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Just got home from work.
to win $100 a piece.
Clemson 1st Half +½ -105
Alabama 1st Half +1 -110
Oklahoma 1st Half +4 -105
Craptor +10 -108
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Thanks Busterflywheel, I need that. I've been cold like ice.
Sound like you check the live betting spread during the game is playing.
Pay attention, if you watch the game live, every time they go to commercial break, that's when the line spread available and open for betting. Give them about 5-10 seconds as soon as commercial break started, and the line only last about minute or so. Use a lot of refreshing in your browser.
Live betting is very dangerous if your mind setting on a certain team to win. You have to take your mind off your initial bet (the original bet for whole game if any), and find the value in the current line.
I did pretty well on Football live betting, but just recently start NBA.....still trying to find a grief
Same to you Sir.Comment -
1/20
*NCAABB*
Connecticut -8.5 ( 8x )
South Florida +9.5 ( 3x )
George Washington ML [ +475 ] ( 2x )
*NHL*
Canadiens ML [ -130 ] ( 3x )
*NBA*
Hawks -9.5 ( 3x )
Spurs -5.5 ( 3x )
Heat ML [ +155 ] ( 3x )
T-Wolves ML [ +250 ] ( 3x )
Hornets -3.5 ( 3x )
GL tonight guys
.
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Wed NBA PARLAY
Parlay Bet
DescriptionRiskJan 20 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 719 Utah Jazz +9 buying 3½ points -195 for GameWin
Jan 20 09:05 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 719 Utah Jazz / San Antonio Spurs Over 189 buying 4 points -190 for Game
Jan 20 10:35 PM EST - Basketball NBA - 724 Denver Nuggets / Golden State Warriors Under 234 buying 3½ points -180 for Game
3 Team Parlay
335.00874.40
Bet Slip TotalRiskWin
335.00 USD874.40
USDComment -
BOL tonight Ragiche and Ray.
I just finished install the entry door for the house with a help of a friend. Can't left him do the work to go gambling
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First play of the day.
Portland 3q +.5 to win $150.Comment -
gl DEComment -
Thanks VS, bol right back at ya Sir.
Ragiche....UCON, great job baby
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fellas
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Straight Bet
It has been a GOOD night for me. Utah JAZZ beat San Antonio SPURS and they went over the total. And in the Denver NUGGETS/GS WARRIORS game they only scored 106 in the 1st half. So, my 234 UNDER for the game looks secure.
I had the following Straight Bet too.
WAGER WON
Description: Basketball NBA - 722 Phoenix Suns -10 buying 2½ points -160 for Game
Risk: $315.14 (USD) To Win Amount: $196.97 (USD)
Amount Paid: $512.11 (USD)Comment -
Great work and an interesting reading, I pull this from statfox, author is Steve Makinen.
Last week in the office, a few of us at StatFox were having a discussion on NBA handicapping, and without any actual statistical evidence to back up the claim, I boasted that there are just certain types of teams that I never like to lay points with. After stepping back and analyzing the comment, I thought that it might do some good to actually look deeper into the subject. Perhaps by being so generic, I was missing out on opportunities to profit, or worse yet, actually playing on logic that didn’t produce winning results. What if I’m just plain wrong? With that in mind, I set out this week to build a system on bad favorites in the NBA that we can utilize the rest of this season. Let’s see what we can come up with. Who knows? We might come up with nothing. It’s worth a try though.
To start with, I went into the StatFox Database and pulled out the last 10-1/2 seasons of NBA game logs with the lines, scores, and stats of the teams going into each game. After sifting through the beginning data, the records I came up with for sub-.500 home & road favorites since the 2000 season were as follows:
Home Favorites with Losing Records: 1895-1002 SU, 1426-1419-52 ATS (50.1%)
Road Favorites with Losing Records: 381-231 SU, 315-287-10 ATS (52.3%)With both groups having a winning record ATS over the last 10+ seasons, it’s evident that my generic belief may be flawed. So far the most promising results seem to be on actually backing these suspect road favorites. I’m not convinced just yet though. Let go further by looking at the MONTH of the season in which these teams are favored.
Point in the Season
I separated the NBA season into three different segments. The following trends shows the highlights of playing bad home or road favorites at certain times of the season.
Sub-.500 NBA home favorites are 638-324 SU & 504-444-14 ATS (53.2%) in the months of January & February since ’99.
Sub-.500 NBA home favorites are 135-65 SU & 109-86-5 ATS (55.9%) in the months of March & April since ’99.Size of the Line
As we’re starting to uncover some more potent data, we will continue our push. The next thing we want to look at is the amount of points these bad teams are favored by. Is there a benchmark of too many points? Is there a range where these favorites are reliable? According to this trend there is.
