3). This season it won’t be different most likely.

The biggest move that the Bulls did this season was getting their draft pick Joakim Noah and PJ Brown leaving the team. It seems weird that Noah was hired, as he is very similar to Ben Wallace. Noah is a hustle/energy player. Much of what he does to help a team win does not show up in the boxscore the next day. Much of what he does to help the team to win doesn’t show up in the boxscore the next day. Even in the free throws he is like Wallace (66% in the three seasons in Florida). The chance that both Noah and Wallace will play at the same time isn’t likely, as the team’s offensive game in the interior area would be close to zero. But actually the fact of the two playing together could be useful for Skiles as that would allow the Bulls to attack with three backcourt players and that would drive their opponent’s defense nuts.

Hinrich will be commanding the team again. He’ll be on the floor every night, to drop in 16-17 points, hand out 6-7 assists, and net a couple of 3’s, or so, making over 40% of those. His percentage are increasing every year (4 seasons in a row). From 38.6 in 2003/04 to 44.8 in 2006/07. But Hinrich needs to get better in the clutch situations and when that happens, he will be finally an elite player.

Ben Wallace is still an elite player, but he needs to do better in what he is capable of doing best: rebounds. Big Ben is all about rebounds, steals, and blocks. He is still exceptional in those three categories. He is otherwise a miserable shooter, and that hurts him in all scoring categories. In the first season playing for the Bulls, he didn’t show that he was worth the millionaire contract that he has. For the first time in six seasons Wallace had less than 12 rpg and in the playoffs these numbers even lowered to below than 10 rpg. I remember that in 2001/02 and 2002/03 Wallace had more than 16rpg in the postseason games.

What can turn the Bulls into a more offensive team this season is the evolution of Ben Gordon. He has raised his numbers in almost all categories: points, assists, rebounds, FG%. 3P% and FT%. Also he has raised his number of turnovers per game from 2.25 to 3.04. But there’s nothing that worries Skiles as Gordon’s evolution is imminent. In fact the only thing that worries Skiles is that Gordan is a bad defender and he has a lot of problems against bigger and stronger opponents. Skiles will need to find a solution for this handicap, as for example a Gordan vs Hamilton match-up on a playoff series would be dramatic for the Bulls.

The X factor for the Bulls this season will be Nocioni. He managed to put up some pretty solid numbers last season (14.1 points, 5.7 boards, 1.5 three-balls and good percentages). He claims that his foot is feeling much better, which is encouraging. He’s a great all around player as he is a SF who adapts very well to the PF position. When the Bulls face run and gun teams, his ability to shoot 3 points will put on a restrict group of players that are capable of scoring in any kind of position in the field. Nocioni coming from the bench will be a very important offensive weapon for the Bulls.

Tyrus Thomas and Sefolosha will be continuing the work they have done last season, but Thomas is the one that Skiles will be more exigent with. Just 13.4 min per game and 5.2 ppg is short and Thomas will need to work a lot since he will have a lot of contenders for his position in the field.

The Bulls will be entering the season with a bigger ambition, but they will need to get better in the decisive moments of the game, to a level of the Spurs or Detroit. It gives the sensation that they only won a playoff series will they are playing really well, as they have a lot of problems in winning a close series. But if they can do it, they are good enough to final for the conference final.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:31 PM

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

The Bucks are the most underrated team in this season, as the bookies for example are only offering a line of 35 wins in their total wins in the regular season of 2007/08.

Even before the season started, and as the season progressed, injured set in and continued to mount. Redd missed 29 games, Villanueva 43, Williams 14, Bogut 16, Gadzuric 29, and Simmons missed the entire season. This may be the main problems for the Bucks this season.

The other key position battle of interest will take place between Bobby Simmons and Desmond Mason. Simmons, making his return after losing the entire 2006-07 season to injury, averaged 13.4 points and 4.4 rebounds in the 2005-06 season, his first in Milwaukee. It is expected that Simmons evolutes well, but the major doubt is that he will be at 100% physically.

Is this number (35 wins) fair according to the potential of the Bucks? I don’t think so. Milwaukee last season had the horrible record of 28-54, but in the middle of the season GM Larry Harris changed the coach of the team, replacing Terry Porter with Terry Scotts, then opting for Larry Krystkowiak midway through last season.

Mason had the best season of his career with Milwaukee (a career-high of 17.2 ppg and 2.7 apg) in 2004-05 and now returns to jump start his career again. His numbers in New Orleans decreased but it’s curious that his %FG was good (45.2%). Coming back to an organization that he knows may be good for him.

The Bucks have some good solutions at the point guard position. Starter Mo Williams signed a $55 million contract and Bell will likely be a replacement for both guards (Williams and All-Star Michael Reed - coming off an injury-shortened season).

Both Williams and Bell were linked to Miami in the off season, but the Bucks decided it was time to offer some more money on the table and both ended up staying on the team.

Last year, Williams averaged a surprising 17.3 ppg, 4.8 rpg and 6.1 apg. His evolution have been great and he’s getting better in almost all categories and if he is capable of keeping himself in good shape, it will be a great sign for the Bucks, who need a player able to lead the team in the offensive game.

The million dollar question for the Bucks is once again related with physical conditions: Will Redd be able to step in and get right back to his All-Star form?

When it comes to scoring prowess and 3-pt shooting, Michael Redd is an elite player He is the man in Milwaukee and one of the youngest emerging stars in the NBA. Redd is also a fine free thrower shooter (over 85% in his career). In good shape for whole season, he is the kind of player to do more than 25 ppg and if that happens, the Bucks will have a chance to reach the playoffs.

Finally, Andrew Bogut should also improve and raise his credible 12.3 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.0 apg of last season. He also shot 55.3% from the field. Probably Bogut’s development has been slower than hoped, but Bogut has a lot of potential and they are very few centers in the league capable of doing 3-4 apg. Bogut has to get better in terms of aggressiveness, as a matchup with a player like Amare Stoudemire penalizes himself and the team a lot right now.

Milwaukee are great for ATS record for the simple fact their potential is way higher than the value most people give to them (kind of Toronto Raptors last season). If all players stay healthy, then they can be a playoff contender.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:32 PM

INDIANA PACERS

The supporters from Indiana must be the unhappiest supporters in the league right now. After the team was capable of going 61-21 in 2003/04, a set of factors have destroyed the team. Last season was just the second time in 18 years that the team couldn’t make it to the playoffs. If that wasn’t enough, Indiana’s supporters have watched the amazing run of their former players in Golden State. If in theory that trade brought more advantages of the Pacers, as they got more versatile players than the ones that went to the Warriors, the fact is that the problem wasn’t the players. The problem was the whole organization. Even Larry Bird took blame for such a bad season.

For this season, the roster is pretty much the same. After the post-trade Indiana went 15-29, including a dismal 6-23 after Feb. 21, when they sat five games above .500. It wasn’t supposed to change everything again? Larry Bird doesn’t think so and at least he has the benefit of the doubt. The objective of that trade with the Warriors was to make the Pacers a faster team, with a higher rhythm of play and that didn’t seem difficult with players like Mike Dunleavy or Troy Murphym. But the main problem was that the ex-coach Rick Carlisle never was and never will be the ideal coach for this type of tactic. Carlisle had 55% of wins with the Pacers, but always with the team playing with an static offensive and an half court defense. With Jim O’Brien, the Pacers have finally a coach capable of putting the team playing on an aggressive and faster way. That’s what he said: “I think our team this past year was too predictable on offense. They did not create the type of tempo that was necessary to get a few cheap baskets every game. In the NBA, if you always allow the defense to set up, then your weaknesses will be exposed over the course of 82 games.”

The team has only 2 players still from the era of the 61 wins; Jermaine O’Neal and Jamal Tinsley. O’Neal has been tortured with injuries. The fact that in the last 3 seasons, he has missed 82 games clearly shows that. Last season was horrible for him. He had less 6ppg that he used to do with the Pacers. And even in rebounds and block, his numbers’ downfall was clear. O’Neal in good conditions is a player to do 20ppg, 10rpg and 2,5 bpg. The few chances of a positive season of the Pacers would pass for a super O’Neal. He needs to get better in almost all categories.

Talk about Jamal Tinsley is just like talk about O’Neal. He is injury prone, missing a combined 112 games from 2003-06. Last year, he appeared in 72 games, but his shooting percentage dropped to .389 and he was suspended a game in March for unspecified conduct detrimental to the team. He was never a consistent player and he has done a lot of turnovers and he won’t be the player more benefited with the new style of play. But he will need to get better a lot this season. Finding a replacement for Tinsley has proved to be a challenge. The Pacers gave up on Anthony Johnson, Sarunas Jasikevicius, Orien Greene and Eddie Gill over the past two years. And it looks they are yet to find that player. The options Marquis Daniels and Stephen Graham are far from being perfect for the position.

