Thoughts on MIA / NYK?

**AC1318** · 02-26-07, 03:57 PM

like miami +3

**Dark Horse** · 02-26-07, 04:24 PM

MIA +3 was my early lean. I like Heat for the next week at least, as they band together to make up for loss of Wade and try to reach playoffs. But tonight, without rest, could be a tough spot for these old guys.

Also, consider MSG effect on the refs. The calls in NY aren't exactly known for favoring the road team. I was on MIA yesterday, and couldn't believe how many times the Cavs didn't get the continuation on layups, instead having to settle for two FT's. It was almost as if they changed the rules just for this game. So yesterday's win over Cavs was somewhat orchestrated/inflated.

Knicks have pretty much owned Heat this season. The last time Miami visited here they lost by 20 pts. And the last time NYK lost at home was to PHX, more than a month ago. They failed to cover (by 1 pt) to MIL in their last home game, but with Redd back in the lineup MIL lines are red flagged for a while.

I think Knicks cover with ease, but will probably be passing because David Lee is on IL. That guy is huge on the boards.

**bigboydan** · 02-26-07, 04:46 PM

I too am liking the Heat in this game myself.

**AC1318** · 02-26-07, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

MIA +3 was my early lean. I like Heat for the next week at least, as they band together to make up for loss of Wade and try to reach playoffs. But tonight, without rest, could be a tough spot for these old guys.

Also, consider MSG effect on the refs. The calls in NY aren't exactly known for favoring the road team. I was on MIA yesterday, and couldn't believe how many times the Cavs didn't get the continuation on layups, instead having to settle for two FT's. It was almost as if they changed the rules just for this game. So yesterday's win over Cavs was somewhat orchestrated/inflated.

Knicks have pretty much owned Heat this season. The last time Miami visited here they lost by 20 pts. And the last time NYK lost at home was to PHX, more than a month ago. They failed to cover (by 1 pt) to MIL in their last home game, but with Redd back in the lineup MIL lines are red flagged for a while.

I think Knicks cover with ease, but will probably be passing because David Lee is on IL. That guy is huge on the boards.

Lets not forget the knicks played yesterday as well at nets and although NY won the last meeting by 20 miami won the game before that by 18 I also played miami yesterday and will have to stick with them here as well, miami does post a 5-1 at new york the last 6 straight up so +3 more I will take my chances on the heat NY home record at 15-13 is not impressive and shows they can lose at home as well as win plus I don't think the will beat miami twice in a row especially after laying them an ass whipping last time out. SHAQ has something to prove and that is he can win without wade.

**Illusion** · 02-26-07, 04:51 PM

I think the game will be fairly close tonight, but I think NY covers the 3.

**Dark Horse** · 02-26-07, 06:37 PM

Line now 4 pts.

**The HG** · 02-26-07, 07:35 PM

As far as the side is concerned, NY -4 is about right. But here's an interesting quote from Riley on how Miami will try to cope without Wade:

"We played, I thought, one of the best defensive games of the year," Heat coach Pat Riley said. "We really have to try to control tempo, slow it down and grind it out defensively, and rebound the basketball. That's going to take a different disposition than we've had in the past."

So I'll be on the lookout for unders with Miami in the near future.

**Dark Horse** · 02-26-07, 08:05 PM

Yes, but opponents will want to speed up the tempo. Not that hard to run Shaq, and those other old guys, off the floor. Yesterday, Cleveland and its defensive coach played right into the Miami playbook.

**The HG** · 02-26-07, 08:15 PM

Indeed, DH, no doubt about that. It's good to be aware of what Riley has in mind though.

Miami won't be able to control the tempo in too many games, but like the Cleveland game last night, if they face a team that won't try to force the issue, we may see some under value with them. For instance, March 2 vs Det, if the number is in the upper 180s, or March 7 vs Chi, if the number is in the low 190s, there may well be value with the under.

**Crayzee** · 02-26-07, 09:45 PM

c'mon heat!

heat +4
heat 2 half-+1