Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 02.27.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 1-5, -2.43u
(TOR, MEM, ATL, BOS, POR, CHA)
YTD 221-395, +56.19u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 2-4, -2.20u
YTD 328-279 (.540) +35.05u

The last six games by the Spurs is as good a stretch as any team has had all year. They are once again deadly to oppose, along with the Mavs and (maybe) the Suns (again).


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES

1 SAN 77
2 DAL 72
3 DET 64
4 TOR 64
5 CLE 62
6 UTH 61
7 LAX 61
8 SEA 57
9 MIA 56
10 NOK 55
11 CHI 55
12 HOU 51
13 PHX 50
14 NJ 48
15 ORL 48
16 DEN 48
17 POR 47
18 NY 45
19 SAC 45
20 CHA 45
21 MEM 44
22 MIL 43
23 ATL 43
24 BOS 42
25 GS 41
26 PHI 40
27 WAS 39
28 MIN 37
29 LAC 37
30 IND 36

EDGAR LINES FOR 02.26.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

IND 0.5/104 over PHX

CLE 5.6/194 over NOK

NJ 4.8/172 over WAS

MIN 0.1/102 over DAL

MIL 5.2/182 over GS


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

PHX +123, IND +114

NOK +236, CLE -162

WAS +208, NJ -145

DAL +120, MIN +117

GS +219, MIL -152



20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Teams this strongly preferred by the Edgar Line have not performed as well as teams preferred by less.)

PHX +231, IND +210

NOK +559, CLE +112

WAS +460, NJ +125

DAL +224, MIN +217

GS +498, MIL +119

[bigboydan]

Lets get'um on Tuesday really good Jay

[DrSlamm]

does 0-5 count as getting them real good?

[Jay Edgar]

I didn't bet anything today (in airplanes again), so I had no idea where the %-OFF numbers landed until everything was over. Got to admit it felt like a "win" that the method managed to avoid getting tagged with the Wizards and Hornets.

And if you're still wading in there full-bore against Dallas, Phoenix, or San Antonio, then you haven't been paying much attention.

Overall, the plays are down from the high of +119 units on Feb. 9 to the current +85 units. If this were a stock, you'd be feeling a "sell" signal by now. Whether we get a solid "buy" signal before the end of the regular season remains to be seen.


% TEAM ATS ML
6 GS LOSS -100
16 MIN LOSS -100
23 IND LOSS -100

MONEYLINE PLAYS (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 0-3, -3.00u
(GS, IND, MIN)
YTD 221-398, +53.19u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 0-3, -3.15u
YTD 328-282 (.538) +31.90

[DrSlamm]

pacers were up 16 with 6 min left in the 3rd btw

[onlooker]

pacers were up 16 with 6 min left in the 3rd btw

Thanks for turning the knife DrS.

[Jay Edgar]

pacers were up 16 with 6 min left in the 3rd btw

Interesting. And unusual for the Suns. Maybe that's a sign of weakness for them and ray of hope for the teams we're supposed to be backing against them.

[The HG]

And if you're still wading in there full-bore against Dallas, Phoenix, or San Antonio, then you haven't been paying much attention.

Interestingly, though, according to my records, those 3 teams are not too off the charts in terms of ATS performance. Phoenix is 33-24, which is great, but not as great as Toronto (36-20). Then I have Dallas at 29-23, good but comparable to NJ, NORL, and MIA. And then I have San Antonio at just 29-27.

Why do you think your ratings system does so well with non-elite teams, but seems to then lose it's effectiveness when dealing with the elites, despite the elites being good ATS but not off-the-charts good? Combined I have the three teams at 91-74 ATS (55.2%), very good obviously, but it's not clear why your method would have so many games go against them and lose, as opposed to having that happen with lesser teams of comparable ATS performance (TOR, NJ, NORL, MIA).

Any thoughts?

[Jay Edgar]

I'm going to think about that for a while . . . .