The Warriors’ ex-player especially Murphy and Dunleavy are capable of adapting well to the new style of play, as Don Nelson has taught them how to perform in this kind of tactic. Murphy with the Warriors two years ago averaged 14 points and 10 rebounds (2.6 offensive) in 34 minutes per game. Plus, he can be a solid source of 3’s, which is always an attractive attribute for a big guy as his extended shooting range for a big man is always a plus for a team like Indiana. Murphy last season has lowered his numbers in rebounds for 6.1. It’s strange for someone who had more than 10.0 rpg in 2004/05 and 2005/06 while playing in Golden State. If he is capable of coming back to their usual, that will be very useful for Indiana as he is player capable of doing a good number of double-doubles on a season.

On the other side, Mike Dunleavy had his best career numbers in the half season he has already played for Indiana, which has to be considered as an encouragement for his performance this season. Dunleavy had the best offensive success of his five-year career during the 43 games he played with the Pacers, averaging 14.0 points. Jim O’Brien will put him as a shooting guard and playing at that position, his value can increase, as he should look to the basket more from beyond the arc and he will be relied on for consistent scoring. But he will have problems in handling players shorter and faster than him.

The X factor of Indiana will be the evolution (or not) of Danny Granger. He was last season the only good new for the Pacers. He averaged 12.6 points in a sixth-man role early in the season, then jumped to 15.6 points as a starter following the Golden State trade. He will need to improve his jump shot in order to make it more effective, but he is capable of reaching the 15 ppg it will be already a good sign.

This team of Indiana won’t be able to reach the playoffs, as a miracle would need to happen for them to do it. It’s asking too much for a team with a new coach and a new style of play with players that had an horrible season. Maybe they will be capable of reaching the 35 wins, but nothing more than that.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:33 PM

DETROIT PISTONS

Whatever it happens, Detroit will always end up with a top spot in the conference at the end of the regular season. This team just needs to enter the 4th period with conditions to discuss the win and if that happens, then they have very good chances to do it. The reason is simple: this is a team 100% ready for clutch situations and they don’t depend from one player to decide the matches. Billups, Hamilton, Rasheed and even Prince are used to solve the games and that’s one of the major weapons Detroit has.

The Pistons have a big tendency to be horrible to cover spreads, as many matches are decided late in the game and then they don’t have enough time to cover the ATS. Don’t forget that they went 0-6 ATS in their playoff series against the Cavaliers. But although they are terrible as favorites to cover the spreads, they went 15-7 ATS last season as away dogs. The same can’t be said about being home favorites, as they went just 15-29 ATS.

The main difference of the team in comparison to last season is in the front court positions. Webber left and McDyess looks ready to be a starter again. If he’s capable of playing +25 minutes per night, he is for sure a good option for Detroit. He can score low double figure points, pull down 7-8 rebounds, and add some blocks to his line too. Nazr Mohammed is injured right now and McDyess will take advantage of that to get a starting position on the squad. To compete with McDyess for this positing there are also Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Maxiell should play more minutes this season and he comes from 14.1 minutes per game and 5.0ppg. His energy compensates his lack of height (just 6′7). The other starter in an interior position will be Rasheed Wallace. And the only major problem he has is really the ejections and suspensions and also the foul trouble keeping him on the bench for long stretches. He clearly underperformed against the Cavs in the playoffs and a Wallace at his best would have given a way better chance to his team to reach the NBA final. In postseason he had 4.0 fouls per game, something intolerable for someone with the caliber of Wallace. If he is capable of keeping concentrated in the matches, that would bring a huge advantage for the Pistons, as he is a center who can knock down 3’s, do block shots and steal the ball.

To complete the starting squad, I’ve to talk about three players that play together for hundreds of games already: Billups, Hamilton and Prince. Billups is the leader of the Pistons. He is the typical player that plays better on the second half of the matches, because he is capable of analyze the match very well and he changes his style of play at half time if necessary. His objective will be to comeback to the number that he had in 2005/06, when he had 18.5ppg, 8.5 apg and 2.3 3’s per game.

Hamilton will be the scorer of the team again. He will score around 20 points every night and he has been used on an exhaustive way in the last seasons and the fact that he is remarkably consistent and rarely misses games. Since 2002-03 that Hamilton has an average of 38.3 min per game in playoff matches.

Prince will need to recover from the conference finals last season, where Lebron James humiliated him. But only very few players can stop Lebron in the league and definitely Prince is not one of them. But besides this, Prince is a key player on the team. He will be there every night, as he has for the last four years straight, contributing with 14 points, 5 rebounds, a three, a steal and a turnover each time out.

These three players are the ones who will define the record of the team in the regular season, but the most important will be to have them at 100% in the playoffs. For that Saunders will need to have a bigger rotation in the team, something that hasn’t done in the past since he started coaching Detroit. The fact is that the roster doesn’t help him neither. Only Murray seems to be a solid backup player, being capable to contribute with double digits points. Hunter, Mohammed and Hayes will be useful in the defensive game, as they can give more aggressiveness to the team.

It won’t be hard for them to get more than 50 wins in the regular season. But the need of being first in the conference will be higher this season and the competition will be bigger on the eastern conference in 2007/08. Expect Detroit to have more wins than ATS covers for sure.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:33 PM

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

After that amazing run that was only stopped by the Spurs, who were way superiors in the NBA final, Cleveland has basically done nothing in the off season. No draft picks and just a very late offseason free agent signing - guard Devin Brown. They simply expect that the actual roster to be capable of beating the whole east conference again. Can they do it again? It will be harder as the conference will be more competitive in 2007/08. If the Cavs get back to the NBA Finals this season, it will be without the help of any rookie talent.

After his coming out party in the playoffs, Boobie Gibson is the consensus favorite for the starting point guard position. Of course he will play more minutes than in 2006/07 in the regular season. In the playoffs, Gibson showed he can score – 79 points in one 4-game stretch – including 31 versus the Pistons in a memorable series-ending, game 6 Cavs victory. He has also showed that he can bury the 3 in his post-season run, making nearly two per game as a starter. But for a point guard, he will need to raise his numbers in terms of assists. For the point guard job reliable veteran Eric Snow will back him up and provide stability should Gibson suffer a “sophomore slump”. Larry Hughes, Damon Jones and Shannon Brown will get some spot minutes at the ‘1′ position as well.

Larry Hughes is an overrated player in Cleveland. The number of minutes he plays should give Hughes the conditions for him to do better numbers than he does. Last season he played 37.1 min per game and only made 14.9ppg and 3.7apg. Also Hughes was just 67.6% from the free throw line. Against the Spurs, Hughes barely played thanks to an injury e if the Cavs want to do another good regular season, they will need Hughes to play his best and do better than his last season’s numbers.

The major concern for the Cavs is right now Varejao and Pavlovic. They didn’t sign any celebrated free agent stars. They seemed happy enough with their own key players. There has been no major push to steal either Varejao or Pavlovic from Cleveland, even after both enjoyed career years. Yet they remain unsigned and unseen around the Cleveland camp, and despite last season’s happy run, there really should be no surprise. The most natural is that they will stay with the Cavs and I’ll base my analysis on that.

The Brazilian Varejao was a key piece in the Cavaliers’ success last season. He will probably have the possibility of approaching 30 minutes per set night, which could move him to double double marks. He would again provide the primary relief at power forward and center, especially to center Zydrunas Ilgauskas who has seen his minutes decline the last three years (from 33 to 29 to 27) and this trend is likely to continue this season.

Mr Z’s numbers last year were 11.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks. Solid numbers, but far from what he was capable to do a couple of seasons ago. The combo between Varejao and Z works pretty well because they are players with very different characteristics.

Drew Gooden will be once again the main player at the power forward position, with Donyell Marshall bringing his three-point shooting from the bench. Gooden is having very interesting numbers in terms of rebounds. 8.7 rpg em his 3 seasons in Cleveland. But with the potential he has, Gooden should be able to raise his number of points per game. He was never capable of reaching 15ppg and it will be hard to see him ever reaching this mark. His FG% is good, but Gooden is a very accommodated player in the attack, as he never creates his own opportunities.

If Pavlovic stays in Cleveland, he can be the secret weapon that the Cavs need to change the tendency of some games. In the case he leaves the team, the Cavs signed an ex-Hornets player Devin Brown that had a good season in 2006/07. He was solid last year, averaging 29 minutes, 11.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 3’s and 0.8 steals per game.

I left the best to the end: Lebron James. There isn’t a lot of things to say about him. 26.7 ppg, 6.4rpg and 6.4apg are enough to explain the statute that he has. But curiously, he hasn’t showed statistical improvement over the last three seasons. He had worse FG%, less rebounds and more turnovers, but what’s worrying are the free throws. Lebron had just 69.8% last season, something that is worrying for him and for the team. If Lebron doesn’t get better this season, his opponents will have an easy solution to stop him: faults.

