Jay Edgar NBA, Monday 02.12.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 4-3, +3.90u
(MIA, POR, LAC, CLE, BOS, PHI, CHI)
YTD 205-350, +72.61u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 5-2, +2.90u
YTD 302-245 (.552) +44.75u


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES)
1 CLE 70
2 DAL 66
3 DET 66
4 TOR 61
5 MIA 59
6 UTH 59
7 NY 56
8 CHI 54
9 SAN 54
10 SAC 54
11 NOK 53
12 LAX 53
13 POR 51
14 MIN 51
15 NJ 47
16 ORL 47
17 LAC 47
18 DEN 46
19 MEM 46
20 PHX 46
21 ATL 45
22 GS 43
23 PHI 42
24 SEA 42
25 IND 40
26 CHA 37
27 MIL 37
28 HOU 31
29 BOS 30
30 WAS 30

EDGAR LINES FOR 02.12.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

DET 7.1/268 over LAC

DEN 5.6/196 over GS

UTH 6.1/218 over ATL

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

LAC +336, DET -219

GS +237, DEN -163

ATL +266, UTH -180


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

LAC +1096, DET -118

GS +565, DEN +111

ATL +688, UTH +101

[onlooker]

We got some tired doggies tomorrow. All three played tonight and are on the road. While the three home teams were off today. Should be a interesting night tomorrow.

[Jay Edgar]

Agreed.

Over the last 15 years in the NBA, road teams in BxB win 7% less frequently than road teams overall. (Something like 35% compared with 42% -- the exact numbers aren't at my fingertips.) But those numbers are built into my model and these lines. Still, 7% may not be enough, especially in the case of ATL, who is playing 3-in-4 and is already 2-0 and guaranteed a successful 4-game trip no matter what.

LAC is 2-4 and this is the finale of a 7 game trip in which they've beaten only the two worst teams (BOS and PHI), and just barely each time.

GS is taking a 1-game trip after just getting home last Thursday from a 2-4 trip

[DrSlamm]

why wasnt sacramento counted yesterday Closer at -204 i believe

[onlooker]

why wasnt sacramento counted yesterday Closer at -204 i believe

It was a -202 5% strike price DS. Some places it would qualify, but pinnacle must of closed above it.

[Jay Edgar]

"

[onlooker]

"

[bigboydan]

Interesting slate tonight thats for sure. I might just end up passing on tonights NBA card guys.

[wrongturn]

Looks like all 3 dogs are in play tonight, right?

[Jay Edgar]

Looks that way.

[Jay Edgar]

Wow.

Warriors +5.5 for the first half goes belly-up even though GS has the ball with 17 seconds left, down by 3, with the shot clock off. They don't hold for one, and the Nuggets rebound and drill a 3 of their own at the buzzer.



Not a good sign.

[bside]

I had Denver at -6 for the first half. Got the push with that 3 at 0.2 seconds. Whew

[Jay Edgar]

I had Denver at -6 for the first half. Got the push with that 3 at 0.2 seconds. Whew

WTG, BSide.

Freakin' Nellie. Jesus.

[Jay Edgar]

Not seeing a whole lot of reason to wait . . .

GAP TEAM ATS ML
9 ATL LOSS -100
13 LAC LOSS -100
16 GS LOSS -100

==============================

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 0-3, -3.00u
(LAC, GS, ATL)
YTD 205-353, +69.61u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 0-3, -3.15u
YTD 302-248 (.549) +41.60u

[bside]

Carmelo did just go to the locker room but I don't see it effecting the outcome.

[onlooker]

We got some tired doggies tomorrow. All three played tonight and are on the road. While the three home teams were off today. Should be a interesting night tomorrow.

Not so interesting, but really no surprise. Monday is a day to forget, but at least a 0'fer comes out of a light card.