Clippers vs Nuggets Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 04-18-25, 10:12 AM

Clippers vs Nuggets Game 1 predictions from SBR's Phil Wood:

Nuggets ML (-135 bet365)

"Rather than taking a risk with the spread, the best bet for this game is to take the Nuggets to win outright. Though Denver wasn't dominant at home, it did finish 26-15 at Ball Arena. Meanwhile, Los Angeles finished below .500 on the road, the second-worst road record of the top eight teams in the Western Conference.

The price for this wager isn’t too expensive either. Some sportsbooks have this price listed higher than -145, but the -135 being offered at bet365 provides great value. There hasn’t been overwhelming support for the Nuggets, so you may be able to wait this out and get an even better price closer to tipoff."

Under 225.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"Two of the four meetings between these two teams exceeded this total, while the other two meetings fell comfortably below this line. Because the Clippers have scored just 201 combined points in their last two meetings against the Nuggets, I’ll lean Under for Saturday’s game.

Despite allowing 116.9 points per game, the Nuggets have held the Clippers to 109 or fewer in three of their four meetings. And while Denver boasts the third-highest scoring offense in the league, Los Angeles has one of the best scoring defenses. Even if the Nuggets blow the Clippers out, both teams won’t score at a high rate."

**BHExchange** · 04-18-25, 03:29 PM

Take Nuggets first quarter/first half; this is the most top heavy team of the remaining 18. If they fold, it won't be early in the opening game at altitude...if they happen to lose GM1, double up on Nuggets 1Q/1H in GM2

**SBR Andy** · 04-20-25, 10:48 AM

Denver comes back to win Game 1 in overtime 112-110.

Updated series odds at DraftKings: Nuggets -155 / Clippers +130

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 11:12 AM

Clippers vs Nuggets Game 2 prediction from SBR's Phil Wood:

Under 218.5 (-108 FanDuel)

"If Game 1 hadn’t gone to overtime, then the Under would have hit by over 20 points. The Nuggets and Clippers ended regulation tied 98-98, and even after scoring 26 points in the extra five minutes, these two teams barely went over 218.5 points.

This type of low-scoring contest has been the norm in meetings between these two teams this season, as the Clippers have scored more than 109 points in regulation in just one game against the Nuggets. And while the Nuggets have scored at least 120 in three of the five meetings, they struggled significantly against a stout Clippers’ defense in Game 1.

Even after their impressive performance in Game 1, the Clippers shouldn’t be favored in this game. They’ve lost three consecutive games in Denver, and two of those three losses were by at least 22 points. Still, I’ll stay away from this spread and moneyline, because the Clippers did enough in the first half of Saturday’s game to warrant respect. That makes the Under easily the best play of this game."

Ivica Zubac Under 17.5 points (-110 DraftKings)

"Zubac scored 21 points in Game 1, his best performance against the Nuggets since scoring 24 on Oct. 26. Not only was the performance over his season average, but it was also significantly more than he scored in the three other games he played against the Nuggets this season. In those three games, he combined for just 29 points, failing to score more than 13 in any of them.

Zubac scored just 4 points in the fourth quarter and overtime, as the Clippers’ playmakers took over and the Nuggets’ interior defense tightened up. The fact that he scored so little over the final 17 minutes of the game makes it seem as though the Nuggets figured something out against him, and I expect that to carry over into tonight’s contest.

FanDuel and Caesars are each asking -118 for this Under, but DraftKings is asking -110, as it’s the only of our best sports betting apps with the Over comfortably favored. The other sportsbooks being so wary of favoring the Over, despite what Zubac did on Saturday, makes me think that oddsmakers are expecting him to fall back to his average tonight."

**SBR Andy** · 04-21-25, 11:14 AM

Clippers vs Nuggets Game 2 player prop picks from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Aaron Gordon Over 4.5 rebounds (-130 bet365)

"Gordon collected eight rebounds in Saturday’s win over the Clippers. More importantly, he played 46 minutes in a game that highlighted Denver's lack of depth on the bench.

If he plays more than 40 minutes again, this rebound line is too low. He averaged 4.8 rebounds per game during the regular season, surpassing this mark in three consecutive games leading up to Monday."

Michael Porter Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (-150 bet365)

"Porter Jr. was the only Denver starter with a minimal role over the weekend. He played 26 minutes and finished with three points and four rebounds. After the game, the Nuggets were asked about getting him more involved.

I expect Porter to be ready on Monday, providing a nice discount on an excellent shooter. He averaged 2.5 made 3-pointers per game this season, shooting 39.5% from long range. There is a reason why FanDuel has the same prop at -170."

Ivica Zubac Over 17.5 points (-110 BetMGM)

"Zubac scored 21 points on 10-of-15 shooting in the opener, as the Nuggets didn’t have much of an answer for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Clippers respond by feeding him more on Monday.

The center has scored 20-plus points in five of his past six games. He averaged 19.9 points per game in April. He can exploit a poor Denver defense in Game 2."

