Pacers vs Cavaliers Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 05-05-25, 07:44 AM

The Pacers steal Game 1 in Cleveland 121-112 .

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Cavaliers -210 / Pacers +170

**SBR Andy** · 05-06-25, 12:21 PM

Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2 player prop picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Donovan Mitchell Over 28.5 points (-109 BetRivers)

"Despite the Game 1 loss to Indiana, the Cavaliers still boast the third-shortest NBA championship odds thanks to an offense that finished No. 1 in points per game (121.9) and rating (121.7) during the regular season behind the play of Mitchell.

The six-time All-Star shooter managed to finish with 33 points amid defeat despite going 1-for-11 from deep.

That's all because NBA Coach of the Year Kenny Atkinson's offense relies so heavily on Mitchell, who was given a jaw-dropping 42.5% usage rate in Game 1 while taking 30 shots from the floor and nine from the free-throw line.

Mitchell's usage was through the roof (30.9%) even during the first-round sweep of the Miami Heat, so look for his volume to be the key for him hitting this Over."

Tyrese Haliburton Over 10.5 assists (+110 bet365)

"It's pretty clear Tyrese Haliburton took getting voted the most overrated player in the NBA personally after how he handled the Milwaukee Bucks and the show he put on in Game 1 against the Cavaliers. After finishing third in the NBA in assists per game during the regular season (9.2), Haliburton leads the postseason (11.8) with 2.2 more per game than the next most (Nikola Jokic).

Coming off a 13-apple outing in the series opener against the Cavs, and having gone Over 10.5 assists in four of six playoff games so far, there's no reason to think he won't rack up at least 11 tonight.

Cleveland's defense ranked outside the top 10 in points allowed per game (112.4), 2-pointers allowed (27.8), and 3-point percentage allowed (35.9%) during the regular season, so Haliburton shouldn't have too hard of a time setting up teammates."

Myles Turner Under 14.5 points (-120 BetMGM)

"One Pacers player who won't enjoy an easy time scoring is Myles Turner, who finished with just 13 points in Game 1. Turner will need to do battle with one of the most physical frontcourt duos in the NBA when facing Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and big man Jarrett Allen, both of whom ranked top 16 in the NBA in defensive win shares this season.

With those two both capable of protecting the rim and closing out on the perimeter, Turner should struggle to make a major impact as a scorer. We already saw him need to deal with this defense in the regular season, and it didn't go well. Turner averaged just 13.5 points per game and shot 31.3% from behind the arc over four regular-season games against the Cavs."

**SBR Andy** · 05-06-25, 12:54 PM

Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 2 prediction from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Cavaliers -8.5 (-115 ESPN BET)

"Cleveland was scorching to start the playoffs while sweeping the Miami Heat, averaging a 30.5-point margin of victory. The Cavaliers covered an 8.5-point spread in all four outings, showcasing their prowess at both ends of the floor under NBA Coach of the Year odds winner Kenny Atkinson.

The Pacers have been tough opponents for Cleveland this year, with the latter winning just once against Indiana. However, the lone win featured the NBA's best ATS team (55-36-1) notching a double-digit triumph.

We're betting on the Cavaliers to get their revenge tonight."

**SBR Andy** · 05-07-25, 07:28 AM

The Pacers stun the Cavs and steal Game 2 on the road to go up 2-0 in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Pacers -205 / Cavaliers +175

**SBR Andy** · 05-09-25, 08:55 AM

Cavaliers vs Pacers Game 3 prediction from SBR's Mike Spector:

Cavaliers -2 (-112 DraftKings)

"Since 1997-98, playoff teams are just 3-1,640 when facing a seven-plus-point deficit in the final minute of the fourth quarter or overtime, according to ESPN research. Shockingly, Indiana owns two of those wins from this postseason, including the come-from-behind victory in Game 2.

The Cavaliers are the first 60-win team to face a 2-0 series deficit before the NBA Finals since 2017. But I expect them to make this a series with a Game 3 triumph and cover, and I'm getting out ahead of potential positive injury news if any of Darius Garland (toe), Evan Mobley (ankle), or De’Andre Hunter (thumb) are declared active.

Indiana ranked 24th in defensive rating during the regular season last year, and it was the fourth-worst playoff team by that metric. Thus, there's a path to another significant day offensively for Cleveland, with Donovan Mitchell leading the way.

