SJ55 April 6th PLAYS

**dimon** · 04-05-10, 03:41 PM

a bit early 4 tomorrow

**rvfrank** · 04-05-10, 03:57 PM

took celtics -5 as soon as the lines opened up I am also leaning towards bucks +6.

**startm** · 04-05-10, 03:58 PM

Chicago is not good

**sweetjones55** · 04-05-10, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by startm

Chicago is not good

O and Milwaukee is? You need to go checkout the results in games with Bogut out for Milwaukee. They lost by 15 at home to Philly in a game the Bucks were -10 and lost to Miami SU at home as a Bucks -2.5 favorite. Bulls are going to crush them, they are finally fully healthy and it is showing. Bucks are garbage on the road and Bulls are above average at home. I think Bulls win by 10 points.

**sweetjones55** · 04-05-10, 04:04 PM

Leaning OKC/Utah Over, it's the 3rd highest total every in this matchup. They played 3 times this year and the totals were 197, 199, 204.5. Tommrow night its 210.5? That is significantly higher. I love taking overs in situations like these, this I would definitely like to wait and see public numbers/line movement.

**mdyles1988** · 04-05-10, 04:23 PM

Celtics -5.5

**lovetogamble** · 04-05-10, 04:52 PM

Keep em coming Sweet. Good job.

**doctor_on_call** · 04-05-10, 06:24 PM

thanks for the early headsup sj55!

**ed_lupeet** · 04-05-10, 07:51 PM

Nice analysis on Mil. How many units will you play for Chi and Bos?

**migz** · 04-05-10, 08:29 PM

Line up to -6

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 07:37 AM

I was waiting on the Bulls line all day yesterday for it to come out because I just sense a blow out brewing. The line opened up at Bulls -5.5 and with the public on the Bucks at 54% the line has gone up to Bulls -6.5, a big point of RLM since it crossed over an even number.

The Bucks are going to keep struggling without Bogut. They do not have a backup at that position to come in and pick up the slack. Hence why they got beat as home favorites, a 10 point favorite once, both times without Bogut lately. All in all this yera they are 2-6 SU without him.

Let's just take a quick look at the matchups also.

Derrick Rose-Brandon Jennings.. No contest
Taj Gibson-Carlos Delfino... No contest
Luol Deng-Luc Richard... No contest
Joakim Noah-Ersan Something.. No contest
Kirk Hinrich- John Salmons.. Salmos takes it here

Chicago Bench- Brad Miller, James Johnson (playing well), Hakim Warrick, Ronald Murray

Milwaukee Bench- Luke Ridnour, Jerry Stack, Kurt Thomas, Charlie Bell, Primo Brezec, Royal Ivey (by far worst big man bench in the NBA)

Chicago Bench, Milwaukee bench.. Small advantage Bulls with two decent Bigs and a nice young SF in James Johnson who has proven he can come in and put up 15.

Milwaukee has one guy that may create mismatch problems in Salmons but the Bulls have plenty of guys, Deng in particular, that can do a decent job guarding him. It's not rocket science, Milwaukee is just too weak downlow. They got outrebounded by 10 in both games without Bogut. Hell Jermaine Oneal only played 10 minutes against the Bucks since he got hurt and they still dominated inside and won outright by 13 as a small dog.

Who is going to stop Derrick Rose from getting into the lane and who is going to stop him once he gets in there, there are ZERO shot blockers on that team? He guranteed he'd make the playoffs and he will have a MONSTER game tommrow night.

Bulls -5.5 LOCKED

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 07:42 AM

As for the Celtics play, I see this being the chicken dinner of the night. Boston is a huge public play after their big win against Cleveland and I believe they should be.The line opened at Celtics -5 and is now at -6 so the line movement looks good. This team just needed that little boost of confidence and I see them going on a tear now. The Knicks are coming off a long cross country trip and that first game is always tough off a trip like this especially playing a focused Celtics team now. The Knicks got that last win in the road trip they really wanted and I think they could honestly care less about tonights game. Remember guys Celtics have a better winning % on the road than at home, 24-15 at home and 24-13 on the road. The Knicks obviously are complete garbage, Mcgrady is doubful and Wilson Chandler has been out a while. This is the 1st game of the road trip for Boston and teams always make it a big point to get that first one.

The Celtics are the best 2nd quarter team in the NBA and a damn good 1st quarter team. They are 44-28 in the 1st and 54-20 in the 2nd quarter obviously making them a good 1H play on any given night. The Knicks on the other hand are complete garbage in the 1H, 29-41 in the 1st quarter and 26-47 in the 2nd quarter.

Celtics -5 LOCKED
Celtics -3.5 1H LOCKED

**fly fisher** · 04-06-10, 09:37 AM

I hate going against Paco and LB, but I am with you on this one SJ. Bulls play pretty good at home too.

