Key's Line & POD Sunday, 5-0 On This Site

**greva** · 03-14-10, 09:03 AM

great work looking forward to your play

**Gopi-1** · 03-14-10, 11:58 AM

Thnx Key! Btw, does your system take into account that both AK47 and Okur are NOT playing today for the Jazz? Keep up the great work!

**QUEST001** · 03-14-10, 12:31 PM

Keep up the good work Key....I already liked portland as a solid play today..now with your post I'll increase the units..GL

**KeyElement** · 03-14-10, 01:47 PM

Jazz +3.5 at Thunder

It looks like I have some pretty good numbers involving both these teams. The total opened at 205 but has dropped to 204 at many locales and may be headed for the 203 I posted this morning. I feel good about my numbers after calling the Jazz almost right on the button at Milwaukee Friday night and staying away from Thunder games. I stayed away from a lot of Thunder games not because they were unplayable but because they looked vulnerable. In other words, they looked good versus the spread or total but there was plenty of room for error. When the Nets pushed them to the limit and came back with another strong performance at Houston last night it exposed some of the suspicions I had about the Thunder. Don't get me wrong, They are still a very good team that will win the majority of their remaining 18 games and secure a nice 4 or 5 seeding in the playoffs. The best way to describe the Thunder's vulnerability may be to say that they have been winning, but underachieving, versus a relatively weak schedule and 6 of their last 10 games at home. Certain numbers should be better.

The Jazz simply ran into a buzz saw at Milwaukee Friday night. The handicap I gave you called for them to score 89 points and fell just 2 short at 87, but much of my handicap for the Bucks win and under was based on the Bucks defense and obviously I had that wired. The Jazz can, and should, bounce back tonight versus a Thunder defense surrendering 99 ppg, their last 10, not the unreal low the Bucks were setting Friday night at 85.3 ppg. last 10. I also stated that the Bucks had an unusually high HCA at 4.2, considering he quality of the opposition, but the Thunder tonight enjoy only a 1.2 point HCA. I said HCA is just another variable dependent on other factors and I will stand by that. I won't describe how I determine that, that kind of formula is solely mine and strictly proprietary.

We wouldn't want to do a handicap without visiting he Sagarin Ratings so I will just mention that even his world famous Predictor says the the Thunder should only be -1. Good enough for support but my numbers are probably stronger.

I sort of thought patience was called for here and the public or sharps or whoever would push the line up, and that has proven to be the case. The opener of 1.5 has been pumped up to 3.5 so some of our guys may be able to scream "FIX" later on but hat their thing, not mine. What I have been out to do is achieve a closing line value of 0. I want to catch the points at the absolute peak, since I already committed to playing the Jazz.

Why not Portland? The handicap is solid but several other factors enter into play. The Raptor's bags are packed and on the bus for the trip to the airport and the flight home after a disappointing road trip (thanks for the money). They could be totally flat, which the handicap indicates, or they could give it one more heroic effort, as they did at L.A. versus the Lakers. The Lakers and Trailblazers were the highlights of this trip and an extended effort could result in a cover, possibly via the back door, should the Trailblazers get too comfortable with a big lead. There is also the fact I hate laying points or odds in professional sports anyway, and big points, even if not double digits, are just asking for trouble.

**KeyElement** · 03-14-10, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by Gopi-1

Thnx Key! Btw, does your system take into account that both AK47 and Okur are NOT playing today for the Jazz? Keep up the great work!

I have allowed for that and also Harden for OKC. I still like it. Some day we will get into my theories on when missing starters impact a team and when the team can cover for them.

**mehow** · 03-14-10, 02:38 PM

hey,key will you play portland -8,5 pick?

**balls2wall** · 03-14-10, 02:45 PM

thanks for the write up K E

good luck

**KeyElement** · 03-14-10, 04:28 PM

Mehow - lot of intangibles in that game I just scratched the surface of. Probably not going to play.

**kingofgamble** · 03-14-10, 04:32 PM

very nice write up

**sammy94** · 03-14-10, 04:42 PM

What do you think about your picks with the spreads right now?
Do you still like Miami -6.5 and Magic -8.5?

**Sheep** · 03-14-10, 04:58 PM

Milwaukee, -12.5, 194

or 203

**shantystar** · 03-14-10, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Sheep

Milwaukee, -12.5, 194

or 203

GL.

**Wilforth** · 03-14-10, 05:43 PM

Great analysis!