Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 03.13.06

[Jay Edgar]

Through Monday 03.12.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 2-2, +2.34u
(CHA, MEM, HOU, GS)
YTD 245-449, +42.08u
(since the ASB: 36-84, -23.63u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 362-320 (.531) +26.00u
(since the ASB: 54-63 (.462) -12.15u)

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 80
2 UTH 69
3 DAL 69
4 MIA 64
5 CHI 62
6 CLE 62
7 PHX 58
8 PHI 57
9 HOU 55
10 DET 54
11 GS 54
12 POR 53
13 MIL 51
14 TOR 50
15 SAC 47
16 NY 46
17 SEA 45
18 WAS 44
19 NJ 44
20 ORL 44
21 DEN 44
22 LAC 43
23 NOK 43
24 ATL 42
25 BOS 39
26 MEM 39
27 CHA 36
28 LAX 36
29 MIN 35
30 IND 32

EDGAR LINES FOR 03.13.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

ATL 2.9/134 over PHI

CLE 6.0/212 over SAC

MIA 3.7/152 over UTH

SAN 9.0/383 over LAC

MIN 3.5/144 over IND

NOK 5.6/193 over NJ

CHI 5.8/206 over BOS

DEN 3.7/153 over POR

SEA 2.5/127 over DET

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

PHI +160, ATL -113

SAC +258, CLE -175

UTH +182, MIA -128

LAC +506, SAN -302

IND +172, MIN -122

NJ +234, NOK -161

BOS +251, CHI -171

POR +183, DEN -128

DET +150, SEA -107

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

PHI +319, ATL +160

SAC +652, CLE +104

UTH +379, MIA +141

LAC +5175, SAN -153

IND +352, MIN +148

NJ +553, NOK +112

BOS +622, CHI +106

POR +382, DEN +140

DET +295, SEA +170

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Tuesday.


77% of the way through the regular season schedule now.
(In a marathon, just past 20 miles. And it feels that way.)

[bigboydan]

That Hornets/Nets game was one tough game to cap for me Jay. That number is too close to call IMO.

The factor in that back-2-back factor the Nets are playing too boot. I mean is a 10th of a % worth it is the question I'm having a problem with in regards to playing the Hornets here, because the line is right on your projection number.

[Jay Edgar]

NJ-NOK will probably be a no-play under the method. As you know, to keep it simple the play/no play decision is always determined by the moneyline (even though the tracked plays are both ML and ATS).

I was surprised by the Nets win last night. It might be the sign of a team that is ready for a spurt. That seems to be their MO.

Fun fact: the Nets have not had a winning streak end at a single game since November 13. Every win since then has been part of at least a 2-game winning streak. This includes winning both ends of the BxB games three times (though never road/road).

If NJ had a day off before this game, I'd make NOK 3.8/155, meaning you would need just +186 to play the Nets.

[bigboydan]

You see my point then quite clearly then Jay.

[Jay Edgar]

I lean Nets.

But at this stage of the game I am not disappointed to see games that my own numbers tell me I should pass.

[Jay Edgar]

Thought we might really be getting somewhere . . . .
Then two half-point losses to close the night.

% TEAM ATS ML
7 ATL WIN 100
10 CLE WIN 100
12 IND WIN -100
13 LAC WIN -100
14 MIA WIN 111
16 BOS WIN -100
16 POR LOSS -100
16 SEA LOSS -100

Through Tuesday 03.13.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 3-5, -1.89u
(ATL, CLE, MIA, LAC, IND, BOS, POR, SEA)
YTD 248-454, +40.19u
(since the ASB: 39-89, -25.52u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 6-2, +3.90u
YTD 368-322 (.533) +29.90u
(since the ASB: 60-65 (.478) -8.25u)