Jay Edgar NBA, Saturday 03.10.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Friday, 4-4, +0.22u
(PHI, BOS, MIA, ATL, NJ, DEN, NOK, LAC)
YTD 238-418, +45.15u
(since the ASB: 29-73, -20.56u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Friday, 4-3-1, +0.85u
YTD 355-310 (.534) +29.50u
(since the ASB: 47-53 (.470) -8.65u)

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 80
2 DAL 71
3 UTH 67
4 MIA 67
5 CLE 62
6 CHI 60
7 MIL 56
8 PHI 55
9 PHX 55
10 HOU 54
11 SAC 53
12 GS 50
13 POR 49
14 DET 49
15 ORL 49
16 LAC 48
17 WAS 48
18 SEA 47
19 TOR 46
20 NOK 45
21 LAX 44
22 NY 44
23 ATL 41
24 BOS 41
25 NJ 41
26 DEN 40
27 MEM 40
28 CHA 38
29 MIN 34
30 IND 31

EDGAR LINES FOR 03.10.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

CHA 5.9/209 MEM

ATL 6.0/214 over MIN

WAS 6.1/219 over NY

IND 3.8/153 over PHI

SAN 11.5/719 over NJ

MIL 4.4/166 over CLE

UTH 5.6/195 over NOK

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

MEM +255, CHA -174

MIN +262, ATL -178

NY +269, WAS -182

PHI +183, IND -129

NJ +1149, SAN -509

CLE +200, MIL -139

NOK +237, UTH -163


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

MEM +639, CHA +105

MIN +667, ATL +103

NY +699, WAS +100

PHI +383, IND +140

NJ +---, SAN -223

CLE +433, MIL +129

NOK +564, UTH +111

[onlooker]

Looks like a winning day for you Jay, no matter what happens in that Clipper game. Good job.

I hope Saturday produces a profit for you as well.

[Dark Horse]

Really like the Spurs on Saturday. Good to see you have 11.5 pts for them.

In my system favorites with overlays between 5 and 10, and teams with overlays of 20 pts or more are doing well this season. Last season around this time road dogs had the clear edge. Strange how that can swing.

If the Spurs line is -5 (right now at the Pig) I have the biggest overlay of the season for that game. How on earth could these Spurs not cover 5 pts against the Nets?! (that type of 'certainty' is definitely a worry).

[onlooker]

-5? You sure thats not a 1st half?

I thought we would be seeing another 16 favorite today. If not 16, at least 10. 5 seems low to me.

[imgv94]

Spurs won't be -5 tomorrow..

More like -10.5 to -12

Pig never has lines this early..

[Dark Horse]

SBR Odds had SA -5 last night for the Pig.

Too good to be true.

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
5 NY WIN 270
6 CHA LOSS -168
12 MIL LOSS -108
19 NOK WIN -100
27 ATL WIN 135

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Saturday, 2-3, +0.29u
(CHA, ATL, NY, MIL, NOK)
YTD 240-421, +45.44u
(since the ASB: 31-76, -20.27u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Saturday, 3-2, +0.90u
YTD 358-312 (.534) +30.40u
(since the ASB: 50-55 (.476) -7.70u)

[bigboydan]

That Bucks/Cavs game was a heartbreaker.

[Jay Edgar]

Yeah, but Stevie Francis made up for it here --

Man, this is a long season!!