NBA Odds: Blazers host Phoenix Suns
Portland's Brandon Roy, with knee surgery barely a week behind him, will try and keep his team in the playoff mix tonight at home. The Trail Blazers trail Phoenix 3-2 in their opening round series and will lean heavily on Roy in hopes of forcing a Game 7 back in the desert on Saturday. The Suns are favored by a point to end it at the Rose Garden tonight, part of TNT's Thursday night playoff doubleheader.
In wrestling, they call it “The Spirit of ’76.” That’s when the hero, previously injured in an act of skullduggery, comes out of the locker room with his head covered in bandages, risking life and limb to save his allies from a savage beating inside the ring. The hero should also carry the American flag for full effect. The fans love it.
That’s the epic storyline for Game 6 of the Western Conference quarterfinal between the Phoenix Suns and the Portland Trail Blazers. Phoenix is up 3-2 SU and ATS in this series, and it’s been mostly the Suns beating up on the Blazers since the opener.
In to save the day comes Portland’s hero, superstar guard Brandon Roy (21.36 PER). Roy suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee and had arthroscopic surgery just before the playoffs. He was back in a limited role by Game 4, and according to The Columbian, Roy says he’ll start Game 6 on Thursday.
The Blazers need that extra 20 minutes of Roy, because what they’ve got happening right now isn’t working out too well. The last three games have all gone 'under' as Portland struggles to solve the Suns defense. LaMarcus Aldridge (18.30 PER) was effectively double-teamed in Portland’s three losses – in Game 4, he exploded for 31 points and 11 rebounds in a Blazers victory. Aldridge needs help, and he hasn’t been getting it for the most part.
Roy can make a difference if he’s healthy enough. And that’s the big question here. Eight days is an incredibly short amount of recovery time from having your knee scoped; the industry standard layoff is 2-4 weeks. Roy’s first two games back in uniform were a little sketchy. He gave himself an “average” grade in Game 4 with 10 points in 27 minutes off the bench, but Game 5 was worse: five points in 19 ineffective minutes as Phoenix (-7½ at home) cruised to a 19-point victory. Roy was a combined minus-19 over those two games.
Portland coach Nate McMillan doesn’t have anywhere else to turn if Roy can’t rescue the Blazers. Rudy Fernandez (13.10 PER) has fallen out of the rotation, as McMillan has astutely used combo guard Jerryd Bayless (14.38 PER) in the starting backcourt next to veteran Andre Miller. The Blazers bench has already been stretched to the limit with injuries, and it cost them both Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw to get Marcus Camby from the Los Angeles Clippers to fill the hole at center. It’s Roy or bust.
It’s entirely possible Phoenix could hand-deliver a win to Portland, as well. The Suns haven’t been getting consistent play from their bench, which has been weakened by the absence of center Robin Lopez (17.66 PER) due to bulging disks in his back.
In Game 4, Goran Dragic (14.87 PER) and Jared Dudley (13.60 PER) were virtually invisible. In Game 5, they combined for 26 points and six assists. Channing Frye (15.09 PER) scored 20 points against his old team after managing just 14 points over the previous three games.
So we have an unknown in Roy and an unknown in the Phoenix bench. If we pretend those cancel out, everything else looks very good for the Suns. The betting odds for Game 6 have Portland favored by just a single point with a total of 201½. The Suns are excellent on the road at 13-6 ATS in their last 19; the Blazers are 20-22-1 ATS at the Rose Garden this year compared to 26-17-1 ATS away. Make it against winning teams, and Phoenix is 14-11 ATS on the road while Portland is 9-13 ATS at home.
One more important piece of news before this contest: Amare Stoudemire (22.69 PER) has not been suspended for throwing an elbow in Aldridge’s direction during Game 3. He’ll receive a “flagrant foul 1” instead. Two more of those and Stoudemire will indeed get a one-game suspension. Arranging some kind of Stoudemire meltdown might be Portland’s best hope if Roy doesn’t come through. Maybe get McMillan to throw salt in his eyes.
Thursday's game Tips at 10:30 p.m. (ET) on TNT, the second part of a playoff twinbill that opens with the Mavericks and Spurs in San Antonio for Game 6 of their series.