The Cavaliers didn’t have any picks going into the 2007 NBA Draft. Due to their solid roster and unwillingness to pay a steep price in trades. If Pavlovic and Varejao stay, the roster will be very deep and complete. But the lack of new blood on the team may affect them. On a conference even more competitive, everybody will need to improve and reaching the mark of 50 wins on the regular season would be pretty good for them.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:34 PM

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS

Seattle is one of the teams with the most doubtful future in the league. Not only about their performance in this season, but also with the possibility of the franchising leaving Seattle in the near future. Until this doesn’t happen, the GM had the good decision of changing the whole team. After going 52-30 in 2004/05, Seattle was only capable of winning 66 of the 164 games they played in 2005/06 and 2006/07, so something needed to change. The permissive way that the team played is now history, as their new coach is PJ Carlesimo. For the past five seasons (2002-07), Carlesimo served as Gregg Popovich’s lead assistant with the San Antonio Spurs, winners of three of the last five NBA titles. So it won’t be strange to see Seattle defending and attacking with more rigor this season. The rotations of the squad are well defined just like Popovich does them and Seattle won’t be that team that scores and allows a lot of points anymore, as Carlesimo will slow down the tempo of the team. The Sonics will very likely become a team focused on defense, a team well-drilled and solid on fundamentals, and a team who will work hard every single night. Basically, the antithesis of last year’s team.

The point guard position is the position that will be the team’s major problem this season. Not because it lacks quality, but because of the opposite problem: too many quality players for the position. Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson and newcomer Delonte West (part of the Ray Allen trade with Wally Szczerbiak and the draft pick that became Jeff Green) will fight for the spot. If at least one of these three players is capable of adapting to start playing as a SG, it wouldn’t be a big problem anymore, but none of them have the necessary abilities to be a good SG. Ridnour was supposed to have become a star last year, but he lost confidence on his own game after a few bad outings and a strong play by Watson. Earl played in 77 games, leading the team in assists (5.7 per game) and steals (99). His 38.3% field goal shooting was a hindrance. His performance last season was better than Ridnour’s and he will have some advantage towards him in the beginning of this season. From Delonte West, we have one sure thing: he will not start - he isn’t a starting shooting guard in the NBA, can’t dish like Watson or Ridnour and excels in the third guard role as the first guy off the bench. But as West is the better defender of these three players, it won’t be surprising if at the middle of the season he starts having chances to become a starter, as his characteristics are good for the style of play that Carlesimo will implement in the team.

For the SG position, Seattle has two good options, that can become three in some situations, as Carlseimo wants to put Durant as a SG to make him run away from bad matchups in some games. The rookie Green and Szczerbiak are both capable and are likely to be the top choices. Green is a much better defender and distributor than Szczerbiak, but there is something to be said for having a dead-eye shooter on the wing with veteran experience. It’s likely Szczerbiak begins the season here. The lack of creative options in the attack (besides Durant) will make the veteran Wally a good option if he is playing well. On his short run in Boston, Wally was capable of doing a good 32-game campaign that saw him put up 15ppg and shoot 41,5% from the three-point line to go with 89,7% in free throw shooting.

Talk about Kevin Durant is talk about the pressure that even Lebron James couldn’t handle. Lebron on his first season couldn’t make the Cavs qualify for the playoffs and Durant won’t be capable of doing that neither for sure. Durant has potential to be the best player in the league in 4/5 years. Great shooting technique, amazing quality in the offensive game and good in clutch situations. He is the only one in here who can consistently create his own shot, create space, drive to the hoop and knock down open jumpers. It will be hard for Durant to carry the team, but potential is something that he doesn’t lack. His backup will be either Mickael Gelabale or Damien Wilkins. Gelabale has improved greatly over the last year and may make Wilkins expendable in trade to a team looking for someone to fill a hole.

For the frontcourt positions, Seattle will have some average players, but nothing exceptional. They are players that are capable in defending, but they doesn’t have the talent to decide games. Nick Collison is the best rebounder and defender; Chris Wilcox is the best low post scorer. Robert Swift looked to be solid before going down with a knee injury in preseason last year and has spent the summer bulking up in the weight room; Kurt Thomas is the veteran big man that the Sonics acquired from Phoenix. Swift will look to pick up where he left off, as he is a quality defensive center. He appears to be a pretty good shot blocker and he was rebounding well before his injury. If Seattle is really committed to a youth movement, Swift should see plenty of minutes this season. In 63 career games, spread over two seasons, he’s put up 5.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks per contest in only 16 minutes a night. He’ll have his chance this year. The better combination between these four players will be the inclusion of Chris Wilcox with one of the remaining three players. Wilcox offers more opportunities to attack the basket and he was a solid option in the past as a backup power forward/center (13.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 52.9% FG).

This team of Seattle will be out of the playoffs and taking in account their calendar, they should be out of them pretty soon. They have an horrible calendar in the beginning of the league. They open the season with a back-to-back at Denver and home to Phoenix, followed by a brutal stretch on the road for seven of the next 10. Get 30 wins in the regular season would be good but their task will be hard.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:34 PM

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

Portland had a terrible loss one month ago. Greg Oden’s knee injury and it ruined any chances the team had to qualify for the playoffs. On a team that won 80 games in the last three seasons, you can never expect nothing big from them. Besides that, this team has a good future. The Blazers are no longer a joke. Season-ticket sales increased by more than 60 percent and although a few were disappointed that Oden won’t be on board and asked for their money back, enthusiasm hasn’t waned for most. The reason is simple, they are a young and talented roster. They got rid of numerous players like Dan Dickau, Fred Jones, Zach Randolph, Steve Francis, Jamaal Magloire, Ime Udoka and Luke Schenscher, having now in the roster 11 players with two or less seasons on the league. This season will for young players like Roy, Aldridge, Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack and Travis Outlaw get into the spotlight. They won’t have any kind of pressure and they will be a good team for ATS this season.

The defending Rookie of the Year had some health issues, but he has a very well rounded game and should only get better. Roy made some impact in his rookie season: 16.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg 4 apg e 1.2 steals per game. These are numbers from a mature player and Roy give that impression last season. He had 45.6% FG and if he is capable of handling this number, then he will be close from 17/18ppg this season. Portland’s GM had a very good option in signing the veteran Steve Blake, who will help Roy in his evolution. Blake gives the Blazers a smart, pass-first point guard to lead their kiddie corps. Plus, Steve Blake moves to a team where he will get more opportunities to score. Even though, Blake did good in his run with Denver, Carmelo and Iverson were the ones who were the shooters and there weren’t many shots left over for Blake. He will also have the company of the young guns Jarret Jack and Sergio Rodriguez.

Jack proved last season that he is durable (79 games) and reliable (12.0 ppg, 5.3 apg, 87% FT). He should be the starter, in front of Blake and Rodriguez. He has a few more catch-and-shoot teammates, like Channing Frye and James Jones, which may lead to more assists. His evolution made him play more minutes last season, as in 2005/06 he had 20.2mpg and in 2006/07 he played 33.6mpg. Also last season he improved in rebounds (+0.6), in assists (+2.5) and in points (+5.3).

Rodriguez is actually a player appreciated by the Blazers’ supporters. And there are reasons for that, as Rodriguez’s quickness and passing ability proved last season that he was a good choice and he deserved more than the 12.9mpg that he played. With just an average of 12.9mpg he was capable of doing 3.3apg. So if in the future Rodriguez begins having 30mpg, he will easy do 8/9apg.

Travis Outlaw will finally have the opportunity of playing heavy minutes. I have great expectations to see what he can do this season. Looking at his last season’s numbers (22.9 min/game, 3.2 rpg, 0.8apg and 9.6 ppg), they aren’t impressive, but in the last month of the regular season, his numbers were amazing. With 31.2mpg, Outlaw doubled his points per game to 18.6ppg with 46.8% FG and 92% FT. If he is capable to get close to this numbers this season, we have a contender for the most improved player award.

Another key move for Portland was the trade of Zach Randolph. He showed that he is a good player, but far from being the elite player that Portland needs. His lack of consistence in the defensive game is worrying. For his place, Fyre was the chosen one. He took a huge step backwards last season, regressing in all major categories from his promising rookie campaign. He can’t get any worse than his 9.5 ppg, 43% FG, 5.5 rpg offerings in 2006-07. It will be hard to do worse than last season, but he was in the middle of the Knicks’ circus, so he has an excuse. With a young group, Fyre won’t have problems in adapting to his new team and he can be a good player to improve the team’s performance.

