Jay Edgar NBA, Monday 03.05.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 1-4, -2.95u
(BOS, GS, LAX, NOK, CHA)
YTD 228-420, +45.68u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 4-1, +2.95u
YTD 343-294 (.538) +33.25u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 SAN 83
2 DAL 73
3 UTH 65
4 CLE 65
5 DET 61
6 CHI 61
7 MIA 58
8 PHX 56
9 MIL 55
10 SAC 55
11 LAX 54
12 TOR 54
13 SEA 53
14 POR 50
15 BOS 50
16 LAC 50
17 NOK 49
18 PHI 47
19 DEN 47
20 ORL 47
21 NJ 44
22 NY 44
23 HOU 43
24 MEM 40
25 ATL 39
26 WAS 39
27 CHA 38
28 GS 33
29 IND 27
30 MIN 27

EDGAR LINES FOR 03.05.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

ORL 5.3/186 over MIL

CLE 6.8/257 over HOU

DET 9.9/490 over GS

MIA 6.9/260 over ATL

UTH 9.2/422 over CHA

LAC 0.5/104 over SAN


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

MIL +225, ORL -155

HOU +319, CLE -210

GS +684, DET -373

ATL +380, MIA -242

CHA +568, UTH -328

SAN +123, LAC +114


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

MIL +519, ORL +116

HOU +981, CLE -113

GS +9999, DET -180

ATL +1509, MIA -128

CHA +9999, UTH -163

SAN +231, LAC +211

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Monday.

Fun fact -- we have two games that are such mismatches by my numbers that a 20%-off line is impossible. That is, the actual moneylines cannot possibly underrate the dog by 20% or more, as my numbers give CHA only a 19% chance to win and GS a 17% chance. So even a line of infinity would be within 20%.

[AC1318]

Funny thing is I like charlotte +13.5

[bigboydan]

I know that Charlotte just flat out sucks on this west coast trip, but I'm riding the Bobcats tonight myself guys.

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
5 GS WIN 720
12 CHA LOSS -100
14 CLE WIN 100
22 LAC LOSS -100


MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 2-2, +6.20u
(CLE, GS, CHA, LAC)
YTD 230-422, +51.88u
(since the ASB: 21-56, -12.83u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 344-296 (.538) +32.15u
(since the ASB: 36-39 (.480) -6.00u)

[bigboydan]

Well that Charlotte game sure did suck tonight. Gerald Wallace scores 33, and the rest of the Bobcats take the night off. At least the Warriors made me some coin in the pro's tonight.