Mitchell recorded 48 points and nine assists in Game 2 while scoring or assisting on 61% of Cleveland’s points. And Cleveland can draw on the fact that it once again enjoyed the advantage in turnovers, points in the paint, second-chance points, and the team reached the rim more frequently than Indiana.

I'm banking on some regression from Indiana, which shot 39.3% from 3-point range in Game 2 after averaging 35.8% from beyond the arc during the regular season. Additionally, the Cavaliers aren't likely to shoot under 30% from 3-point range for the third straight game. They shot that poorly just 10 times during the regular season.

With two days off between Games 2 and 3, I'm optimistic the Cavaliers can get one of their three injured players back."

**SBR Andy** · 05-09-25, 09:05 AM

Cavaliers vs Pacers Game 3 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Andrew Nembhard Over 13.5 points (+100 FanDuel)

"The term "playoff riser" was invented for players like Nembhard. The Indiana guard has averaged 15.9 points per game - up from 10 PPG during the regular season - in the playoffs, clearing this total in five of his seven postseason appearances. He's shown incredible consistency, so we're backing him at a great price (+100)."

Max Strus Over 5.5 rebounds (+102 FanDuel)

"Indiana (No. 28 in team rebounding) has done well crashing the glass against Cleveland (No. 12) in this series. However, one of the Cavaliers' bright spots has been Strus, who has 15 rebounds in this series. He's gone Over this total in three of his last four, including the last two, so we'll back him to grab six-plus boards again tonight."

**SBR Andy** · 05-13-25, 09:38 AM

The Cavs win Game 3 but the Pacers dominate Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Pacers -340 / Cavaliers +275

**SBR Andy** · 05-13-25, 09:40 AM

Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 5 player prop picks from SBR's Mike Spector:

Evan Mobley Over 10.5 rebounds (-106 FanDuel)

"Not much went right for Evan Mobley and the Cavaliers in Game 4, except that they still outrebounded the Pacers 41-37 despite Indiana shooting a blistering 52.7% from the field.

While Indiana was plus-1 in rebounds across Games 1 and 2, it produced a minus-19 in Game 3, and the team allowed 14 more offensive rebounds than it secured. Mobley and Jarrett Allen combined for half of the team’s offensive rebounds, and I expect Cleveland will use its frontcourt size advantage in this game to take the load off the banged-up Donovan Mitchell.

Mobley has only gone over this projected total once in seven playoff games thus far, but he's grabbed 10-plus rebounds in both contests when the forward has played 35-plus minutes. I expect Mobley to play more minutes than usual with Cleveland's season on the line, resulting in him exceeding this total."

Andrew Nembhard Under 11.5 points (-104 FanDuel)

"Andrew Nembhard was averaging 15.1 points through Indiana’s first eight playoff games before his seven-point performance in Game 4. That lofty point total was the result of some lights-out shooting that I don't expect to continue on the road against a desperate Cavaliers team (49% from the field, 50% from deep).

Indiana’s balance is a significant reason for liking this Under. All Pacers starters were averaging between 15 and 17 points per game in this series entering Game 4. This is solid value on the Under too, as Nembhard averaged 10.3 points per contest on the road this season while shooting just 29.1% from 3-point range. "

Myles Turner Under 1.5 3-pointers (+130 Caesars)

"Myles Turner is shooting a blistering 57.1% from distance in this series, and he's coming off a perfect 4-for-4 3-point shooting night in Game 4. But Cleveland has also limited Turner to one or fewer 3-pointers in two of the four games during this series. Those contests are also two of the outings when both Mobley and Allen were healthy enough to provide more defensive versatility.

The Pacers scored 80 points in the first half during Game 4 (the most points the Cavaliers allowed in any half this season) while outscoring Cleveland 30-6 in the paint. If they put as much emphasis on attacking the rim and scoring inside as the team did in that half, this play will look great at plus-money odds.

Turner’s Under 3-pointers made comes with as high as a 45.45% implied probability based on BetMGM’s +120 odds, so this is a great price by comparison."

**SBR Andy** · 05-14-25, 08:27 AM

The Pacers close out the Cavs in just 5 games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Updated odds for Indiana to win the NBA Finals via DraftKings: +600