Lemarcus Aldridge enjoyed a solid rookie campaign with limited minutes and while fighting Zach Randolph for the inside touches. He will be the most benefited player with Randolph leaving the team. After last season’s All-Star break, Aldridge averaged over 14 points, 7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game while shooting over 53% from the field. And he did that in about 28 minutes per game. This will be his affirmation season and he has potential to do it.

These baby Blazers have a lot of potential. Of course they won’t reach the playoffs, but they have enough potential to cause some surprises. The dynamic that these young players will create will be very important for the future. Portland opens the season on the road with games at Dallas, San Antonio and Memphis before finally opening the season at home on against Miami. The calendar won’t be easy for them at the beginning, but they won’t have nothing to lose. Get 30 wins this season won’t be an impossible task for them.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:35 PM

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

The interest about Minnesota is over. For the Wolves there will only be one important match (National TV coverage) this season. Of course, it will be their home match against Boston. Randy Wittman will continue as the Wolves’ head coach and the supporters really like him. Don’t forget Wittman was with the Wolves for five seasons (1994-99) as an assistant coach. But that won’t care very much this season, as Minnesota will fight to not get last in the league, although in February/March they won’t be concerned to get last, as they would get more chances to have a top spot in the draft. Without Garnett the team will have a lot of problems to get 25 wins and I almost dare to say that not even 20 wins they will get this season. Even though they have some good players in the roster, the chemistry will never be very good, because they are players with very different characteristics. From the Garnett trade, just Al Jefferson is showing that he can be a top player for the Wolves.

Gerald Green didn’t improve last season and in the last three games in 2006/07, he went 4-26 in FG! He did accomplish the rare feat of doubling his rookie scoring average as a second-year-player (5.2 ppg to 10.4), but in the other actions he should get better too. His FG% dropped from 47.8% to 41.9% and his rebounds (2.5 per game) and assists (1.0) did little to suggest that he’s capable of affecting a game in multiple ways. He is just 21 years old, but he has to improve a lot. If he doesn’t, he will just be a player to appear in the highlights of a match due to a great dunk.

Al Jefferson on the other side is becoming a player that nobody expected him to be. He more than doubled his scoring, rebounding, and blocked-shot numbers last year, though in all fairness he also played more than twice as many minutes as in the previous years. What can we say about a player that goes from 49.9% to 51.4% in FG, 7.9 ppg to 16.0, 5.1 rpg to 11.0 and 0.8 bpg to 1.5? His evolution is just being amazing. Between March and April, Jefferson had almost 56% from the field with 20 ppg and 11 rpg. These are numbers from an all-star player! Of course I don’t expect him to do these numbers this season, as the west conference has bigger and stronger centers, but it’s an good indication of what Jefferson is capable to do.

The Wolves’ top draft won’t offer nothing relevant to the offensive game of the team. Brewer brings a winning pedigree, great size (6-9 with long arms), and a solid defensive reputation. His offensive game remains in question, but he could offer blocks and steals right away. Brewer will need at least three years to develop his offensive game.

The backcourt positions are delivered to Randy Foye and Ricky Davis. Foye is having some physical problems right now and it will be a huge problem for the team if he isn’t 100% at the start of the season. He had a promising rookie campaign, as he appeared in all 82 games with 10.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per night while shooting 45% from the field, 85% on free throws and 37% from the three-point line. His style of play is similar to Deron Williams’ style, but he needs at least one more season to become a mature player.

Ricky Davis will be with Al Jefferson and Randy Foye the players capable of creating their own opportunities. Last season he played 81 games and did 17.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.8 apg, 46.5% from the floor, 83.9% on free throws and 123 of 310 three-pointers for 39.7%. These are good numbers, but I have the feeling that it lacks something to Davis to make him become an elite player.

Mark Blount is the player that will complete the starting team of the Wolves. He played every game last season, shot over 50% from the field and averaged double-digit points, but he had very worrying numbers for the team. With 31 mpg, he only averaged 6.2 rebounds, which is a bad number for a center. Of course there was Garnett who took away all the protagonism to himself, but Blount will never be an aggressive player.

Just like I said, the Wolves will have a lot of problems this season. They have a far from equilibrated roster and only Davis and Jefferson have ever played well for a full season, and both of them did it in dreadful teams.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:35 PM

DENVER NUGGETS

Denver has a very strong roster and on paper, it would be a team to get more than 60 wins on the regular season. But they lack something that the Spurs, Dallas and Suns have: chemistry. Actually the team was even stronger before the offseason. The Nuggets made a few changes this summer but they made the roster worse. Steve Blake walked away, only to be replaced by Chucky Atkins and that was in my opinion a downgrade. Blake was capable of doing the mission of making assists, while Atkins was never capable of doing that during his whole career, as he just has a career average of 3.7apg. Blake would even be a good option to be a starter with Atkins staying at the bench. The solution will now be George Carl putting JR Smith as SG, sending Iverson to the PG position.

JR is a reliable bomber from three-point range when he can stay on the court and the fact that Denver’s opponents will be more worried with Carmelo and Iverson will give the chance of JR to get good numbers this season. Before the NY Brawl, he had great numbers and Denver was playing very well. JR had 16 ppg, but after the suspension he is never capable of reaching that form again and to adapt to Allen Iverson’s style of play. If he is capable of reaching that form again, then Denver will have an amazing offensive team in 2007/08.

The other player that the NY Brawl screwed was Carmelo Anthony. Melo was leading the league in scoring until his ill-advised slap-and-flee antics at Madison Square Garden. This season he may lead the league in points, but it would be better for the team that he was capable of raising his numbers in the other actions of the game instead of only caring about scoring. In the FIBA Americas Championship, Carmelo was phenomenal, being the player that scored more points of the team. This may be what Carmelo needed to start the season on his best shape.

Even though Denver has AI and Carmelo, it’s in the interior game that Denver appears to be very strong. They just need that their players to remain healthy the whole season. Kenyon Martin seems to be recuperated and if he can play at his best level, his aggressiveness will just rip the defense of Denver’s opponents. When fit, Martin easily reaches to numbers like 15 ppg and 5 rpg.

Nene Hilario had a monster season. Coming back from a major knee injury, Nene averaged twelve points and seven boards per game last year. But that is only half the story, the real story was the second half of the season, as after the All-Star break, he averaged nearly 14 points per game while shooting a blistering 62% from the field. In the playoffs against the Spurs he did pretty good, in keeping Duncan limited. He had 15.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg.

Of course, we have to talk about the best defender of last season: Marcus Camby. He had double digits in both points and rebounds: 11.2 ppg and 11.7 rpg. And of course the monster numbers in blocks: 3.3 bpg. Even in assists he did pretty good (3.2 apg). His problem is again the injuries. In 11 seasons, Camby was never capable of playing more than 70 games, being last season the year where he played more games. If he is capable of reaching last season’s numbers, it will be good enough for him.

And besides these players, that will have a lot of options in the bench: Najera, Atkins, Kleiza, Diawara and Carter are good solutions when Karl needs to change something.

Denver has a lot of dreams this season, but it will hard for them to go far in the playoffs, as their team chemistry is still weak. But they have 82 games to get better in this factor. George Karl wants to improve the team’s defense. Can they do it? At least Camby will help the team to do it. I’m seeing Denver having a good record in the regular season, but against the Spurs or Dallas, they won’t be able to take them down. If Denver is capable of winning the first round of the playoffs, they will do something that they couldn’t do in the last four seasons. But they want more.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:36 PM

UTAH JAZZ

After making a great campaign in the playoffs last season, Utah would have everything to have another great campaign this season. Carlos Boozer stayed healthy. Deron Williams came into his own. Mehmet Okur had a career year. But this season it won’t be as good as last season was. At least the chemistry between all the elements of the organization isn’t the best. After getting ripped by the Spurs, Deron Williams said some nasty words about his team mates’ performances in a message clearly destined to Andrei Kirilenko. Kirilenko, who resents both Jerry Sloan and his role in Utah’s offense, shined for Russia in this summer’s European Championships, leading it to a gold medal. Good for him, but bad for Utah as Kirilenko has now another reason to ask for more money.

Andrei Kirilenko’s multiple “”five-by-five”" stat lines and emergence as a defensive force like nothing seen on the hardwood, show that there is no most complete player than him right now in the league and probably since Pippen retired. Numerous sites have delved into the bizarre saga of Kirilenko’s desire to leave the NBA for a Russian team. AK 47 at his best is capable of 15 ppg, 8 rpg, 4 apg, almost 2 steals per game and 3 blocks per game. Jesus Christ! It will be hard to keep Kirilenko happy in Utah, but he is the key for the Jazz’s success not only this season, but also in the next years.

