Computer generated line for comparison to yours.
Philadelphia, +1, 193.5
Miami, -8.5, 196
Detroit, +5, 202
Boston, -3.5, 194
Minnesota, +7, 216
Oklahoma, -7, 211.5
Dallas, -8.5, 201.5
San Antonio, -9.5, 208
Sacramento, -4, 209.5
Sacramento Kings +2 over Toronto Raptors
Perception is the key word, always. Perception of the betting public, sharps, books, just everything that goes into making a bettable, but profitable, line for the books. Overall he Raptors are considered the better team and just gave the Lakers a darn good battle in L.A. last night. That creates a perception of a pretty decent team. Examine the real evidence. The Lakers themselves are not playing their best ball right now and not covering for their backers either. It is not that the Lakers won't be there at playoff time, but they established that at the start of the season. Lead the division, lead the conference, secure the #1 seed, go on cruise control. The Lakers have a coach and roster that can do that, the best in the league. So, over the course of their last 20 they are 13-7 SU, but just 7-11-2 ATS. Long story short, they just didn't give the Raptors their best effort last night and that creates the perception, and nothing more, that the Raptors gave the reigning champs a hell of a game.
Now let's revert to the always useful Sagarin Ratings. If you ignore the power ratings and use the correct information available Sagarin's work is quite helpful. The Raptors are listed as 18th, with only 4 wins versus his top ten (4-17) and 10 versus the top 16 (10-24). Those are the winners, with the exception of Charlotte at 31-31. So the Raptors beat good teams at a 19% clip and winning teams at a 29% clip. Does that sound like a team that should be laying points on the road? We can also use those same rankings to see that by being in a weak divsion, in a weak conference, the Raptors have played the 21st weakest schedule in the league, while the Kings have played the best, #1, by being in the Pacific Division of the Western Conference. Even so the Kings are 5-20 versus the top ten, 20%, and 8-30 versus the top 16, 21%. The Raptors may make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (currently 6th) and the Kings stand no chance whatsoever in the Western Conference (currently 13th), but who really is the better team with the better prospectus? And again, should the Raptors be laying points on the road? False favorite, take the points.
The truly great part about using the Sagarin Ratings to show why my pick makes sense is that I can make a case everyone understands while revealing nothing of my formulas, which are proprietary and not for distribution. In case anyone was going to ask: All my data is independently tracked, entered, and weighted to determine the numbers I issue and play. Sagarin Ratings are merely used to make a case. Occasionally I find something there or elsewhere I find confusing and it can negate a play, but never are the recommended plays based on anything but my own work, As always, BOL, Key.
Philadelphia, +1, 193.5
Miami, -8.5, 196
Detroit, +5, 202
Boston, -3.5, 194
Minnesota, +7, 216
Oklahoma, -7, 211.5
Dallas, -8.5, 201.5
San Antonio, -9.5, 208
Sacramento, -4, 209.5
Sacramento Kings +2 over Toronto Raptors
Perception is the key word, always. Perception of the betting public, sharps, books, just everything that goes into making a bettable, but profitable, line for the books. Overall he Raptors are considered the better team and just gave the Lakers a darn good battle in L.A. last night. That creates a perception of a pretty decent team. Examine the real evidence. The Lakers themselves are not playing their best ball right now and not covering for their backers either. It is not that the Lakers won't be there at playoff time, but they established that at the start of the season. Lead the division, lead the conference, secure the #1 seed, go on cruise control. The Lakers have a coach and roster that can do that, the best in the league. So, over the course of their last 20 they are 13-7 SU, but just 7-11-2 ATS. Long story short, they just didn't give the Raptors their best effort last night and that creates the perception, and nothing more, that the Raptors gave the reigning champs a hell of a game.
Now let's revert to the always useful Sagarin Ratings. If you ignore the power ratings and use the correct information available Sagarin's work is quite helpful. The Raptors are listed as 18th, with only 4 wins versus his top ten (4-17) and 10 versus the top 16 (10-24). Those are the winners, with the exception of Charlotte at 31-31. So the Raptors beat good teams at a 19% clip and winning teams at a 29% clip. Does that sound like a team that should be laying points on the road? We can also use those same rankings to see that by being in a weak divsion, in a weak conference, the Raptors have played the 21st weakest schedule in the league, while the Kings have played the best, #1, by being in the Pacific Division of the Western Conference. Even so the Kings are 5-20 versus the top ten, 20%, and 8-30 versus the top 16, 21%. The Raptors may make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference (currently 6th) and the Kings stand no chance whatsoever in the Western Conference (currently 13th), but who really is the better team with the better prospectus? And again, should the Raptors be laying points on the road? False favorite, take the points.
The truly great part about using the Sagarin Ratings to show why my pick makes sense is that I can make a case everyone understands while revealing nothing of my formulas, which are proprietary and not for distribution. In case anyone was going to ask: All my data is independently tracked, entered, and weighted to determine the numbers I issue and play. Sagarin Ratings are merely used to make a case. Occasionally I find something there or elsewhere I find confusing and it can negate a play, but never are the recommended plays based on anything but my own work, As always, BOL, Key.
another great night!