Sub-.500 NBA home favorites are 1006-556 SU & 782-758-22 ATS (50.8%) when favored in the -3 to -6.5 line range since '99. Sub-.500 road favorites are 217-98 SU & 171-139-5 ATS (55.2%) in that same line range and time span.As you can see by the chart entry that has been embolden, the losing club playing as a road favorite in the -3 to -6.5 points range has been quite effective in the NBA. Later we’ll combine these positive angles to see if they form a potent system. For now, let’s move on to another variable.
Type of Game
Do sub-.500 favorites in the NBA fare better if they are playing divisional, conference, or opposite-conference opponents? It turns out they are most successful.
Sub-.500 home & road favorites both experience their best success against divisional opponents, as home favs are 341-336-11 ATS (50.4%) and road favs are 82-67-4 ATS (55.0%)
Interestingly, the favorite has a record over .500 ATS in every one of the six different analyzed categories, though from a betting perspective, the only one that has proven profitable over the last decade has been the sub-.500 road favorite in divisional games.Quality of the Opponent
Does it provide any additional benefit to take into account the opponent’s record when deciding whether or not to bet these sub-.500 favorites? You be the judge of that…
Sub-.500 NBA home favorites who have a better record than their opponent are 835-317 SU & 580-551-21 ATS (51.3%) since ’99.
Sub-.500 NBA home favorites who have a lesser record than their opponent are 962-634 SU & 774-793-29 ATS (49.4%) since ’99.
Sub-.500 NBA road favorites who have a better record than their opponent are 302-183 SU & 246-231-8 ATS (51.5%) since ‘99
Sub-.500 NBA road favorites who have a lesser record than their opponent are 59-32 SU & 50-39-2 ATS (56.2%) since ‘99This is a strange discovery. It turns out that there is about a 2% advantage to backing sub-.500 home favorites that have better records, but almost a 5% disadvantage to playing sub-.500 road favorites with the superior won-lost mark.
Won-Lost Record of the Favored Team
Now, there are bad teams, and there are truly bad teams. You would expect that the worse the won-lost record, the worse the chance of both winning and covering as a favorite, right? Let’s see…
Home favorites winning 30% or less of their games on the season are 335-220 SU & 263-279-13 ATS (48.5%) since ’99.
Home favorites winning between 31%-40% of their games on the season are 616-322 SU & 471-449-18 ATS (51.2%) since ’99.
Home favorites winning between 41%-50% of their games on the season are 944-460 SU & 697-686-21 ATS (50.4%) since ’99.
Road favorites winning 30% or less of their games on the season are 58-32 SU & 53-36-1 ATS (59.5%) since ’99.
Road favorites winning between 31%-40% of their games on the season are 98-71 SU & 79-87-3 ATS (47.5%) since ’99.
Road favorites winning between 41%-50% of their games on the season are 225-128 SU & 183-164-6 ATS (52.7%) since ’99.It seems that when betting a sub-.500 favorite at home, the better the won-lost record, the better the chance for a cover, while the most ugly sub-.500 road favorites have made for the best wagers, contrary to public perception.
Building Theoretical Game Lines
Using teams’ scoring differentials, many statistical handicappers like to build game lines. They do this by simply comparing the home team’s differential with the road team’s, then adding 3.5 points for home court advantage. Does it give any advantage to us in our search for a bad favorite system to compare this Theoretical Line to the Actual Line?
When the Theoretical Line exceeds the Actual Line in a game involving a sub-.500 home favorite, that team is just 382-407-18 ATS (48.4%).
When the Actual Line exceeds the Theoretical Line in a game involving a sub-.500 home favorite, that team is just 1019-991-34 ATS (50.7%).
When the Theoretical Line exceeds the Actual Line in a game involving a sub-.500 road favorite, that team is just 59-58 ATS (50.4%).
When the Actual Line exceeds the Theoretical Line in a game involving a sub-.500 road favorite, that team is just 251-225-10 ATS (52.7%). As you can see, the frequency at which the Theoretical Line exceeds the Actual Line is far less than the opposite. In other words, oddsmakers usually make these teams bigger favorites than statistically deserved. Ironically, the greater betting value for backing these sub-.500 favorites is when they ARE overpriced.
Putting Together Our Results
Although nothing earth-shattering has arisen yet in our study, this exercise should serve as a good example of how betting systems get built. Of course, I do want to deliver something of value so the next thing we’ll want to do then is to put our most promising results together to see if we can increase our success by tightening the variables.