Deron Williams becomes into one of the league’s best floor generals in only his second year, running Jerry Sloan’s offense to perfection (9.3 apg, nearly 3/1 assists-to-turnovers). If he improves on last year’s 32% three-point shooting, he could add at least two or three points per game to his average. If that happens, Williams will become a 20-10 guy. Improving on his previous year’s scoring average by nearly six points (10.8 to 16.2) and more than doubling his assists per game from 4.5 to 9.3 in only eight more minutes per night is remarkable. The main problem for the Jazz will be find a solid backup for Williams.

Derek Fisher went to LA and Sloan will have a hard problem to solve. Jason Hart was brought into Utah to replace Fisher and to backup Williams. The young and athletic Ronnie Pricewill be the third point guard coming over from Sacramento.

The SG position is clearly the weakest position of the team. Giricek will start the season as a starter, but he will be nothing more than the fifth offensive option of the Jazz. But at least he can shoot (42.6% from three, 81.6% free throws). Matt Harpring will be the most solid backup for him and he should divide the minutes of the game with Giricek. In 25 mpg last season, he was capable of producing 11.6 ppg. Acceptable numbers for a player like him.

Boozer comes from an ET career season. If the fact that he remained healthy (played 74 games) wasn’t enough, he had amazing numbers (56.1% FG, 20.9 ppg and 11.7 rpg). It will be hard to do better this season, but Boozer has reached an all-star level and the combo Williams-Boozer is pretty good and it gives some easy shots to Boozer.

The X factor for this season (besides AK47) will be Mehmet Okur. He had his best season ever last year. Centers who hit 38.4% of their 336 three-point attempts are close to the extinguish. But he did pretty terrible in the playoffs or at least, he did worse than in the regular season. So, there’s my doubt in what he can do this season. If he is capable of getting back to his 2006-07 regular season numbers, then Utah will have the boost they need to do great again in 2007/08.

Utah has to be considered one of the top teams in the West on the merits of what they did last season, but San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix are one level above them. In addition, if Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson and company can actualize their potential in Denver, winning the Northwest Division again will be a bigger challenge this season for Utah. Repeat such great performance this season seems impossible.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:36 PM

ATLANTA HAWKS

Mike Woodson will enter his fourth season as the Hawks’ coach. And that may be his last season in Atlanta, as he will need to present better results that in the last seasons. On July 8, 2004, Mike Woodson became the Hawks’ tenth head coach since the franchise moved to the Atlanta area in 1968. After coaching Atlanta to a 13-69 record in his inaugural season, Woodson and the Hawks doubled that total of victories in year two, winning 26 of their 82 contests. With an overall mark of 39-125 (.238 winning percentage), even though he got more wins in successive seasons, this number isn’t enough. Unfortunately the team doesn’t have enough potential to reach the playoffs. Woodson’s victory totals in the past two season has increased in spite of poor draft decisions, massive injuries and an ongoing power struggle for ownership of the franchise that has kept the team from being a major player in free agency. The need of winning in Atlanta is so big that the coach found himself in a position that he was even obligated to win the preseason games. Atlanta has a 4-1 record until now, using their starting team more time than it was expected. Curiously, it looks like they had right choices in the two draft picks they made this season: Al Horford (#3 overall) and Acie Law IV (#11 overall).

Horford is a physical specimen with a significant upside. The Hawks’ roster is loaded with big forwards, so Horford getting squeezed out of minutes will definitely be a concern early on, but as the season progresses he should see more and more court time. Horford’s value could come as a back-up center. Also as he won’t have pressure to develop very quickly that will help him.

On the other side, Law has an NBA-ready game (he is actually older than Josh Smith and Marvin Williams) and even though he is a rookie, he has already a lot of experience. The Hawks desperately needed a guard such as Law. Not only he can pass the ball, he can score, which will take some of the pressure off of All-Star Joe Johnson to provide all the Hawks back court scoring and Law seems really to be the player they needed. Even though Law won’t be a starter in the beginning of the season, as Speedy Claxton should get the upperhand, we all know in the future Law will be the team’s PG.

The team will clearly depend from their stars: the two JJ. Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Johnson had another phenomenal season for the Hawks in 2006/07; averaging 25 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4 assists. Despite proving himself incredibly durable throughout his young career, Johnson did miss a significant portion of the last season with a calf injury. In normal conditions, Johnson is a player to have 25 ppg, 5 apg and 5 rpg, which makes him an all-star player. But the lack of support to help him in Atlanta makes his talent to be almost invisible.

Josh Smith after a bad season, cameback and had a great 2006/07. He had 16.4 ppg and pull down 8.6 rpg, including an amazing 1.4 steals and 2.9 blocks per game. Not everything was great, let’s not forget he also had 69.3% FT and 43.9% FG. His numbers will need to get better in order to be more competitive.

For the frontcourt positions, Atlanta doesn’t have a lot of valid solutions. Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia will be the starters, but both need to develop a lot. People are expecting that Williams finally shows why he was a draft top pick. Over the last month of the 2006/07 season he averaged 16.8 points and 6.2 boards in 40 minutes. Maybe that’s a good sign of what he can do this season, but we need to wait to see what he will do. On the other side, Zaza will have to divide minutes with Al Harford. His evolution wasn’t as good as it was in 2005, but still he has a lot of potential to become a good player.

Mike Woodson has a hard task on his way and the team doesn’t have enough options to make his job easy. There is a huge need to win and actually their calendar is favorable in the first games of the season for them. Maybe a good start can motivate them to do a good season. The main difference for this season is the inclusion of the two rookies, as they confirm they were good draft choices. If that happens, maybe Atlanta can think of reaching the playoffs. If it doesn’t the run of Mike Woodson in Atlanta will finish this season.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:37 PM

ORLANDO MAGIC

Orlando has every condition to be a very strong team in this season’s league. They have a very powerful big man and they will need to build the team around him. Curiously, Orlando’s staff didn’t do it in the last two season and they ended up paying the price for that (even though they reached the playoffs last season). For that task they hired the ideal coach to do this job: Stan Van Gundy, who worked with Shaq in Miami. He will know how to take advantage of the potential of Dwight Howard.

Howard had very good numbers last season (15.1 ppg and 11.6 rpg). But come on! He is capable of doing at least 25 ppg and that’s the objective that Van Gundy will work with him. Howard last season had 60 double doubles, something that made him the best of double doubles in the East and only Garnett did better than him in the whole league. He shot 60% from the floor last year, exceeding his FT%. And, entering his 4th year, he is yet to miss a game! The main question about the team is if Howard will have the necessary support to be capable of playing his best. For that, Orlando hired the free agent Rashard Lewis. Actually they spent too much money on him.

Lewis is clearly overrated and he will need to show quickly that he was worth the money. The good part is that he is on his prime. Last season he averaged 22.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.5 three-balls and 2.4 assists. Lewis is also a very efficient player and he was able to average those 22.4 points on just 16.8 shot attempts per contest. In Orlando he will have more chances to shoot the basket and if he is capable of staying well physically, then Lewis will explode. The player that didn’t like the fact that Lewis is now on the team is the Turkish Turkoglu.

Turkoglu had a decent season last year, but will likely lose a significant share of his scoring opportunities with Lewis in the roster. Maybe he will be the 6th man that Orlando will certainly need in some matches.

To command the team, Van Gundy will trust that role to Nelson. Jameer Nelson had a disappointing year. His point and assist averages both dipped despite seeing an increase in playing time. He is a very short guard to defend some taller and stronger guards. I still can remember what Billups was capable of doing against Orlando last season. But in fact, Nelson has conditions to bounce back, as Orlando this season will have more offensive options, which makes the task of Nelson to decide what to do with the ball easier.

The 6′8 Ariza has a shot as the starting 2-guard. However, the Magic have rotation options at shooting guard. He will have to divide minutes with JJ Redick. Ariza will provide excellent rebounding and FG% for a guard, perhaps low double-figure scoring, steals, but nothing else. On the other side, Redick is expected to play more this season, as he averaged just 14.5 mpg in his rookie campaign. In the summer league, Redick in five games averaged 19.8 points, 3.8 assists and 2 three-pointers per game. So, I believe Van Gundy will give him more chances to play.

Tonny Battie will be the PF of the team. Even though there is a chance that Turkoglu ends playing at this position, taking advantage of the fact that Howard is capable of dominating the boards alone. Battie played very few minutes last season, but he had a good performance but also nothing that makes him an untouchable starter in the team.

This Magic have conditions to do better than last season, they just need to work on their style of play and taking the max advantage of the beast they have, as Howard with 22 years old can do more than he has done until now and everybody waits that this year he can finally fulfill his talent.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:37 PM

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Charlotte appears to be self-destructing even before the start of the league. It seems unbelievable, but they haven’t played one official game and already two important players are out of the season: Sean May and the 3 Draft Pick last season Adam Morrison. After a bad rookie season, Morrison was preparing to do better this season (worse was impossible), but a knee injury will make him skip the whole season of 2007/08. A couple of weeks ago, the same happened with Sean May. So this team begins this season with a huge handicap towards their opponents and if it wasn’t that they would fight for a positive season. Even though they don’t have a roster full of superstars, but have a complete and deep roster.

