Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 03.20.07

**Jay Edgar** · 03-19-07, 11:02 PM

Numbers complete.

I liked the Hawks and Celts better than some of the pigs the method will be on Tuesday.

**bigboydan** · 03-20-07, 12:19 AM

Your right it's a bad slate of games indeed. I'm just wondering if I should take the day off on Tuesday.

**onlooker** · 03-20-07, 12:23 AM

I actually like 3 heavy favorites tomorrow.

**SquareShooter** · 03-20-07, 07:43 AM

Whats your take on Warriors +7 @ Utah tonight?

2 pretty strong opposite opinions:
Marc Lawrence (SBR front page) says:
The Jazz have dominated Golden State in Utah over the years, and should do so again tonight in a letdown spot for the Warriors after a rare road win.
And Jazz has only lost 7 games @ home this year.

But Warriors play great basketball of lately because this is the first time they got their "prefered" lineup together. W's is different team with or without Baron on court. And actually Warriors have yet to lose a game w/ their best starting lineup actually starting.
Sources also say that Warriors morale is at all time high as they're heading to playoffs first time in 12 years.

I'd personally take Warriors against the spread...
Whats your take?

**Jay Edgar** · 03-20-07, 08:32 AM

I like GS as well. I think my own number on UTH is a little high.

GS has just now really come together. That's not necessarily a group that you'd expect to stay focused for months at a time, but this whole "everybody's healthy" thing is new enough to them that it'd be surprising if they have a letfown game here. UTH, on the other hand, is a borderline candidate to struggle per the "home at last" phenomenon -- teams back home after a road trip play tend to poorly at first.

**Dark Horse** · 03-20-07, 08:57 AM

I'm leaning towards UTA, but will probably pass. UTA may have lost four straight, but the losses weren't that important for their playoff position. Also, the road trip had a fated element. In the first game of the trip they gave up a huge (17pt?) lead to Miami late in the game for a close loss. The next day in Orlando they were still reeling. Then they lost a 1 pt game in Philly, before a peaking Cleveland beat them convincingly.

Sloan is too good of a coach to allow his team to continue the slump, especially at this point in the season. The last time UTA lost five straight ATS was in January 2005, and that was a terrible team.

Both teams are playing with their eyes on the standings. UTA still has a firm grip on the number 4 spot, but this is the time to step it up if they don't want the Rockets to overtake them. GS has been playing for the number 8 spot, in a battle that is very close, so their challenge will be to maintain intensity for the rest of the season.

We could very well be at the point were people are now overestimating GS; for example by remembering their big win over DAL, and forgetting that DAL had a letdown after blowing out the Lakers in LA. When two teams are going in opposite directions, over a number of games, there often is value with the team in the downward spiral, especially if it is a quality team.

**LargeMouthBass** · 03-20-07, 09:01 AM

GS has been terrible on the road but that was without Baron Davis. With Davis back, GS is 6-1 and that one loss being at Portland when Davis sat out. GS has a very good chance to cover the 8 points and maybe even pull off a victory. The spread's probably gonna go down to 6 before tip off. We'll see what happens.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-20-07, 04:04 PM

It does NOT sound as if Sloan woodshedded the lads in practice. Plus there's injury news of sorts.
=======================
By Linda Hamilton
Deseret Morning News
Utah Jazz coach Jerry Sloan hates excuses almost as much as he hates a big reason for them — losing.
He's not given to complaining about injured players. "I can't worry about that" is his standard line. To him, fatigue is just a poor state of mind.
But on the Monday after the Jazz's losing streak had mounted to four, matching a season-high, and with the 32-36 Golden State Warriors coming to town tonight on a three-game win streak, Sloan seemed a bit resigned to talk about how little things added up last week.
"We're not in the rhythm a lot of teams get into at this stage of the season," he said. "We won some games, but it seems like we've had someone miss a game almost every time we've played here in the last (little while) — but that shouldn't be an excuse. The point is simply, you know for teams like us, we have to play in a rhythm."
Sloan may have the same problems tonight. Both Gordan Giricek and Matt Harpring are listed as doubtful after missing Saturday's game at Cleveland with injuries.
Giricek underwent a CT scan Monday that revealed no structural damage but did show bruising on his ribs from the hip check he took Friday in Philadelphia on the Sixers' final play. Harpring had a Monday MRI that also revealed no structural damage to his repaired knee (microfracture surgery) but did show a slight strain in the hamstring tendon.

**bigboydan** · 03-20-07, 04:44 PM

Interesting article about Sloan.

Thanks for posting it Jay.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-20-07, 11:55 PM

% TEAM ATS ML
6 MEM LOSS -116
9 GS WIN -100
9 PHI LOSS -100
10 LAC WIN 320
13 NJ LOSS -100
13 IND WIN -100
17 POR WIN 165
23 MIN LOSS -100
24 CHA WIN 280
32 NY LOSS -100

Memphis almost got steamed out of the picture.
Not quite.
Too bad.

Through Tuesday 03.20.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 3-7, +0.49u
(NJ, CHA, NY, PHI, MEM, LAC, GS, IND, MIN, POR)
YTD 262-481, +46.87u
(since the ASB: 53-116, -18.84u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 5-5, -0.25u
YTD 390-340 (.534) +33.00u
(since the ASB: 82-83 (.497) -5.15u)