**SBR Andy** · 04-22-25, 10:18 AM

Kawhi slams the door shut and the Clippers steal Game 2, 105-102.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Clippers -165 / Nuggets +140

**SBR Andy** · 04-28-25, 09:35 AM

The Nuggets won on a buzzer beater in Game 4 to tie the series at 2-2.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Clippers -160 / Nuggets +135

**SBR Andy** · 04-29-25, 12:02 PM

Clippers vs Nuggets Game 5 prediction from SBR's Brendan Schaeffer:

Under 208.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"These scores have been so tight that any read on this slim point spread is hard to come by. The Nuggets are at home for Game 5, but they needed overtime in Game 1 and a buzzer-beater in Game 4 to secure their two wins of the series.

Given no team in this series has won back-to-back games, it seems like it might be Los Angeles’s turn - but for our best bet, we’re leaning into the value we see on the Under.

Each of the first four games of the series has ended with regulation in a point total below 208.5 points, with three of the four games concluding with 200 or fewer total points. Game 1 went Over due to the 26 points scored in overtime.

Although Denver home games trended Over during the season, road games for the Clippers went just 19-23-1 on the Over for the fourth-lowest rate in the league. We’ve also seen line movement in our favor at our best sports betting sites after this total opened at 207.5."

**SBR Andy** · 04-29-25, 01:39 PM

Clippers vs Nuggets Game 5 player prop picks from SBR's Gabe Henderson:

Nikola Jokic Under 51.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-110 BetMGM)

"Jokic was the standout performer in Denver's Game 4 win over Los Angeles. The three-time MVP tallied 36 points, 21 rebounds, and eight assists on the night, leading the Nuggets to a series-tying victory.

However, this has led to a significant increase in his betting totals ahead of Game 5.

Jokic's points + rebounds + assists total jumped from O/U 49.5 before Game 4 to O/U 51.5 ahead of tonight's contest. While it's understandable following a stellar showing in his last outing, it's a bit rich for our taste.

Jokic has gone Under this total in every other game this series, so we'll fade the Joker and the public here.

We recommend this play at three-star confidence, solely because you're playing a dangerous game when fading the Association's statistical anomaly. BetMGM offers the most favorable odds of our best sports betting apps at standard juice (-110)."

James Harden Over 1.5 steals (+135 bet365)

"While Harden isn't known for his stellar defense, we're targeting his steals prop as one of our favorite plays for Game 5.

"The Beard" has tallied two or more takeaways in four of his last seven appearances, including Game 4. He only has three steals in this series, but the hope is he'll be more aggressive on that end of the floor in a pivotal game.

Furthermore, Jamal Murray and Jokic are tied for fourth with the most postseason turnovers (3.3 per game), and Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon also average more than two per game. This is all to say the opportunities will present themselves in some form or fashion.

This is a three-star play as the plus-money odds imply a 42.55% probability that Harden goes Over this total."

Jamal Murray Over 21.5 points (-105 BetMGM)

"Murray was unusually quiet in the Game 4 win, notching just 13 points on 5-of-17 shooting from the field. This marks just the second time he's gone Under 21.5 points in the series.

However, there are reasons to be optimistic heading into tonight's decisive duel from Denver.

The veteran guard's shooting percentages are higher at Ball Arena (47.6% FG, 41.1% 3PT, 89.8% FT) than away from home (47.2% FG, 37.5% 3PT, 87.3% FT). Murray's been a reliable scoring presence for the Nuggets over the years, so they'll turn to him again tonight to aid Jokic."

Expect him to answer the call for a third time in five games."

**SBR Andy** · 04-30-25, 08:37 AM

The Nuggets win Game 5 by a score of 131-115 to go up 3-2 in the series.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Nuggets -180 / Clippers +150

**SBR Andy** · 05-01-25, 10:56 AM

Nuggets vs Clippers Game 6 prediction from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Nuggets +6.5 (-105 bet365)

"NBA bettors love to utilize the zig-zag theory in the playoffs, which means betting on a team coming off a loss (or fading a team off a win). That’s why the market will adjust more than expected on betting lines in the postseason.

The Clippers are 6.5-point favorites in Game 6, but they were laying -5.5 in a home Game 3 last week. I expect Thursday’s spread to climb a bit higher, too, as some occasional +7 spreads are popping up. As such, it might be worth waiting for a better number.

While the zig-zag theory makes sense, particularly since the Nuggets have no depth, this series has been too competitive to lay that many points. Denver covered a 6.5-point spread in its 101-99 win in Game 4.

In the eight head-to-head meetings this year, the favorite has covered a spread of more than two possessions just once. Three of the five games in this series have been decided by one possession.

I’ll take the points out of respect for Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets."