Felton is the guard Sam Vincent wanted to have. Felton has managed two promising seasons. Last year he was up to 14 points and 7 assists per game, along with 1.3 3’s – playing a solid 36 minutes per game. His biggest question mark is the field goal percentage. He is capable of distributing the ball very well, conduct the game on a quick way and at the same time defend well. Felton looks like from being the same class as Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Even though he isn’t as good as these two players, Felton is a really interesting player.

Felton’s backup will be Marr Carrol. Last season he shot an impressive 41 percent from behind the arc and was one of the top free throw shooters in the league at 90 percent. Carroll has improved in every offensive category last season from his previous career stats including shooting percentage, three-point percentage, free throw percentage and scoring per game.

Jason Richardson is clearly the biggest hiring that the Bobcats did this off season and he will be clearly the most talented player of the team. J Rich will have green card to shoot the basket, but he needs to get his % FG and FT better than last season. Well that won’t be hard, as in Golden State he ended up shooting from any place of the field. He also has very good numbers in both assists and rebounds. He is capable of doing 5/6 rebounds and 3/4 assists per game. If he is capable of keeping himself healthy, J Rich will have arguments to reach the average of 22/23 ppg. Something that shouldn’t be very hard to do, as he had these numbers a couple of seasons ago.

Talk about Gerald Wallace is talk about one of the most underrated players in the league. He is a stats machine, putting up huge numbers in any category on any given night. Wallace is a very complete player and he had very good numbers in almost all categories last season. 18.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.0 spg and 1.0 bpg make him a very versatile player. If he remains at 100%, the Bobcats will have a top player to work with. Don’t forget that Wallace in April had 24.1 ppg, 59.4% FG and 9.1 rpg. These are all-star numbers! If we look to his max numbers on a game last season, he had 42 points, 17 rebounds, 9 assists, 6 steals and 5 blocks! Wow! He is capable of doing everything!

The Bobcats’ frontcourt is very solid. With Sean May, it would have been even better, but Emeka Okafor is doing what he needs to do: defend and get a lot of rebounds. He had 14.4 ppg, 11.3 rbp, 2.6 bpg and 0.9 spg in 2006/07. Of course he could have done better in terms of points, but Emeka is clearly a better defender than an attacker. He has been consistent during his first three years and his improved shooting is an indication that he is perhaps on the verge of raising his offensive post game to the next level. His physical shape is still his weakest link, as he has missed 71 games in the last two seasons and an injury this season would be the end of the line for the Bobcats this season.

To complement Okafor, the Bobcats will put the Argentinian Walter Hermann in the field, who had an amazing month of April last season. The reserve forward averaged 9.2 points and 1.1 3’s in about 19 minutes per game in his first NBA season. But in April, he exploded with 19.9 points (on 57.3% shooting), 5.6 boards, and 2.8 three’s per contest! Without Sean May, the Argentinian will play more minutes and he will be able to improve even faster.

Primoz Brezec will be the other option for the frontcourt and even though he isn’t capable of doing the numbers he did in the past, Brezec has still some quality. He dropped off substantially last year, with an injury and limited playing time (58 games; 14 minutes per game), but his technique is still there and he will have more minutes this season for sure.

Without Sean May and Adam Morrison, the Bobcats lost almost all hopes to reach a playoff spot. They want to do a better record than last year and they should be capable of doing that. Ask more than that will be hard, as Jordan is forming a team for the future and it won’t be still this season that the Bobcats will go far in the league.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:38 PM

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

The Wizards have what every top team should have: at least three elite players. But when we look to the contenders for the title, do we even think about Washington? I don’t think so. Even though they have Arenas, Jamison and Butler and they have won more than 50% of their matches in the last three seasons, they are yet to prove that they can win the title. They are like the Suns of the East, but without the ability of deciding games in the last second. Even though Arenas gave some examples how to decide games in the last second, we can’t expect him to score three points 10m far away the basket in the last moment of the match every time. The last season was more like a practice. Arenas and Butler got injured and the team lacked weapons to fight in the playoffs. This year, things are expected to be a little bit different, as people are expecting Washington to be more competitive in the postseason.

Arenas is a NBA superstar and one of the most charismatic players in the league. Very few players are capable of doing these numbers: 228.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 6.0 apg, 8.2 FTM (at 84.4%) and 41.8% FG shooting in 2006/07. But it’s even more impressive that he did 2.8 3-points per game. I don’t expect nothing but Arenas to repeat a performance like this, this season. To help him, Arenas will have DeShawn Stevenson.

Stevenson didn’t have a bad season last year (11 ppg, under 3 assists and less than one 3 per game), but this season he will have more chances to do better numbers, taking advantage that the Wizards’ opponents will be more worried with the three superstars than with him. When Arenas got injured, Stevenson had 2.2 threes per game, something that is a good sign of what he can do this season.

Carton Butler should confirm his ascendant career - 3 years in a row getting better - 19.1 points, 7.4 rebounds (2.3 offensive), 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals. He shot a respectable 46% from the floor and an outstanding 86% from the line (on 5.2 attempts). These are good numbers and it’s expected that he can confirm them this year.

To complete the trio, we need to talk about Jamison, who had a great performance in the playoffs, but he couldn’t do nothing alone. Jamison’s game has become more and more perimeter-oriented, but unfortunately for the Wizards, this isn’t what they need right now, as they are already very strong in the perimeter. Of course Jamison had very good numbers in the regular season (almost 20 points, 8 rebounds and 2 threes per contest of last year is exceptional), but his numbers in terms of rebounds (especially in the offensive ones) are falling down and the Wizards will have problems against teams with very powerful centers.

The center position looks to be the weakest link in the team. Etan Thomas will be out due to a heart irregularity and Haywood will be the new starting center of the team. Haywood has been losing influence in the team, even though he will get more minutes this season, but I don’t expect him to do any kind of development this season. If he has a season at the level of what he did in 2004/05 (9.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg and 1.7 bpg), it would be good, but I doubt that he can do it.

Antonio Daniels, who showed some good basketball when Arenas got injured, will be a good support when the team will need something new on a match. Of course I can’t forget that the Wizards decided to trade Juan Carlos Navarro, in a move that will cost them a lot for sure. For the frontcourt, the main backup will be Darius Songailla, who showed in FIBA Eurobasket that when he has minutes to play, he can contribute with good numbers. Songaila is a reliable percentage shooter, better than 50% FG and 85% FT.

The season of the Wizards will be better than last season, at least the last month of competition will be for sure. The goal of 50 wins in the regular season in possible, but making a good run in the playoffs will be very hard. Even though Arenas is a great shooter, the team lacks a killer instinct and a center who can do 10/11 rebounds per night.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:38 PM

MIAMI HEAT

What the Miami directors thought before the off season? Maybe the way that Chicago squashed team in the playoffs made them go nuts and they decided to change the team. And in fact, they changed it. But the team just got way worse than it was. The team’s management in the offseason has been terrible. Jason Kapono, Eddie Jones, James Posey and Gary Payton have all left the team. To compensate the fact that so many good players left the team, they should have hired player equally good or better than them. Did they do it? No way!

To the guard position, they hired Smush Parker! The only positive aspect Smush has is being durable. He is capable of doing a whole season without injuries. Besides that, he is a turnover prone player and he can’t command himself let alone a whole team. Also he won’t be the better option for Miami because even though Wade will create space for Parker, he is a bad 3pt shooter. So, the team will be dependent of the physical shape of Jason Williams. If he is 100% fit, Williams is a good player, capable of doing everything well. Forget the white chocolate from six seasons ago, this one is different.

Miami missed the hiring of both Bell and Mo Williams, another example of bad management. The team will start without Dwayne Wade and that’s a worry for them because Wade alone fills up the PG and SG positions. When healthy, Wade is the most talented player in the league and he is capable of doing some insane numbers. Having 27 ppg, 49% FG, 5.0 rpg, 7.5 apg, 2.1 spg and even 1.2 bpg is just crazy and only 1% of the NBA players can actually dream about doing these numbers. He just needs to get better in his % 3 pts, but that will be hard as Wade is clearly a specialist in penetrating into the basket and make his opponents foul him. In 2005/06 he went 803 to the free throw line. Wow!

With Posey out of the team, Walker will be the probable starter in the SF position, but it will be for a short time, because he should never play more than 30 minutes per game. Besides that, Walker is a typical playoff player and Pat Riley won’t use for a lot of minutes in the regular season. Maybe Riley is already preparing the enter of Dorell Wright in the starting team. Dorell started 19 games for Miami last season and in those starts he averaged 28.4 minutes, 8.7 points, and 6.7 rebounds and nearly a steal and a block per game. There is also another contender for a spot in the team: Penny Hardaway is back with 36 years old! But he had too much time without playing and he won’t be a valid solution. I won’t even say anything else about him, as his performance will be an incognito.

