Thoughts on the IF bet

**LT Profits** · 03-07-07, 02:18 PM

PARLAY!

Here is an old article that I wrote a few years ago that shows that there is nothing wrong with a good hadicapper playing 2-team parlays:

We have always felt that one way for a 55 percent handicapper to build up a bankroll rather quickly is by playing 3-team 2-way round robins. This is simply defined as three 2-team parlays boxing all combinations among three plays, i.e. AB, AC, and BC.

Now many people, including so-called professional bettors, have scoffed at the prospect of playing just ONE parlay, as they consider them 'sucker bets'. Well, we have always maintained that if a handicapper can consistently win 55 percent of his plays in the 11/10 sports, namely football and basketball, then round robins are not only considered an acceptable betting mechanism, but we would actually RECOMMEND them!

We feel that people that look at parlays as strictly recreational bets are missing the point. These players assume that every play has a 50 percent probability of winning. Therefore, they contend, the true chances of hitting a 2-team parlay are 25 percent (.50 x .50), which is not enough to overcome the standard 13/5 payoff, which has a breakeven point of 27.78 percent. Our thinking is that if a handicapper has a long-term 55 percent (or better) success rate, then it would be proper to assume a 55 percent expectation on each play instead of 50 percent.

Using this criteria, the expected odds of hitting a 2-team parlay would now be 30.25 percent (.55 x .55), which would show a long-term profit at 13/5 odds. To illustrate, let us say a 55 percent handicapper played 100 $10 parlays. The total investment of these parlays would be $1,000. With a 30.25 percent win rate, this handicapper should hit around 30 of these parlays. Since each winning $10 parlay would have a return of $36, the total return on the 30 winning parlays would be $1,080, translating into an $80 profit and an 8 percent ROI! If the handicapper has a proven long term win rate of 56 percent, 57 percent or higher, his ROI would be exponentially higher.

Now, let's say that a 55 percent handicapper likes 3 games on a particular day. If he had $300 to invest, should he play each game for $100 straight, or would it be more profitable to play a $100 round robin, investing the same $300? To illustrate this, let us take a look at a series of 300 games, comparing the expectation of playing 300 straight bets with that of playing 300 parlays.

If he played 300 straight bets with a 55 percent win rate, he would win 165 of those bets. With a profit of $91 for each $100 bet, his profit for the series would be (165 x 91) - (135 x 100) = $1,515. Now if he instead played 300 2-team parlays with a 30.25 percent expectation as discussed earlier, he would be expected to hit about 90 of those parlays. His profit for the series would be (90 x 260) - (210 x 100) = $2,400. As you can see, he would have made a significantly better profit playing parlays ($2,400 profit/$30,000 invested = 8 percent ROI) than he would have playing straight bets ($1,515/$30,000 = 5.05 percent ROI).

The moral of all this is that if you are a 55 percent or better handicapper, then round robins can be very lucrative. Now it is understandable that even the best of handicappers may be a bit squeamish about relying entirely on round robins to come out ahead of the game. Our advice then is to start out by playing 70 percent of your units on straight bets and 30 percent on round robins. Therefore, the $100 bettor would start out by playing $70 straight on each game and a $30 3-team 2-way round robin, investing the same $300 that he would have invested if he played all the games straight. As the bankroll grows larger, only then consider raising the round robin percentage to 35 or even 40 percent of a normal unit.

**dirtyjock** · 03-07-07, 02:26 PM

thats what i was thinking if I do a parlay I was gonna do something like $100 on a straight and $20-$25 on a parlay. That being said would u rather go with a 2 team parlay daily or a 3-team 2-way round robin?

**dirtyjock** · 03-07-07, 02:45 PM

MARQUETTE -7
SYRACUSE -3.5
SO MISSISSIPPI -3.5

Would be my teams i would go with if I were to play im keeping track from here on out on spreadsheet to see how I would have dont with real money

**Crayzee** · 03-07-07, 03:20 PM

arent you only down 1 unit if both teams lose on an if bet?
up 2 if you win both

**dirtyjock** · 03-07-07, 03:36 PM

sorry i guess i meant to say a reverse playing them both ways

AB
BA

**dirtyjock** · 03-07-07, 11:45 PM

go figure when i dont have money on it
MARQUETTE -7 win
SYRACUSE -3.5 win
SO MISSISSIPPI -3.5 win

lol least i put a 2 teamer with
MARQUETTE -7
SYRACUSE -3.5

**AC1318** · 03-07-07, 11:56 PM

If Your Plays Are Strong
Round Robin Reverse
3 Of 3 In The Money
2 Of 3 Plus Money
1 Of 3 Not So Good
0 Of 3 Shouldn't Be Wagering

I Normally Play Straight Only
Occasional Parlay
Occasional Tease Only To Bring Teams Even Or Plus Like Last Night Minn +3.5, Wash +.5
Straight Straight Straight And Always Same Price Wager

**AC1318** · 03-08-07, 12:01 AM

If Bet Essentially Is 2 Straights
But If Bankroll Limited Some Play Ifs
Thing Is What Side Is The Top Team
Second Is If Top Team Loses But Bottom Team Wins You **** Yourself Right Out Of A Split Down 10% And Now Down 110%
Ifs Are Only Useful Imo Because Of Limited Bankroll
And If This Is The Case I Say Lower The Wager Play Both Straight To Affordable Amount Where This Can Occur

**dirtyjock** · 03-08-07, 01:16 AM

I agree I used 2 way back in the day bet way 2 many bets. I stick to My top play of the day. I did get carried away and did a IF bet with
MARQUETTE -7
SYRACUSE -3.5
But i dont know if im going to keep doing If bets Ill either go to 3 team 2 way round robins or just stick 2 one play a day