Jay Edgar NBA, Friday 03.02.07

**Dark Horse** · 03-02-07, 12:32 AM

Jay, did you have similar results in previous years before and after the All Star break?

Just wondering, because different approaches seem to work for different parts of the season.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-02-07, 06:56 AM

DH, the answer is sort of.

I didn't begin any of this until the middle of last season. The original approach was similar, though it was then substantially revised this last offseason. But yes, last year it did seem to turn south toward the end of the season (meaning the second half of March.) I did not do the same level or recordkeeping last year, and the method itself was different in some ways, so I really can't drill down any farther.

I wasn't doing any of this stuff for several years prior to that. On a somewhat-related note (and I've mentioned this once before), one of the things I looked at when getting back in to the NBA in late 2005 was the Wagerline Consensus picks. I expected to find something fadeable. To my great surprise, in the 2005-06 season the NBA sides selections of that "Top 10%" group began the season hot. White-hot. Using just the plays that were preferred by a 60-40% margin or greater, it was scary -- something right around 60% winners until sometime in early January, and which point it turned on a dime. Those picks could not buy a cover for a long stretch after that -- then I got more into midwifing by own method into the world and stopped following them.

I doesn't thrill me to say it, but what's happened in the last couple of weeks to this method reminds me of that. It does feel as if this thing has lost its edge as a tool for this 06-07 season.

It is at +75.5 units on the year at this point, down from the high of +119.21. There have been negative swings before:

Nov 8-14
-21.03u

Dec 7-12
-20.62u

Jan 20-23
-19.45u

Feb 9-14
-21.55u

but this one is slightly more violent and sustained

Feb 22-Mar 1
-32.04u

and it feels as if the ugly-duckling teams that the system relies on can't be trusted at this stage of the season.

**bigboydan** · 03-02-07, 12:30 PM

Unfortunately were seeing the signs of the post all-star break factor playing in the mix now guys.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-03-07, 02:06 AM

% TEAM ATS ML
6 NOK LOSS -100
6 MEM PUSH -100
8 IND LOSS -100
8 SAC WIN 270
10 NY WIN 100
14 ORL LOSS -100
17 ATL WIN -100
21 MIA WIN 142

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Friday, 3-5, +0.12u
(MEM, ATL, NY, MIA, ORL, NOK, IND, SAC)
YTD 225-412, +50.07u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Friday, 4-3-1, +0.85u
YTD 335-291 (.535) +28.40u