For the frontcourt positions, Miami will continue with O’Neal and Haslem. The second one did 10 ppg and 8 rpg last season, but come on! He has some confidence issues and with the talent he has he should be a player to do 15 ppg and 9/10 rpg without any kind of problem. Let’s wait that this year he can finally play according to his talent. I left O’Neal for last. It’s sad but O’Neal is already in the downfall of his career. Last season proved that. He played less games and for that the first game he played less than 30 mpg. He also had less than 9 rpg and for the first time in 14 seasons, he had less than 20 ppg. The solution will be save him the max time possible for the playoffs, so he can show the good old O’Neal that is still inside him. But without Wade out in the beginning of the season, the whole team will depend of him. Alonzo Mourning is a solid backup, but he doesn’t have 30 years old anymore and Pat Riley will need to manage the time of these two players very well.

This team of Miami can’t be considered a contender for the title for now. It will depend from the physical shape they will be in the postseason. They have the advantage of belonging to the weakest division in the NBA, which may give them some advantage towards the other teams, but they won’t be clearly the dominant team they were 2/3 years ago, because they don’t have enough valid solutions for that.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:39 PM

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

The Sixers were one of the biggest surprises of the season last year. After being 5-19 with Iverson, with AI leaving the team, they ended up having 30 wins in 59 games. How can you explain that? Besides Iverson, Webber left the team too. What was the key for that? Andre Miller? Miller had a fast adaptation to Philadelphia but he wasn’t the responsible for that, actually if Iverson couldn’t carry the team, why would Miller able to do it? What really changed was the team chemistry. That was the factor that contributed for the positive season of the Sixers pos-Iverson. And also the fact that some opponents underestimated them and curiously this good record that made them 3rd in the division may be fatal for the future of the squad.

When the Sixers decided to let Iverson go, they did it with the propose of having cap salary for the future and for some good positions at the draft. With the good run last season, they lost the chance of having a top pick. And from a possibility of having 1 or 2 draft picks, they got the 12th choice. The supporters weren’t expecting that as they were hoping to get Greg Oden or Kevin Durant. Thanks to that the Sixers enter this season just with the best they had last season: team chemistry. But will be that enough for a 82-games season?

Andre Miller will try to have the same productivity he had last season in here already, where he was capable of doing 13 ppg, 7 apg and 4.5 rpg. He’ll also shoot a solid percentage from the line and come up with some steals. Kevin Ollie will be his backup, but he won’t be able to help a lot. I expect Miller to play something like 37 mpg.

The main star of the team is Andre Iguodala (A.I 2.0), who had a tremendous evolution after Iverson left the team. His full season numbers were 18.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.0 steals and 6.0 free throws per game (on 7.3 attempts, 82%). His FG% dropped from 50% in 2005-06 to 44% last year, as he added significant attempts from the outside with the departure of Iverson. Of course with the departure of Iverson, Iguodala easily reached the mark of the 20 points.

To complete the roster in the perimeter, the Sixers have Kyle Korver and Willie Green. Korver is more certain and he can be specially useful as he is again expected to start (between the 2 and 3 with Iguodala). He should maintain his 30 minutes per game participation. He is a prolific 3-pt shooter but Korver hasn’t improved in the last months and he is only useful for these two categories. I think it would be more useful for the team if he was used as the 6th man. Green has also averaged double figure points, at 11.3 per game, often showing flashes of greater possibilities. His evolution has been good as he averaged 29 ppg in the last three matches last season and made eight 3’s in the last two games. Of course he won’t do that in the regular season, but it’s a good indicator of what he can do on a good day.

For the frontcourt positions, the Sixers are very limited when it comes to the attack. They have good players to fight for some rebounds, but nothing more than that. They hired Reggie Evans, who is a great rebounder. Evans may start, or will certainly have the opportunity to garner starter minutes one way or another, as he can approach double-digit rebounding numbers on a nightly basis. With the style of Evans, we have Dalembert. He managed to play all 82 games last season, averaging nearly 11 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 30 minutes per game. The main concern is that he is injured right now and nobody knows if he will be get back to his good form when he comes back.

From the three draft picks, maybe Jason Smith will be the one that will offer something useful to the team. He may step in as more of an immediate contributor, given the team a substantial lack of front-line scoring ability.

The Sixers will a lot of ability to suffer and to work a lot, because their roster is so weak that only with a lot of chemistry they will be able of doing something positive. Doing a similar record to last season’s would be already very good for them.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:39 PM

TORONTO RAPTORS

Toronto was the ATS champion with a record last season of 50-37-1. The bookies started hating them because they didn’t know how to rate them. They started with a 2-8 record, so how it was possible for them to do such recuperation? The answer is simple: Sam Mitchell had to change the style of play of the team. Toronto dropped the idea of a wild run and gun style to implement a more controlled style, to make them defend better. This new style of play fitted 100% on the team because most players have a big experience in Europe and that’s the way they were used to play there. Calderon, Garbajosa, Parker, Bargnani and Nesterovic all had good performances last season, because they clearly fitted on this style of play. For this season, expectations are big. Toronto didn’t make big moves. Just Kapono and Delfino entering the team and Morris Peterson leaving it. The big star of the team continues naturally to be Chris Bosh.

Bosh has dominated the east conference last season. This season he will have more opponents, but his numbers are unbelievable. Bosh is coming off another phenomenal fantasy campaign. He averaged 22.6 points, 10.7 boards, to go along with 1.3 blocks and great percentages. Bosh is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his left foot, but claims that this is just a precautionary measure. When he is 100% fit, Bosh is a 20/10 monster and his versatility makes him almost impossible to stop.

TJ Ford has a very good season last year - averaging 14 points, 7.9 dimes and 1.4 steals a night. With last season coming to an end, Calderon began stealing him more minutes, including in the playoffs. Ford expects to comeback to his best this season, but there is a factor that may screw him. Calderon is very talented and he could start for a few teams in the NBA and he will enter this season as a future free agent, so the Raptors will need to give him more minutes or they will have the risk of losing him in the offseason. This measure may be good for the team, but bad for Ford.

Parker proved that he is a good player. After being the MVP in the Euroleague (biggest European competition), his comeback to the league was pretty good. Not only he contributed in the defense, he also was a good offensive solution. This season he will have Delfino as a contender for his spot. But the more versatility of Parker should be enough to make him play at least 30 mpg.

Garbajosa was another pleasant surprise for the Raps last season, before suffering a gruesome leg injury late in the season. I believe almost nobody was expecting so much from him, but that was they were sleeping for sure. He averaged 8.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg and 1.2 spg. He will have Kapono as a backup, who will be very good for the team, as he showed that he is very efficient in the 3 point shooting.

Finally for the Center position, Toronto won’t have problems. Nesterovic will begin the season as a starter, but even though he never screws the team, we all know the protagonism will be for Bargnani. The Italian even though was the number 1 pick last season, the specialists never expected a lot from him, but the proved the opposite. There is a lot to like about the 7-foot Italian stallion, as he made 11.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg and 1.5 three-pointers per contest last season. Bargnani needs to be more aggressive in the rebounds, but with Bosh on his side, this isn’t that important right now. But of course it would be good if he was capable of averaging 5.0 rpg.

This team has everything to do another season at the level of last season. Same coach, same players, same system. After the playoffs, we will see if the team will be mature.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:40 PM

NEW YORK KNICKS

In the four years Thomas has spent as president, the Knicks have made the playoffs only once, getting swept by the rival New Jersey. They have never finished above .500. They spent a fortune to hire Larry Brown and then paid him to go away. If that wasn’t enough that the players and coach couldn’t do nothing right, the owner James Dolan to follow his employees and did another terrible management action. He offered in March a multi year extension contract to Isiah Thomas. That seemed right to him at the time, as the Knicks were very few games below 50% and playing well, but was these results enough to make Thomas earn a contract extension? The results speak for themselves: they just won 4 of the last 19 games last season.

As always the Knicks messed a lot with their roster in the off season with some relevant transactions. The biggest was Zack Randolph joining the team. But how will he fit in the team? The last big center double in the league was Davids Robinson and Tim Duncan. The two combined well because they had different styles and of course, they are two of best centers in the league ever. Even though Curry and Randolph had good numbers last season, one thing seems inevitable: the conventional wisdom dictates that one or both of them will have to sacrifice shots and scoring opportunities in order to co-exist. Don’t forget that Randolph was one of only five players in the entire league to average over 20 points and 10 rebounds per game last season. The double Randolph-Curry seems to be indestructible, but I don’t think that and we will see that this season. But there is something I know. Their opponents will toy with them and they are both terrible defenders. This double will end up destructing the future frontcourt star of the team: David Lee.

