NBA - Saturday, 2/20/16

**jjgold** · 02-20-16, 10:30 AM

Bad play

Knicks in a tailspin and on road back to back

**Don_Omarion** · 02-20-16, 10:31 AM

both teams can not be trusted , flip-coin game but wish they do it for you

**R.P. McMurphy** · 02-20-16, 10:38 AM

What # do you have for total in Nyk gm Lt? Guessing you lean over if you like NYK depending on which team shows up. Just don't see much defense in this crapfest and total on fast rise. Bol!

**LT Profits** · 02-20-16, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by Don_Omarion

both teams can not be trusted , flip-coin game but wish they do it for you

Nothing wrong with getting + odds on coin flip. And I agree, model has it close to Pick, Minny -0.02

**lakerboy** · 02-20-16, 10:51 AM

Books like minny.

**LT Profits** · 02-20-16, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy

What # do you have for total in Nyk gm Lt? Guessing you lean over if you like NYK depending on which team shows up. Just don't see much defense in this crapfest and total on fast rise. Bol!

Too Close, 207.51

**exlusive123** · 02-20-16, 10:52 AM

I like NYK too, but I don't have much confidence in Rambis, he might be worse than Fisher if possible. Nice run lately

**R.P. McMurphy** · 02-20-16, 10:59 AM

Damn early bird got worm on that over 204.5. Thanks for info and bol!

**LT Profits** · 02-20-16, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy

Damn early bird got worm on that over 204.5. Thanks for info and bol!

Yeah I wasn't awake for that.

I woke up to 207.

**Don_Omarion** · 02-20-16, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Nothing wrong with getting + odds on coin flip. And I agree, model has it close to Pick, Minny -0.02

sure LT , hope again they do it for you .. to me I do not like those kind of games at all . but best luck

do you have any input for GSW ML or HEAT ML ???

**jjgold** · 02-20-16, 11:25 AM

Minny will close -120 or so

**RavensFan2k3** · 02-20-16, 01:59 PM

On Minnesota

**KVB** · 02-20-16, 03:04 PM

I agree that getting +108 for a coin flip game is a good deal but I’m not so sure this game comes out to a coin flip.

As always, let me first say that there are many ways to handicap and edges can be found from different stats. Relatively unsophisticated models give Minnesota a win by a basket or so with a total close to the open of 204 or 205.

As we get more sophisticated however, forecasts, including my own, give Minnesota as much as a 6 point win with totals closer to 207 or 208, where the total stands now.

As far as analyzing this line and the money behind it I can say that there is strong support, from different levels of sophistication for the Knicks from a range of bettors and that support is showing itself in the moneyline bet.

This is in part why JJ may be correct in saying it could hit 120.

The books have split some market moving groups and the money here to a certain extent but I believe, as far as the spread is concerned, they are not showing the true value of the favorite, similar to the Superbowl.

I can recognize the native support for the Knicks but my metrics also indicate that the books and the markets are trying very hard to round up a wide variety of Knicks bettors. In the give and take markets of the NBA perhaps it’s their day.

There is indication from my end that it is not. Should the spread drop below 2 points I would likely pick up the adjusted Minnesota moneyline here.

Good Luck.

**KVB** · 02-20-16, 03:12 PM

It's interesting that LT's forecast has the closer game with the higher total for the NY/Minny game.

I believe yout total projection is pretty good for this game LT and we did see it in the movement. I have Minnesota winning by 6 points with a higher total of 208.5.

The lower side with the higher total movement is an excellent example of the markets adding uncertainty to an otherwise decent two pick parlay on the opening line.

I would guess we'll either see Minnesota and the Under OR the Knicks and the Over.

**dect6.0** · 02-21-16, 07:38 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

Bad play

Knicks in a tailspin and on road back to back

which mod had control of the jjgold account during their shift and posted this?

**relax_urself** · 02-21-16, 10:33 AM

Nice play on the Knicks ML. That was my first selection but I felt more confident on the over...S M H