What do you think about Utah, I just don't see them loosing at home to OKC no matter how good OKC might be. Jazz have been killing people at home both good and bad teams. I am going with the Jazz unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Good luck today

**kobefanatic** · 04-06-10, 10:22 AM

sweet you like the over on the bulls game? no bogut means less defense rose may go off tomorrow considering no bogut inside

**migz** · 04-06-10, 10:30 AM

CELTICS

**napalmrain** · 04-06-10, 10:32 AM

Good work Sweetjones! Keep it up...

P.S Does anybody know where I can find spreads/odds for previous meetings?

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 10:52 AM

Covers.com napal

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by dimon

a bit early 4 tomorrow

LOL this is why I put them in "a bit early". Celtics are now -7.5, 2.5 points line movement and Bulls are up to -6, has been flipflopping to -6.5.

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 11:53 AM

SA/SAC Under 193 LOCKED

Spurs and Kings have played three times this year and total was over 200 each game. Vegas reacts to these two teams killing these overs by giving the lowest total all year of 193?? Sacramento has been a disaster going under eight times in their last 8 games. Expect more of the same tonight.

**Premierr23** · 04-06-10, 12:52 PM

SJ do you like Cavs 1st Q -1.5?
thanks

**thechaoz** · 04-06-10, 01:01 PM

Awesome SJ, Let's keep this gravy train rollin. I laid off the big game last night but have no qualms about it. Too bad butler couldn't pull through.

**lovetogamble** · 04-06-10, 02:09 PM

Got in on the Bulls @ -5.5. Celtics to rich for me @ -8

**QUEST001** · 04-06-10, 02:15 PM

Gl on the plays SJ.. Im on Boston heavy...Bulls as well...

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 02:56 PM

I don't like cavs 1q at all.

**lakerboy** · 04-06-10, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by fly fisher

I hate going against Paco and LB, but I am with you on this one SJ. Bulls play pretty good at home too.

What do you think about Utah, I just don't see them loosing at home to OKC no matter how good OKC might be. Jazz have been killing people at home both good and bad teams. I am going with the Jazz unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Good luck today

I havent made one play yet today.

**fly fisher** · 04-06-10, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I havent made one play yet today.

Okay, I jumped the gun. LB has been discussing plays and hasn't posted anything yet. My bad to imply that. so far it is just disussions and leans.

I do like Chicago though.

**vanc** · 04-06-10, 04:12 PM

Taking the Bulls too. They are playing for 8th spot, they need some wins.

**Goat Milk** · 04-06-10, 05:23 PM

Tajj Gibson better than Delfino, ya right...

Delfino will prolly guard Deng. Illisova or w/e will guard gibson.

Kurt Thomas will probably start at center

**rvfrank** · 04-06-10, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

I havent made one play yet today.

Didn't you make OKC +5.5 today?

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Premierr23

SJ do you like Cavs 1st Q -1.5?
thanks

Premierr reason I say I don't like Cavs 1Q -1.5 is because usually Cavs get inflated lines and this one is highly delfated. It's like Vegas is asking you to please take Cleveland and think "oo nice I can take the Cavs and if they win by one bucket I win". It just seems too easy. Also I don't know LeBrons status tonight but he is crucial to the Cavs 1st quarter dominance. He is the best 1st quarter player in the NBA the last 3 years bar none.

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Tajj Gibson better than Delfino, ya right...

Delfino will prolly guard Deng. Illisova or w/e will guard gibson.

Kurt Thomas will probably start at center

Noah will dominate Kurt Thomas at center. If you are right, Delfino has no shot in the world at holding down Deng.

Do you really want to compare Delfino and Taj Gibson because you are so far off here it is not even funny. The guy is a double double machine. Post AllStar game Taj Gibson is averaging 11 points and 10 rebounds on 55% shooting in only 30 minutes! This guy is one of the most effective players in the NBA right now. Post all star game Delfino is averaging 12 points and 6 reboounds on 40% shooting in 35 minutes. Let's look at Taj Gibsons numbers the last 10 games.

14 points 15 rebounds
14 points 16 rebounds
14 points 10 rebounds
9 points 10 rebounds
22 points 13 rebounds
10 points 12 rebounds
12 points 10 rebounds
7 points 7 rebounds
20 points 17 rebounds.

**BennyFang** · 04-06-10, 07:09 PM

celtics

**sweetjones55** · 04-06-10, 08:10 PM

The Bulls beat themselves in the 1st half committing 12 turnovers in the 1st half which has to be a high for them for 1H this year. They only scored 9 points in the 2nd quarter, just pathetic.

**tealish** · 04-06-10, 08:13 PM

9 points a quarter is sad, but combined with 14 from MIL in the 1st, it bodes well for the under