Lee was one of the most efficient players in the league last year. He averaged 10.7 points and 10.4 rebounds despite playing less than 30 minutes a night. In addition, Lee shot 60% from the floor and 81.5% from the free-throw line. Will Isiah Thomas be able to give minutes to Lee, as his aggressivity has nothing in common to Curry and Randolph and he clearly deserves that chance.

To supply points to these big guys, the Knicks will use Starbury. It would be brutal for the Knicks if Marbury could become Starbury again. His claim to fame was averaging over 20 points and 8 assists for the first 11 years of his career. Last season he only had 5.4 apg, when five seasons ago he used to have 9.0 apg. This factor will be the X Factor of the Knicks this season.

To complete the backcourt, the Knicks will have Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson. Crawford will have less opportunities this season. He isn’t the 1st or 2nd option in the attack, but the 3rd or 4th option right now. His numbers in the last seasons are good, but terrible in the %’s. 40% for a player that plays 37 mpg isn’t good. So, Crawford will need to get better and be more selective in his shootings. On the other side, Richardson will have the chance of improve his numbers this season. With Randolph and Curry in the area, he will be wide open a good number of times and he should use his great 3-points shooting ability to score a lot of points for his team.

Another seasons and the Knicks’ fans without having the sensation of having a complete and competitive team. The roster isn’t equilibrated and with Isiah Thomas in the bench, it will be hard to reach the playoffs. They should have a better record this season, but far from that seems very hard. They would need to get better and quickly.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:41 PM

NEW JERSEY NETS

The Nets don’t need a lot to have a great season. They don’t even need their players to develop a lot or wait for their rookie to do an amazing campaign. No, they just need they all their players keep healthy. Just that. And if that happens, we will have a team that will win more than 50 games without much trouble. Every top team has three elite players. Dallas has Dirk, Howard and Terry. The Spurs has Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. The Suns has Nash, Amare and Marion. Well, the Nets in normal conditions have four superstars.

Nenad Kristic is the key of the Nets. Before his injury last season, he was averaging 16.4 ppg and 6.8 rpg. Kristic is in the NBA for four seasons and he got better in all actions of the game. When he was getting ready to make a season close to an all-star level, he got injured and only played 26 games. His inclusion in the Nets will make the team way better and he is a center with an amazing technique, very similar to the other centers from the Eastern part of Europe. With him, the big three of the Nets will finally have someone in the interior zone in who they can trust.

We don’t need to talk a lot about Kidd, as he is one of the three most complete players in the league ever. And he is like the wine. The older, the better. Kidd had probably his best season ever last year, with 13.0 ppg, 9.2 apg and 8.2 rpg, but if we look to his playoff numbers, he put a cherry on top of his phenomenal campaign by averaging a triple-double in the playoffs. Kidd became only the second player in the NBA history, joining Oscar Robertson, to average a triple-double (14.6 points, 10.9 rebounds, 10.9 assists) for an entire postseason. And his postseason included 12 games!

Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson need to improve their numbers, especially Carter who should be calmer, after signing a new contract. Even though Carter averaged a career-high in rebounds (6.0) and assists (4.8), his performance wasn’t amazing. There were games where he simply didn’t do nothing. Jefferson needs to be at 100%. The ideal would be him get back to his 2004 numbers, where he averaged 22.2 points, 7.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists, but something close to that would be already good.

The Nets hired Jamal Magloire and at the same time, they got rid of Mikki Moore. Magloire almost had all-star numbers in the past, but of course he will never reach that points in the Nets. He will be the 5th choice for the attack, but he will surely do better than in Portland last season, where he only played 21 mpg and just 6.5 ppg and 6.1 rpg.

One of the negative aspects of the team is that the Nets don’t have a lot of good solutions in the bench. This season they are a little better as the now Sophomore Marcus Williams showed to be useful in the team last season, giving precious minutes of rest to Kidd. This season he will develop more, because it’s impossible not to develop when Jason Kidd is your teammate. Bostjan Nachbar will be the 6th man, as his evolution has been spectacular and this season he should have enough confidence to be a solid backup.

Mark Allen and Josh Boone will be the backups of the centers. Boone has enough margin to improve and he will take advantage of the minutes he will play.

This team of Lawrence Frank, as long as they stay fit, has all the necessary conditions to dominate the league. It’s a very complete team and they should be able of getting a top spot in the playoffs. More than 50 wins seems to be an accessible scenario.

**andre gomes** · 10-30-07, 02:41 PM

BOSTON CELTICS

After the Celtics had their third worst season ever (24-58), something had to change. With their neighbors Red Sox and Patriots doing well, the real Celtics’ fans wanted a real change in the team. Danny Ainge had two options: he either changed the team via new blood with top draft picks in a process that would take 2/3 years, but that would cost them Paul Pierce (who wouldn’t stay in Boston without a chance to win) and a lot of supporters or they would destroy their future and to try to reach a title in 2/3 years. And his option, as we all know, as the second one.

The first step was the hiring of Ray Allen, by getting rid of their top draft pick. But the real step was the hiring of Kevin Garnett, in a trade that the world had never saw. Garnett was traded for seven players! Forwards Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green, guard Sebastian Telfair and center Theo Ratliff, two first-round draft picks and cash considerations. But the Celtics’ roster is now insufficient. To be a top team they need to have solutions in the bench and it won’t be hard to get some good veteran free agents, but it will be Danny Ainge’s skills that will decide the future of the Celtics.

Whoever they still get, this team is overrated. All supporters expect that the Celtics can become champions. Do they know how difficult it is to win the league? They are just setting up Boston with unrealistic expectations. Would you put this team fighting against Dallas or San Antonio in a best of 7 series? I don’t think so, but in fact they don’t need to win the title this season. Garnett is 31, Allan is 32 and Pierce is 30. They will be able to offer more 2/3 seasons at their best, so Boston will have a better chance to get the ring in the next few years.

The big star of the team is of course the big ticket, one of the main contenders to the MVP. And now he will be on the spotlight (something that he didn’t in Minnesota). Garnett, along with former Celtics player Larry Bird, is one of only two players in NBA history to average at least 20, 10, and 5 for five consecutive seasons. He hasn’t missed more than six games in a season since 1998-99. Last year he put up 22.4 points, 12.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists to go along with 1.7 blocks and 1.2 steals. He was also the player in the league with more double-doubles last season. But Garnett’s style of play makes him be more prone to help the team in making assists than anything else. Boston needs clearly a good PG playmaker. And as they don’t have one, Garnett will have to be something like a second guard and distribute the game, something that he does pretty well. If he is capable to repeat the numbers of the 2002-03 season (6.0 apg), he would be the MVP for sure. Another factor that will help him is the fact that he won’t face Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki or Amare Stoudemire so many times, who use to cause him problems in playing his game.

Ray-Ray will benefit from the passing ability of Garnett. It looks like he didn’t have a good season last year, but looking at the stats, he averaged 26 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists. Well, those would be career numbers for most of the players in the league. Actually only three players did better than him: Kobe, Lebron and Arenas. This season he won’t shoot so many times, but when he shoot most of the times wide open, something that in Seattle he had problems to do.

To complete the big three, we have Paul Pierce, who has always been underrated and without any real company in the team. Last season he only played 47 games, but he had time to do his usual numbers - 25ppg, 7 rpg and 4 apg. It’s his normal numbers and this season he won’t even need to do such higher numbers. The chemistry between these three players will be essential to make a good team. In the preseason they have showed a good dynamic, but let’s not overrate them. Duncan, Ginobili and Parker are at a higher level because they know each other very well, something that Pierce, Allen and Garnett will only conquer with time.

They are two open spots in the team and Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins should be the chosen ones, especially Rondo. Rajon will start mainly thanks to his performance in the last month of last year’s league. Over the season’s final month, Rondo averaged over 13 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals while playing 36 minutes per contest. That was enough for Doc Rivers and Danny Ainge to let him stay in the roster. But he needs to work not on his shooting ability (he shot just 41.8% from the floor and converted just 64.7% of his free-throws last season), but specially on his passing abilities (his task will be to serve the big 3) and in this task he may have some problems. Is Ainge planning to hire an experienced guard?

Kendrick Perkins will be the center of the team. What he should do is taking advantage of the space Garnett will create. Perkins lead the Celtics in blocks (1.3 per game) last season and had decent rebounding numbers (5.2 RPG), considering he played just 22 minutes a night. He will be a good center for the team, but without doing amazing exhibitions.

Just like I said previously, Boston isn’t the best team of the league, but they will be a target for public money and terrible in the ATS record. They need a deeper roster and only Posey seems to be a solid backup. If the team gets more players, they can think about a great run in the playoffs, but everything is going to depend on the team chemistry.