Should we take Lakers +3 (-120) vs Clippers on Wednesday?

**LT Profits** · 04-03-07, 06:18 PM

Aren't the Lakers -3?

**LT Profits** · 04-03-07, 06:19 PM

Sorry img,

I rhought you were talking about TONIGHT. My bad.

:embarrassed:

**imgv94** · 04-03-07, 06:34 PM

It's cool man..

**durito** · 04-03-07, 07:23 PM

Has anyone done any research to see what type of homecourt advantage to award to the Clippers here? It's something I've never looked at, though I will have to look into it.

I would assume the full 4.5pts that's normal for a rested home team v. a unrested visitor does not apply to this game. Sure, the Lakers play tonight -- but they don't have to travel and they stay at home.

On the season I rate the Lakers about 1pt better than the Clippers, though the Clippers have performed at a higher level recently.

I'll have to look at this game further tomorrow and see how the Lakers play tonight.

**imgv94** · 04-03-07, 07:31 PM

Good stuff durito my man..

Don't have to worry about motivation here when the Clippers and Lakers play..

No home court at all!! Court will be Clippers colors and that is it.

In a likely Close game +3 and Kobe Bryant's heroics seems good to me..

**durito** · 04-03-07, 11:11 PM

I went ahead and looked at all 30 games played at the Staples center between the Clippers and the Lakers. 4 games per year since the '99-'00 season + 2 so far this year. I looked at all of the games, and also just the games from the last 3 seasons since Shaq left LA.

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All of the stats here are from the perspective of the Lakers (obviously just reverse them to get the clippers stats).

*The lakers were 23-7 straight up in all games, but just 15-15 ATS.

*Including 6-4 straight up the last 3 years, and 5-5 ATS.

*The lakers averaged 101.9pts and gave up 96 (5.9pt diff). The average line was -6.4

As the home team:
*12-3 SU *8-7 ATS

*Scored 101.73 gave up 94.73 (7pt diff). Average line was -7.13

*Last 3 years: Scored 100, gave up 96 (4pt diff), avg. line -1.5, 3-2SU, 3-2ATS

As the road team:
*11-4 SU *7-8 ATS

*Scored 102.07, gave up 97.27 (4.8 pt diff). Avg. line -5.67

*Last 3 years: Scored 94, gave up 98.2 (-4.2pt diff). Avg. line +1
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30 games is hardly a significant sample, and this doesn't account for injuries, etc (though presumably those are factored into the lines). But, we do see a difference when the Lakers are the home team v. the road team. 2.2pts in all games (and 8.2 the last 3 seasons).

Normally we'd expect the home/road differential between two teams to be around 6, so it obviously looks to be quite a bit less of a factor here.

The lines have also been about 1.5pts different (2.5 the last 3 years).

Also of interest, I found that the Lakers played 3 sets of games that were close together:

01/05/00 L.A. Clippers W 118-101 -14
1/4/00 @ L.A. Clippers W 122-98 -13.5

01/07/01 L.A. Clippers L 95-118 -12
12/30/00 @ L.A. Clippers W 116-114 (OT) -11

03/19/04 L.A. Clippers W 106-100 -10
3/17/2004 @ L.A. Clippers W 106-103 -9

Assuming since these games were close together that lineups, etc were similar. The odds were only adjusted by 1,1, and 1/2.

The only conclusion I really see here is that there is probably a slight advantage for the home team, perhaps around 1/2 to 1pt. Let me think about this a little more.

**nevadaside** · 04-03-07, 11:18 PM

Tonights LAL tight game is gonna drain them somewhat. LAC is playing well & will have some rest on their side as well.

I could only roll w/LAC-2.

**LT Profits** · 04-03-07, 11:22 PM

Aside from the court colors, there is also a matter of the fans. Whoever the home team is, that club has its ticketholders in the stands. Therefore, there is a difference in regards to fan support.

**imgv94** · 04-03-07, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by nevadaside

Tonights LAL tight game is gonna drain them somewhat. LAC is playing well & will have some rest on their side as well.

I could only roll w/LAC-2.

Please don't let that sway you.. Lakers aren't traveling and have played plenty of B2Bs this season..

**Peyton2MarvinN06** · 04-04-07, 06:55 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Please don't let that sway you.. Lakers aren't traveling and have played plenty of B2Bs this season..

IMG, the Clips are just flat out playin better ball right now... I know they haven't really played anyone lately, but have they even been challenged? Sure, they lost to the Rockets last week, but then again so did the Lakers... I'm fvckin pissed off with the Lakers after their performance last night, had 4 units on the fvckers! Elton Brand has been playin awesome, so is Cuttino Mobley, and for sure the surprising Jason Hart for that matter! I'm not sure if Maggette is playing tonight, but it sounds to me like he will be... The fvckin Lakers can't even win at home anymore, I know its basically a home game tonight, but NOT REALLY! There is no way I could play the Lakers in this one... If you weren't rollin on the Lakers last night bro, I don't see how u could be rollin on them tonight?!?!

**Crayzee** · 04-04-07, 10:03 AM

for me a -3 is always a play on the favorite
and a split line like i think your talking about
+3-120 is always a play on the dog side of the money
of course i wait till about 10:05 on a10:12 pm or 10:40 on a10:42 game to make my move
and it is the line at that time that helps me decide which way

**buztah** · 04-04-07, 11:44 AM

I took LAL +3. This is basically a home game for both teams so it comes down to the players. LAL have a bit more talent and after last night's embarrasing loss I see the LAL winning outright tonight. I put 1 unit on LAL ML and 10 on LAL +3.

**imgv94** · 04-04-07, 05:15 PM

Good Luck fellas.. I don't think the Clippers have played all that well.. they haven't beaten anybody..

GL everyone.

**rjt721** · 04-04-07, 05:29 PM

I like the over in this one. Should be a close game and the Lakers give up 100+ to everyone.

**imgv94** · 04-04-07, 05:47 PM

Yep Lakers give up 100 to everyone.. Horrible defense.