**SBR Andy** · 05-01-25, 10:58 AM

Nuggets vs Clippers Game 6 player prop picks from SBR's Phil Wood:

Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists (-110 DraftKings)

"Jokic followed up one of his most impressive performances with a triple-double. However, the stats from his last game don’t jump off the page, especially when you consider Jokic’s averages. He finished with just 13 points, his fewest of this series by 10 points, and he only registered 10 rebounds, his second-fewest of the series. Yet he still excelled while finding his teammates.

The three-time MVP dished out 12 assists on Tuesday, and he’s now recorded 10-plus in all but one of his games in this series. He still assisted on eight made baskets in that contest, but Jokic did most of the Nuggets’ scoring while dropping 36 points.

I don’t expect another 36-point outing from Jokic, so look for him to continue to get his teammates involved, just like he’s done all season. He finished the regular season averaging 10.2 assists per matchup, and the veteran should hit that mark in Game 6 based on what he’s done in this series."

Jamal Murray Over 20.5 points (-110 BetMGM)

"Our best sports betting sites generally overcorrect after a huge game, which means it's the perfect time to fade the player in question.

However, the opposite is happening to Murray ahead of Game 6. Oddsmakers are setting his points total at just 19.5 or 20.5 following a 43-point performance. This feels like a trap, but there's no justification for taking the Under.

Murray has scored at least 21 points in four of the five games in this series. He scored just 13 in Game 4, but Murray also shot an abysmal 29.4% from the field. He averaged 47.4% from the floor in the regular season, so look for him to get around that average after back-to-back outlier games.

The guard averaged 21.4 points per game during the regular season, and he’s shown no issues with hitting that number against the Clippers. Most of our best sports betting apps are setting this Over with a price of -120 or more, so get in at BetMGM before the odds change."

Kawhi Leonard Under 3.5 assists (+105 BetMGM)

"Leonard dished out 11 assists during Game 5, his most in a contest all season. It was the first time he recorded double-digit assists since Jan. 23, 2023. It may be surprising to see this number set so low after such a great performance, but Leonard doesn't generally rack up a lot of assists

The forward averaged just 3.1 assists per game during the campaign. He's averaging 5.2 during the playoffs, but the six-time All-Star also finished two games with just two assists.

While Leonard could easily top this number as he has in three of the five games throughout this series, the price for the Under is too good to pass up. Getting this at +105 provides a lot of value, especially since Leonard ended the regular season with three or fewer assists in six of his last eight games."

**SBR Andy** · 05-02-25, 07:53 AM

The Clippers stay alive with a 111-105 win in Game 6 to force a Game 7 on Saturday.

Opening odds for Game 7 via DraftKings: Clippers -115 / Nuggets -105

**SBR Andy** · 05-03-25, 10:28 AM

Clippers vs Nuggets Game 7 player prop picks from SBR's Rob Paul:

Nikola Jokic Over 9.5 assists (+104 FanDuel)

"Despite closing as a distant second-favorite to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by the NBA MVP odds, Jokic is putting together arguably the best season of his career, and that's continued into the Nuggets' first-round series against the Clippers. The three-time MVP is averaging a triple-double against L.A., and he's tallied Over 9.5 assists in four of six games thus far.

The Clippers allowed the most assists to centers during the NBA regular season (4.9), so Jokic should get every opportunity to continue racking up apples in Game 7. These plus-money odds across our best sports betting apps make this prop even more enticing, as Jokic has registered double-digit assists in 44 of 76 games this year (57.9%).

Jokic is part of a Nuggets team that's receiving overwhelming support from spread bettors prior to the game, with 63% of the action going toward them to cover -1.5."

Kawhi Leonard Over 7.5 rebounds (-109 BetRivers)

"Even coming off a season in which he played just 37 games, Leonard is clearly still one of the best players in the NBA when healthy, and that's been showing up in the series against the Nuggets.

The 33-year-old has been as good as ever in every facet of the game. But his rebounding has been especially impressive this series, with Leonard pulling down eight boards per outing, up from his regular-season average of 5.9.

Leonard has recorded at least nine rebounds in four straight games against Denver. He should be able to own the glass again in Game 7 against a Nuggets team that allowed opposing power forwards to average 10.12 rebounds per game against them this season."

James Harden Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-102 FanDuel)

"Harden produced very little impact from beyond the 3-point line during two of the Clippers' three losses in the series. He combined to go just 1-for-4 from deep in Games 4 and 5, but bounced back with a huge performance in Game 6, finishing with 28 points and going 3-for-8 from three. It's pretty clear he needs to be a threat from long range if the Clippers hope to win Game 7.

In the four other games in the series (three wins and a two-point overtime loss), Harden averaged 3.5 made 3-pointers on nine 3-point attempts per game. Head coach Tyronn Lue will likely want to see that much volume again from Harden to take advantage of a Nuggets defense that allowed the seventh-most made 3-pointers per game to point guards this season (3.39)."

**SBR Andy** · 2025-05-05T12:40:09+00:00

The Nuggets blow out the Clippers in the 2nd half to take the series and set up a date with the #1 seed Thunder.

Updated odds for Denver to win the NBA Finals via DraftKings: +4000