Jay Edgar NBA, Monday 02.05.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Sunday, 1-0, +2.30u
(ATL)
YTD 189-324, +68.61u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Sunday, 1-0, +1.00u
YTD 281-225 (.553), +44.75u


POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 DET 65
2 PHX 61
3 DAL 60
4 MIA 58
5 LAC 57
6 UTH 57
7 HOU 56
8 TOR 56
9 IND 56
10 CHI 55
11 CLE 55
12 NOK 54
13 SAN 52
14 MIN 51
15 SAC 51
16 LAX 51
17 ORL 50
18 NY 50
19 WAS 48
20 POR 48
21 CHA 48
22 PHI 47
23 MEM 45
24 DEN 44
25 GS 44
26 ATL 44
27 SEA 42
28 NJ 38
29 BOS 32
30 MIL 31


EDGAR LINES FOR 02.05.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

PHI 6.1/218 over NJ

IND 6.5/246 over GS

ATL 1.5/111 over LAX

WAS 3.2/140 over SEA

MIA 6.1/218 over CHA

HOU 3.7/151 over MIN

UTH 4.0/162 over CHI

DEN 1.9/120 over PHX

SAC 3.7/151 over NOK

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

NJ +266, PHI -180

GS +304, IND -202

LAX +131, ATL +107

SEA +167, WAS -118

CHA +267, MIA -180

MIN +181, HOU -127

CHI +195, UTH -136

PHX +143, DEN -102

NOK +180, SAC -127


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

NJ +668, PHI +101

GS +886, IND +109

LAX +250, ATL +196

SEA +338, WAS +153

CHA +690, MIA +101

MIN +376, HOU +142

CHI +418, UTH +132

PHX +276, DEN +179

NOK +374, SAC +142

[trustbutverify]

Jay- do you happen to know the avg price on your moneyline plays? Favs and dogs included.

[Jay Edgar]

Jay- do you happen to know the avg price on your moneyline plays? Favs and dogs included.

Sorry TBV that's not readily available from the running record I keep. But I can determine that the average (not the median) pointspread for all 515 plays is +5.2, so you can guess at the ML from there.

EDIT:
And the median pointspread for the 515 plays is 5.5.

The correlated no-vig moneyline for a 5.5 point road dog is +190 and for a 5.5 point home dog is +234.

So while I can't easily say for sure what the actual MLs were, it's reasonable to assume that they'd average out somewhere in that neighborhood.

[bside]

Jay just noticed you have NJ as a play at +266 on both 5% off and 20% off

[Jay Edgar]

Ah, the daily typo.

Now fixed. Thanks.

[bigboydan]

Going with the Hawks Jay

[onlooker]

So far looks like 8 of the 9 games will be a play today. Going to be a busy night for you Jay. Good luck.

[Jay Edgar]

Going with the Hawks Jay

Makes sense, though they really suck at home. Maybe because it's a freakin' morgue in the arena, and has been since the franchise moved from your St. Louis.

[onlooker]

It might be filled more then normal Jay, with Kobe in town.

Lakers are it the middle of their long road trip out east, and maybe over looking the poor ol Hawks to their next game in Detroit.

[Jay Edgar]

It might be filled more then normal Jay, with Kobe in town.

Good point.
As long as they don't chant "MVP," like they did last week in what used to be Boston.

[onlooker]

As long as they don't chant "MVP," like they did last week in what used to be Boston.

I didnt say they would be cheering for the Hawks.

[Jay Edgar]

Doesn't look so bad on paper, but a couple of very close beats on ATS plays for me, and more of the same on totals.

GAP TEAM ATS ML
5 UTH WIN 100
6 NOK LOSS -100
6 GS WIN 320
8 MIN LOSS -100
12 PHI WIN 100
15 CHA LOSS -100
17 SEA LOSS -100
18 ATL LOSS -100
36 DEN WIN -100

========================
MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 3-6, -0.80u
(PHI, GS, ATL, SEA, CHA, MIN, UTH, DEN, NOK)
YTD 192-330, +67.81u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 4-5, -1.25u
YTD 285-230 (.553), +43.50u

[DrSlamm]

would have been nice to cash the hornets eh Jay?

[Jay Edgar]

would have been nice to cash the hornets eh Jay?

Indeed. Lots to whine about last night. But at least they're close enough to whine about.