Portland's Brandon Roy, with knee surgery barely a week behind him, will try and keep his team in the playoff mix tonight at home. The Trail Blazers trail Phoenix 3-2 in their opening round series and will lean heavily on Roy in hopes of forcing a Game 7 back in the desert on Saturday. The Suns are favored by a point to end it at the Rose Garden tonight, part of TNT's Thursday night playoff doubleheader.
In wrestling, they call it “The Spirit of ’76.” That’s when the hero, previously injured in an act of skullduggery, comes out of the locker room with his head covered in bandages, risking life and limb to save his allies from a savage beating inside the ring. The hero should also carry the American flag for full effect. The fans love it.
That’s the epic storyline for Game 6 of the Western Conference quarterfinal between the Phoenix Suns and the Portland Trail Blazers. Phoenix is up 3-2 SU and ATS in this series, and it’s been mostly the Suns beating up on the Blazers since the opener.
In to save the day comes Portland’s hero, superstar guard Brandon Roy (21.36 PER). Roy suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee and had arthroscopic surgery just before the playoffs. He was back in a limited role by Game 4, and according to The Columbian, Roy says he’ll start Game 6 on Thursday.
The Blazers need that extra 20 minutes of Roy, because what they’ve got happening right now isn’t working out too well. The last three games have all gone 'under' as Portland struggles to solve the Suns defense. LaMarcus Aldridge (18.30 PER) was effectively double-teamed in Portland’s three losses – in Game 4, he exploded for 31 points and 11 rebounds in a Blazers victory. Aldridge needs help, and he hasn’t been getting it for the most part.
Roy can make a difference if he’s healthy enough. And that’s the big question here. Eight days is an incredibly short amount of recovery time from having your knee scoped; the industry standard layoff is 2-4 weeks. Roy’s first two games back in uniform were a little sketchy. He gave himself an “average” grade in Game 4 with 10 points in 27 minutes off the bench, but Game 5 was worse: five points in 19 ineffective minutes as Phoenix (-7½ at home) cruised to a 19-point victory. Roy was a combined minus-19 over those two games.
Portland coach Nate McMillan doesn’t have anywhere else to turn if Roy can’t rescue the Blazers. Rudy Fernandez (13.10 PER) has fallen out of the rotation, as McMillan has astutely used combo guard Jerryd Bayless (14.38 PER) in the starting backcourt next to veteran Andre Miller. The Blazers bench has already been stretched to the limit with injuries, and it cost them both Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw to get Marcus Camby from the Los Angeles Clippers to fill the hole at center. It’s Roy or bust.
It’s entirely possible Phoenix could hand-deliver a win to Portland, as well. The Suns haven’t been getting consistent play from their bench, which has been weakened by the absence of center Robin Lopez (17.66 PER) due to bulging disks in his back.
In Game 4, Goran Dragic (14.87 PER) and Jared Dudley (13.60 PER) were virtually invisible. In Game 5, they combined for 26 points and six assists. Channing Frye (15.09 PER) scored 20 points against his old team after managing just 14 points over the previous three games.
So we have an unknown in Roy and an unknown in the Phoenix bench. If we pretend those cancel out, everything else looks very good for the Suns. The betting odds for Game 6 have Portland favored by just a single point with a total of 201½. The Suns are excellent on the road at 13-6 ATS in their last 19; the Blazers are 20-22-1 ATS at the Rose Garden this year compared to 26-17-1 ATS away. Make it against winning teams, and Phoenix is 14-11 ATS on the road while Portland is 9-13 ATS at home.
One more important piece of news before this contest: Amare Stoudemire (22.69 PER) has not been suspended for throwing an elbow in Aldridge’s direction during Game 3. He’ll receive a “flagrant foul 1” instead. Two more of those and Stoudemire will indeed get a one-game suspension. Arranging some kind of Stoudemire meltdown might be Portland’s best hope if Roy doesn’t come through. Maybe get McMillan to throw salt in his eyes.
Thursday's game Tips at 10:30 p.m. (ET) on TNT, the second part of a playoff twinbill that opens with the Mavericks and Spurs in San Antonio for Game 6 of their series.