Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 03.27.07

[Jay Edgar]

Bottom line -- these numbers continue to NOT yield consistent winners after the ASB. The better teams have stepped it up and the lesser teams have dropped it down.

So beware, or ignore, if that suits you. Time to move on to baseball.

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 1-7, -5.57u
(NY, ATL, BOS, POR, MIL, WAS, MEM, GS)
YTD 271-509, +37.95u
(since the ASB: 62-144, -27.76u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-6, -4.30u
YTD 407-360 (.531) +29.00u
(since the ASB: 99-103 (.490) -4.30u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 71
2 DAL 69
3 DET 68
4 LAC 64
5 HOU 63
6 DEN 60
7 CLE 58
8 TOR 53
9 CHI 52
10 WAS 52
11 ORL 50
12 PHX 50
13 UTH 50
14 GS 49
15 NOK 49
16 BOS 48
17 IND 47
18 NJ 47
19 POR 45
20 CHA 44
21 LAX 43
22 MIA 43
23 MIN 42
24 PHI 42
25 MIL 41
26 SAC 39
27 SEA 39
28 ATL 39
29 NY 35
30 MEM 32


EDGAR LINES FOR 03.27.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

IND 3.2/140 over CLE

DAL 0.2/101 over NOK

MIN 3.0/137 over SEA

LAX 6.0/214 over MEM


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

CLE +167, IND -118

DAL +117, NOK +120

SEA +163, MIN -116

MEM +262, LAX -178

[bigboydan]

Jay, Did you do any weekly numbers since the all-star break? I'm curious to see what the updated numbers are right now. I'm just trying to get a gauge based on what my numbers might be compared to yours.

[Jay Edgar]

Sure.

Feb 20-25
ML 11-25, -3.34u
ATS 18-18, -0.90u

Feb 26-Mar 4
ML 8-29, -15.69u
ATS 16-19, -5.00u

Mar 5-11
ML 15-28, -6.94u
ATS 18-24, -6.15u

Mar 12-18
ML 15-26, +6.17u
ATS 24-16, +7.20u

Mar 19-25
ML 12-29, -2.39u
ATS 21-20, 0.00u

[bigboydan]

Thanks Jay.

Same type of numbers I basically had as well. Looks like the all-star break is still the best time to stop IMO.

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
13 IND LOSS -100
15 SEA WIN 258
20 NOK LOSS -100
21 MEM WIN 700


5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 2-2, +7.58u
(IND, NOK, SEA, MEM)
YTD 273-511, +45.53u
(since the ASB: 64-146, -20.18u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 409-362 (.531) +28.90u
(since the ASB: 101-105 (.490) -4.20u)

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Jay,

Solid hit tonight on that Memphis ML! I was gonna pose the question to the forum if anyone had rolled on them somehow! Guess the Edgar line was good enough to make a play! NICE WORK AND DEFINITELY A GREAT HIT!

Keep up the good work man!

[Jay Edgar]

Thanks P2M.

Those big ones have been fewer and farther between in these last weeks of the season.