So far we know the following about sub-.500 HOME favorites:
They are most effective in the months of January & February each season
They are reasonably successful in the -3 to -6.5 line range
They cover the pointspread most often in divisional games
They cover more often when they have a better record than their opponent
They are more effective when winning 31% or more of their games
They are more likely to cover when the Actual Line exceeds the Theoretical Line (Scoring Differential Line) in a gameWhen we combine all of the above factors into one system, it would read as follows:
Play on sub-.500 home favorites of -3 to -6.5, with a winning percentage of 31-50%, in January or February Divisional games, when facing an opponent with a worse won-lost mark and the Actual Line exceeds the Theoretical Line. (Record since ’99: 20-7 SU & 16-11 ATS)Similarly, we know the following about sub-.500 ROAD favorites:
They are most effective in the months of March & April each season
They are only successful in the -3 to -6.5 line range
They are a solid wager in divisional games
They are a strong wager when they have a worse record than their opponent
The are best “at their worst”, or when winning 30% or less of their games
They are more likely to cover when the Actual Line exceeds the Theoretical Line (Scoring Differential Line) in a gameWhen we combine all of these factors into one system, it reads:
Play on sub-.500 road favorites of -3 to -6.5, with a winning percentage of 30% or less, in March or April Divisional games, when facing an opponent with a better won-lost mark and the Actual Line exceeds the Theoretical Line. (Record since ’99: 0-0!)Those last factors combine so rarely that we haven’t even had a single play qualify over the last 10 years. That’s O.K. though, there’s no need to tighten the factors as much as we did, since we have some basic concepts to use going forward for betting bad favorites. Quite frankly, I’m a bit surprised after conducting this study, I thought these teams would be far worse than they actually are in terms of covering pointspreads. It goes to show that the sports bettor needs to have an open mind as he continues along the quest to profits.Comment -
Thurs play(s):
Louisville Pk $165 to win $150. the line look like a trap, but I like my chance.Comment -
Other small lean on Elon and Indiana U. On NBA liking Cavs and OVER.
Will play small, or probably not play anything tonight. Save powder for tomorrow, there few games catching my eyes on NBA tomorrow.
Definitely liking Heat 1H and Raptor OVER team total.Comment -
gl tonight DEComment -
Adding:
Arkansas pk $157.50 to win $150Comment -
Adding:
NHL Ottawa -.5 1st 60 minutes -103 $206 to win $200Comment -
Parlay Bet
DescriptionRiskJan 24 03:00 PM EST - Football NFL - 302 Indianapolis Colts -6½ [buying 1 point] -150 for GameWin
Jan 21 09:00 PM EST - Basketball NCAA - 525 Pepperdine +24 [buying 1½ points] -140 for Game
Jan 21 10:00 PM EST - Basketball NCAA - 533 Louisiana Tech -3 [buying 3 points] -170 for Game
3 Team ParlayBet Slip TotalRiskWin
$512.12 USD$1,824.58 USD
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Adding,
Louisville/Secton Hall OVER 159 to win $150
NHL Flyers -.5 1st 60 minutes + 110 to win $150Comment -
Thanks busterflywheel, the line move to my advantage, but let see it turn out correctly or books fooling "sharps" again.
I didn't mean my pick is sharp though, what I mean is "sharp" normally pounding L'ville if they see the line reserved like that.
BOL today Ray, I do like Pepperdine pick Sir, I was eying that one for a while.
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Friday.
Wofford pk to win $500
Heat -1.5 to win $200 (booked last night)Comment -
Add,
Wofford 1H -.5 to win $200Comment -
Went from 9x surplus to 9x deficit on Friday alone
. Seem like a blueprint now, every week UP in beginning then start melting away in the last few days of the week.
Hope to find some good games today to get myself out of the hole.Comment -
DE you can start play 1st 4 day of the week then tell me you your pick I'll guide you through winning week.
It really suck to see you hard earn money give back but for you give back and more is un acceptable
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thank VS, I might consider that. It has something to do with my work schedule too, I guess. Weekly from Monday -Thursday, I got home really early, have more time to capping/thinking and such. Friday to Sunday I mostly stuck at work until 9:00pm.
I have to discipline myself more toward weekend in term of betting. I should just locked in my profit and spend time to enjoy with all my hot waitresses....hahahha.
Thanks for your thoughts VS.Comment -
13 minute into the games, I late because I write respond to you VS...hahaha.
Saturday 23
Play #
Michigan State +1 $150 (1H)
St. John +4 $150 (1H)Comment -
Here are the syndicate plays i got from some runners. I'm on none of these.
Kent St. -2
Michigan St. +2
Bama PK
Mississippi St. 135.5UNDER
Arkansas +16.5
Marq 124 OV
Cal Poly Slo PK
Temple -20
VCU +3.5Comment -
Thanks HT.....everything help man.
Marq OVER and VCU are on my list, so it help a lot. I leaning Temple, but still undecided.
Many thanks brother
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Duke -1Comment -
Im like Duke myself today...Comment -
I just hope the score margin stay like this for Villanova.....they will down little bit at half. And if 2H, they'll giving anything less than 5, I will pound heavy on Nova.
Thanks HT.
BTW, what's up with the girl in your avatar, is she got hanged up or picture took during her flipComment -
Leaning Boston Bruins and Flyers....any thoughts?Comment
