NBA Playoffs: Game 3, Lakers at Thunder

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    NBA Playoffs: Game 3, Lakers at Thunder
    NBA Playoffs: Game 3, Lakers at Thunder

    The Lakers have the 2-0 lead in their series with the Thunder, but the betting odds have been split with a win apiece. The action now shifts to Oklahoma City's Ford Center for Games 3 and 4. Kevin Durant and Company have been saddled with 3 ½-point chalk entering tonight's tilt, a spread that has increased by a bucket since opening numbers. TNT has the broadcast with the tip-off set for at 9:30 p.m. Eastern.

    Nobody said this was going to be easy.



    The Los Angeles Lakers have grabbed a quick 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. But they’ve had to work their purple and gold behinds off for it. Oklahoma City has given the defending NBA champions all they can handle, and the betting public has taken notice, making the Thunder 3 ½-point favorites with the series moving to the Ford Center for Game 3. That’s up from two points at the open.

    The Lakers might be one of the most popular franchises in all of professional sports, but nobody I know likes losing money. Los Angeles went 33-46-3 ATS this year while winning the Western Conference.

    Oklahoma City quietly made the playoffs at 48-34 ATS, and now that the Thunder have finally been given a national forum to showcase their talents, casual fans are starting to open up their wallets.

    Imagine the jam the Lakers would be in right now without Andrew Bynum. The 22-year-old phenom missed the last 13 games of the regular season with a strained Achilles tendon, but Bynum gave the Lakers 30 quality minutes in each of the first two games in this series against a difficult OKC frontcourt.

    The Thunder (+6) blocked 17 shots in Tuesday’s Game 2 and grabbed the cash in a 95-92 loss; Serge Ibaka had seven of those blocks in 28 minutes off the bench, while superstar Kevin Durant had four blocks to go with his 32 points.

    That’s the kind of defense that earned Scotty Brooks the league’s Coach of the Year honors on Wednesday. Brooks has gotten his players to buy into his system, and GM Sam Presti has given Brooks the right personnel – including assistant coach Ron Adams, who is getting some deserved attention for helping Durant develop at the defensive end. Both of these playoff games against the Lakers have gone 'under;' the total for Game 3 has fallen to 191 ½ points, down from 197 points in Game 1.

    This is where the parlay crowd will tell you about the special relationship between the underdog and the 'under.' It’s harder to cover a spread when fewer points are being scored, thus giving the underdogs-'under' parlay its value against the betting odds. This is worth keeping in mind even if you prefer single-game wagers. If the 'under' happens to be the tasty play on Thursday, then the Lakers would figure to have some value as the underdogs in this matchup.

    Check out some of these betting trends for the 'under' going into Thursday’s matchup:
    • 7-2 in the last nine meetings
    • 7-2 in L.A.’s last nine games
    • 11-2 in L.A.’s last 13 games as an underdog
    • 4-1 in Oklahoma’s last five games against winning teams

    These trends make perfect sense given the physical makeup of both teams. As strong as the Oklahoma City defense is this year, the Lakers are even stronger with the addition of Ron Artest, the 2004 Defensive Player of the Year and a man with plenty of stopping power left in the tank. With Artest’s help, Los Angeles ranked sixth in the league in defense during the regular season at 101.1 points allowed per 100 possessions.

    Oklahoma City ranked eighth at 101.6 points. Those numbers backed up what we saw in Game 2: two teams in each other’s face, all night long.

    No question the 'under' is worth a close look in this one. But the Lakers themselves? Los Angeles has been in the red all year long, burdened with the chalk of high expectations after taking the NBA title in 2009. The Lakers were 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year and 7-14 ATS on the road against winning teams (0-2 ATS at Oklahoma City). Tuesday’s performance doesn’t give us any reason to be optimistic about L.A.’s chances in Game 3, even as underdogs; the Lakers were 4-7 ATS in that role this season. Good thing they have home-court advantage.
  • jayroy25
    SBR MVP
    • 11-18-09
    • 1578

    #2
    okc is tough at home should b great game
    Comment
    • tomcast
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 06-19-06
      • 754

      #3
      I got a feeling the Lakers are going to sweep
      Comment
      • coloradobuff
        SBR MVP
        • 09-22-09
        • 1488

        #4
        okc wins tonight..will be a tight one though.
        Comment
        • Domestic
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-10-09
          • 6323

          #5
          Taking the Lakers, those ML odds are just too juicy to pass up.
          Comment
          • saintjames
            Restricted User
            • 09-19-09
            • 747

            #6
            i love the over @ 191 so much im goin all in
            Comment
            • Domestic
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-10-09
              • 6323

              #7
              Originally posted by saintjames
              i love the over @ 191 so much im goin all in
              Comment
              • jjgold
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-20-05
                • 388179

                #8
                Like Okl City here, they should win by 10.
                Comment
                • wookieehumper
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-09-09
                  • 355

                  #9
                  I'm going lakers ML here
                  Comment
                  • masr
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-20-07
                    • 4773

                    #10
                    Also on LAKERS -ML
                    Comment
                    • Buckeye
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 05-18-07
                      • 302

                      #11
                      Vegas is begging everyone to take the Lakers, I will say no more than that.
                      Comment
                      • mehow
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 698

                        #12
                        yeah, 70% of public is on lal, but line changed from +2 to +3,5. OKC -3,5 for me!
                        Comment
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