Late money question

**jureslo** · 03-25-10, 04:50 PM

Something about line movement at end.

If you see a lot of money on team A, this is probably better bet.

**Intangible** · 03-25-10, 04:51 PM

To my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong), the late bettors want to gather all the information there is about a game before placing the bet. They'll watch out for game-time player decisions and line movements throughout the day, so that's why they place their bets right before tip-off.

**t-wizzle** · 03-25-10, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by bygspenda

This question may have been answered many times before so please forgive. Just wondering, why is it that the 'sharpest' bets come in at the death? What good reason do they have to leave their move to the very last second?

I could be wrong but I would say it's because they know more than we do. A common expression is "late money is smart money." Whether it is injuries or something else, late money knows more; it's smart money.

**elynch** · 03-25-10, 04:58 PM

They want to see which way the line is moving before they throw down their bet

**Mikail** · 03-25-10, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by Intangible

To my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong), the late bettors want to gather all the information there is about a game before placing the bet. They'll watch out for game-time player decisions and line movements throughout the day, so that's why they place their bets right before tip-off.

All answers in this thread sound right. This one in particular sounds the best to me.

**bygspenda** · 03-25-10, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by elynch

They want to see which way the line is moving before they throw down their bet

Does it really matter which way the line is moving, since their mind is clearly set on which is the better team anyway?

**tavinator13** · 03-25-10, 05:03 PM

The more time between when you place your bet and the actual game = more possible variance (and thus a less informed bet). Unlike other investments you're not getting compensated for this added risk, so its smartest to wait until the end to place your bets. Having said that I think you can sometimes find faulty early lines, and if you know what to look for you can capitalize on this (thats a big IF however).

**Mikail** · 03-25-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by bygspenda

Does it really matter which way the line is moving, since their mind is clearly set on which is the better team anyway?

if the line movement is going in your favor then that tells you the betting public agrees that your pick is a good pick. Doesn't nessessarily mean that it wins though. 'steam'

**jureslo** · 03-25-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by bygspenda

Does it really matter which way the line is moving, since their mind is clearly set on which is the better team anyway?

It matters. Open and close money are very important.

One of rules I follow: if I bet on game near tip off and line movement at end goes aganst my bet I stay away from this game.

This rule saved me a lot of money.

**GroundnPound** · 03-25-10, 05:06 PM

Just worth a note I put a 1000 on the lakers last night. The line was about $1.91 at pinny when I did this 10mins before tip off. THen about 5mins before tip off Lakers went to about $1.99. Lakers moved 10 cents. Meaning missed out on about a 100. Lakers ended up winning too even though they moved unfavourably late.

**tavinator13** · 03-25-10, 05:06 PM

yes it does matter because depending upon how the line moves relative to the percentage of public on a given side can give a bettor clues as to what the books think is going to happen. If they are more or less reluctant to move a line with or against heavy public can tell us alot about how they feel about a particular game.

**bygspenda** · 03-25-10, 05:09 PM

Ok. Think I got the idea now. Thanks everyone for your input

**Chi_archie** · 03-25-10, 05:12 PM

solid thread here....