Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 04.03.07

[Jay Edgar]

THROUGH MONDAY 04.02.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 3-7, +0.74u
(MIA, ATL, IND, MIL, MEM, MIN, BOS, CHA, DEN, SAC)
YTD 283-533, +49.87u
(since the ASB: 74-168, -15.84u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 5-5, -0.25u
YTD 429-374 (.534) +36.30u
(since the ASB: 121-117 (.506) -1.85u)


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 70
2 LAC 67
3 DET 63
4 DAL 62
5 PHX 59
6 HOU 58
7 CLE 58
8 DEN 58
9 TOR 57
10 CHI 54
11 WAS 53
12 UTH 52
13 NJ 50
14 BOS 50
15 ORL 48
16 IND 48
17 MIA 47
18 CHA 47
19 LAX 47
20 PHI 46
21 GS 46
22 NOK 45
23 SEA 44
24 SAC 40
25 NY 39
26 MEM 39
27 MIL 39
28 POR 38
29 ATL 38
30 MIN 34

EDGAR LINES FOR 04.03.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

CHA 3.4/143 over WAS

IND 1.8/116 over DET

MIA 2.9/136 over TOR

CLE 1.8/119 over MIN

SAN 5.1/181 over SEA

PHX 0.1/100 over MEM

SAC 3.6/147 over DAL

LAX 3.3/142 over DEN

MIL 3.3/141over NOK


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

WAS +170, CHA -120

DET +138, IND +102

TOR +162, MIA -115

CLE +100, MIN +141

SEA +218, SAN -151

PHX +118, MEM +119

DAL +176, SAC -124

DEN +169, LAX -120

NOK +169, MIL -119

[Jay Edgar]

As I've mentioned more than once, I am essentially done for the NBA season and am running the numbers and tracking the results to see what can be learned.

At this point fundamental handicapping seems hit or miss at best, and completely meaningless at worst. All lottery-bound teams (and some playoff teams) have big conflicts of interest that are skewing the performance and the results.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the ugly-ducklings that this system picks are hanging in there ATS, but are not pulling anywhere near the rate of straight-up wins that they showed before the silly season started.


% TEAM ATS ML
6 MIN LOSS -100
6 CHA WIN 100
11 TOR WIN -100
11 MIL LOSS -100
17 IND LOSS -100
23 SAC WIN -100
27 SEA LOSS -100
34 MEM WIN -100


THROUGH TUESDAY 04.03.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 1-7, -6.00u
(MIN, CHA, TOR, MIL, IND, MEM, SAC, SEA)
YTD 284-540, +43.87u
(since the ASB: 75-175, -21.84u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 4-4, -0.20u
YTD 433-378 (.534) +36.10u
(since the ASB: 125-121 (.508) -2.05u)