Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 02.14.07

**onlooker** · 02-14-07, 12:08 AM

A big slate on V-Day. How nice.

**bigboydan** · 02-14-07, 12:12 AM

Lets just hope they all fall our way guys

**onlooker** · 02-14-07, 12:14 AM

I will be keeping up to date on the games from dinner. Chopping on steak and lobster and refreshing on my Treo.

**Jay Edgar** · 02-14-07, 02:55 PM

Pinch me, the method just may tell us to play the Phoenix Suns tonight. For the first time all year.

Lots of moneylines currently hovering in that 5% neighborhood.

PHI, POR, MIN, SAC, CLE, ATL, and GS all may or may not end up being graded as plays when the night is over. NJ, CHA, DET, and MIL seem fairly certain to be graded as such.

Just bear in mind, anyone who's interested, that the 5% mark is an arbitrary cutoff (and in reality it is more like the 4.5% mark, as everthing is rounded), and the closing number is an arbitrary grading method.

My numbers say that the current prices on those teams are something of a bargain -- if the line moves against them it will be a little bit more of a bargain, if the line moves for them it will be a little bit less of a bargain.

Do with the info what you will, and good luck.

**bside** · 02-14-07, 10:31 PM

OUCH rough start to the evening

**DrSlamm** · 02-14-07, 11:26 PM

trailblazers and grizzlies and nets can all suck my cock.. TWO .5 pt losses today

**bigboydan** · 02-14-07, 11:29 PM

I really feel sorry for those who had the Cavs on the ML tonight. It reminded me of that Bucks/Mavs game last night all over again.

**Jay Edgar** · 02-15-07, 12:51 AM

Well, that was fairly nasty. From a high of (I think) +124 units YTD at the end of January, we've dropped 20%.

Not sure what if anything is behind the recent struggles. It does seem to me that the lines are tighter. ANd for some reason it's been several days since we've had any +300 or better ML winners.

It also seems as if there's been a truckload of bad luck in recent days, at least with the graded plays over the full game. Using the same teams in the first half has been better, and the teams not quite qualifying -- the 4% teams --have done better.

(Tonight's 4% teams -- PHI, MIN, CLE, GS -- finish as net gainers of 1.84u.)

Anyway, we'll limp through tomorrow and take a break.

%OFF TEAM ATS ML
5 POR LOSS -100
5 ATL WIN 178
6 SAC LOSS -100
6 PHX LOSS -100
8 DET LOSS -164
14 MIL LOSS -100
15 NJ LOSS -100
16 MEM LOSS -100
17 CHA WIN 117

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Wedenesday, 2-7, -4.69u
(NJ, CHA, MEM, POR, DET, MIL, SAC, PHX, ATL)
YTD 208-364, +63.69u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Wednesday, 2-7, -5.35u
YTD 305-257 (.543) +37.15u

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NOTE on late edit: Though nobody may care except me, I double-checked Vegas Insider's listing for the official closing money line on all the near-5% plays and discovered that ATL closed at +178 and thus qualified. Anyway, as I mentioned before, this is all in the serivce of some objective recordkeeping standard. For those inclined to follow any of this, my recommendation with the near-5% games is to decide earlier in the day whether you like them or not and, if you do, get the best price you can whenever you can.

**DrSlamm** · 02-15-07, 01:27 AM

thankfully i played all 4 of those.. but still a rough day... especially with the close beats and total meltdowns some of these teams threw up

**onlooker** · 02-15-07, 01:30 AM

Things usually start getting tight around and after the ASB. So really no surprise, but the heavy amount of chokes in the 4th havent helped a bit.

Good to see a choker in the 4th helped you out in that Atlanta Hawks game. Clippers choked it out in the 4th tonight.

**Jay Edgar** · 02-15-07, 01:36 AM

Yeah, file that one away for the Hawks with a gold star. Most road teams, as we've seen, haven't had much fight in them at the end of their trip right before the break. But these guys have been down so long that it appears as if now they smell blood.

Plus, there is something very amiss with the Clippers. Like some other clubs (Nets) they may be in a bad mental state until the trading deadline passes.

**bside** · 02-15-07, 09:17 AM

How about the Clip losing their only home game so far in February. 2-6 in their last eight.